After the 2003-2004 frenzy that lasted about 18 months (sound familar?), the prices leveled off for the next couple of years – until the easy money could support it no more.
With (slightly) higher mortgage rates and lagging buyer enthusiasm both helping to temper the frenzy now, we will probably see a similar pricing plateau take place – and it’s already underway (click for larger image):
SAN DIEGO:
CARMEL VALLEY:
SE CARLSBAD:
Everything should stay orderly and on track, as long as nobody shouts ‘fire’.
What do you think the appreciation will look like as we plateau? Given 21% yoy in sd, half of that or 10% in the next 12 months and halved again or 5% for the 12 months after that or a steeper drop off? Also zillow not only had their zestimate but also thei appreciation forecast. How accurate do you think their forecast is?
I’m going to answer that in the next post, and it will be based on the one constant in every market, good or bad.
I think what you are seeing now is seasonal. It’s still very active in my neck of the NCCSD woods, much more than I thought it would be given the appreciation that’s happened.