Whatever happened to investigative reporting? 

Today’s story on cnbc.com about rising delinquencies includes the same lightweight quotes from another ivory-tower guy, and if you just read the headline it sounds like the sky is falling again. In the text it says that the second-quarter delinquency rate increased 0.12% from the previous quarter, but is still down 1.41% from the same period a year ago. 0.12% – that’s it?

They never bother with two important points:

1.  The servicers tell you that you need to go delinquent if you want to loan-mod or short-sell.

2.  The servicers may be carefully regulating the flow of who gets reported as delinquent.

If the policy is to keep kicking the can down the road, it doesn’t matter why or how many people go delinquent, because the servicers can just drip them out as needed.  But it would be nice if the MSM can look into it a little further than just including this opinion (not fact) from the article:

The data suggest that persistently high U.S. unemployment rate is making it harder for people to keep up on their mortgage payments, and offer a grim outlook for a housing sector.

“Mortgage loans that are one payment, or 30 days, past due are very much driven by changes in the labor market, and the increase in these delinquencies clearly reflects the deterioration we saw in the labor market during the second quarter,” Brinkmann said.

We need that guy from Yahoo Sports to cover housing!



Are delinquencies turning into SFR defaults around North San Diego County’s Coastal region?  On a quarterly basis, it looks like more of the same – they are foreclosing on roughly one SFR per day between Carlsbad and La Jolla:

Quarter NODs Trustee Sales
2Q10 269
3Q10 245
4Q10 238
1Q11 225
2Q11 202

Here’s how it looks on a monthly graph:

We got excited in 1Q11 thinking that the servicers were increasing the foreclosure rate, only to be disappointed in 2Q11. It looks too uniform and regulated to me.

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