Delinquencies and Defaults

Whatever happened to investigative reporting? 

Today’s story on cnbc.com about rising delinquencies includes the same lightweight quotes from another ivory-tower guy, and if you just read the headline it sounds like the sky is falling again. In the text it says that the second-quarter delinquency rate increased 0.12% from the previous quarter, but is still down 1.41% from the same period a year ago. 0.12% – that’s it?

They never bother with two important points:

1.  The servicers tell you that you need to go delinquent if you want to loan-mod or short-sell.

2.  The servicers may be carefully regulating the flow of who gets reported as delinquent.

If the policy is to keep kicking the can down the road, it doesn’t matter why or how many people go delinquent, because the servicers can just drip them out as needed.  But it would be nice if the MSM can look into it a little further than just including this opinion (not fact) from the article:

The data suggest that persistently high U.S. unemployment rate is making it harder for people to keep up on their mortgage payments, and offer a grim outlook for a housing sector.

“Mortgage loans that are one payment, or 30 days, past due are very much driven by changes in the labor market, and the increase in these delinquencies clearly reflects the deterioration we saw in the labor market during the second quarter,” Brinkmann said.

We need that guy from Yahoo Sports to cover housing!

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Are delinquencies turning into SFR defaults around North San Diego County’s Coastal region?  On a quarterly basis, it looks like more of the same – they are foreclosing on roughly one SFR per day between Carlsbad and La Jolla:

Quarter NODs Trustee Sales
2Q10 269
109
3Q10 245
90
4Q10 238
71
1Q11 225
117
2Q11 202
59

Here’s how it looks on a monthly graph:

We got excited in 1Q11 thinking that the servicers were increasing the foreclosure rate, only to be disappointed in 2Q11. It looks too uniform and regulated to me.

Romney’s La Jolla House

Hat tip to jp for sending this along, from the U-T:

GOP presidential contender Mitt Romney, scheduled to attend a series of fundraisers this weekend in San Diego, is also working on plans to nearly quadruple the size of his $12 million oceanfront manse in La Jolla.

Romney has filed an application with the city to bulldoze his 3,009-square-foot, single-story home at 311 Dunemere Dr. and replace it with a two-story, 11,062-square-foot structure. No date has been set to consider the proposed coastal development and site development permits, which must be approved by the city.

The former governor of Massachusetts purchased the home three years ago. According to a description from the listing agent, the Spanish-style residence at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac is sophisticated and understated in its décor, “offering complete privacy and unsurpassed elegance.”

Tentative plans call for new retaining walls and a relocated driveway, but would retain the existing lap pool and spa.

“This offering represents a truly unique opportunity for a buyer who appreciates the scarcity of this caliber of real estate,” the listing said.

Constructed in 1936, the three-bedroom, 4.5-bathroom home was among the first built in the Barber tract neighborhood, according to the La Jolla Historical Society, and has a stretch of lawn sloping to the white sand beach.

“I wanted to be where I could hear the waves,” Romney told a gaggle of media last year at a book signing in University City. “As a boy we spent summers on Lake Huron and I could hear the crashing waves at night. It was one of my favorite things in the world; being near the water and the waves was something I very badly wanted to experience again.”

(more…)

Move-Up Buyers

Excerpts from the nctimes.comhat tip Eric!

Anyone want to buy a dream home?

Anyone?

With so many homeowners deep in debt, and so many more worried about the national economy, few people want bigger houses at current prices, and without that midlevel demand, there will be no steady increase in prices, said real estate agents and analysts interviewed last week.

In a traditional market, a segment of homeowners, with rising incomes and growing families, would sell their older places and use the profits as down payments on larger, more comfortable homes. But with local house prices well down from a 2007 peak, potential move-up buyers carry mortgages larger than what they could get selling their houses.

Also, local buyers may have a new outlook on housing: With so much uncertainty in the economy, they may decide their current houses are big enough.

Some homeowners have decided they don’t want to move up. Potential homebuyers worry that the national economy is about to get worse and fear losing their jobs.

Others have decided they like their house enough to stay put.

“The whole society has taken a really conservative turn,” said Jim Klinge, a Carlsbad real estate agent who blogs about the industry. “I think there’s a lot of people who, a few years ago, thought they were a candidate to move up, and now they find their house is adequate and they don’t need to move up. Even if they have a four-bedroom and three kids, you might think they were bulging at the seams. They’re finding they can make do.”

Klinge made another point: The move-up market is shrunken, but not absent. In his view, the segment will rebound when sellers lower prices.  “Any market that is ‘soft’ is where sellers are overly optimistic on their list prices,” he wrote in an email.

Rancho Santa Fe real estate agent Polly Rogers said she has clients upgrading their houses, but without selling their old properties.  “I’ve seen a number of buyers who don’t have to sell their house right now; they’re in a position where they can rent it out for their (mortgage) payments,” she said.

These buyers see low prices and low interest rates, and they want to snag a deal.

Ben Allen spent a year making low, all-cash offers on houses before he found one in 4S Ranch, a half-mile from his old house.

“When nobody wants to buy is the best time to buy,” Allen said. “The house I purchased is an upgrade —- more space for my family.”

Garage Organizer

David Ellis recently installed this set of garage cabinets in a client’s home.

If you want to skip the video tour, click here for his website, which is very thorough with photos.

To see videos of other vendors, click on “Vendors” category below.

NSDCC Marches On

Even though the inventory of decent buys seems to get more bleak with every passing day, the number of closings have been holding up pretty well around North San Diego County’s Coastal region.

With all the commotion in the stock market, there is sentiment on Wall Street that now is a bad time to sell……stocks.

Don’t let that spill over to decisions about selling real estate around NSDCC – we need inventory!

Detached closed sales between August 1-15:

Year # of Sales Avg $/sf
2005
113
$478/sf
2006
114
$466/sf
2007
116
$444/sf
2008
76
$407/sf
2009
92
$354/sf
2010
97
$389/sf
2011
98
$436/sf

For those potential sellers who might think, “maybe I should wait until things pick up a bit”, let’s note that 30-year mortgage rates are now the lowest they have been in 50 years, and that the media will insist on pushing more economic drama. When Europe takes its next tumble, it’ll put a chill in the market here.

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