Waters Not The End

In this video, you’ll hear how I am going to expand my service to homebuyers.

The limited inventory, combined with the public nature of this blog, keeps a throttle on what is available here.  Frankly, I think that both you and I are bored of looking at these run-out REO losers, and want to see some quality homes that you might consider buying!

Thus, I have created a private version of this blog for my clients, with the intent to view more videos packed with commentary to advance your knowledge and experience of the market.  Hopefully, you might even see a house you want to buy, just like shadash!

The public version of bubbleinfo.com will continue here, with videos.  There is plenty of general information to discuss – trends, stats, etc – and as readers get closer to wanting to buy a house, we’ll get you involved with the real contenders on the other site.  When you are ready, contact me and we’ll get you started.

I’m guessing that readers will feel like the public version of bubbleinfo.com will be lightweight, and the real meat and potatoes will move to the private website.  But that is not the case.

On the private side are videos that would never been seen in public, because they are proprietary.  It will be similar to actually being in the car with me as a client, and getting the real advice I’d give you one-on-one.  I have never done that here, and never will.  Bubbleinfo.com has always been a chance to get familar with Jim the Realtor, and if you like what you see/hear, then contact me about representation.

I appreciate where we have been, and want to continue with you on this path.  At the same time, I want to expand the quality of service, knowing that there is more available for us to discover about the homebuying process using an on-line format. 

How will I find the time?  The only difference will be more video of what I’m doing every day – at some point, it could be live streaming all day long!

Could there be conflict if more than one client likes something they see?  We’re covering a large area and a wide spread of price points, so it’s not too likely, but if it were to happen it’ll be first-come, first serve.

I hope you will see this as a logical expansion of what we have started here, with the goal being to better serve my clients.  I want to include you!

Pinata Swinging

Hat tip to Susie for sending this in from the nytimes.com:

The Obama administration is considering further actions to strengthen the housing market, but the bar is high: plans must help a broad swath of homeowners, stimulate the economy and cost next to nothing.

One proposal would allow millions of homeowners with government-backed mortgages to refinance them at today’s lower interest rates, about 4 percent, according to two people briefed on the administration’s discussions who asked not to be identified because they were not allowed to talk about the information.

A wave of refinancing could be a strong stimulus to the economy, because it would lower consumers’ mortgage bills right away and allow them to spend elsewhere. But such a sweeping change could face opposition from the regulator who oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and from investors in government-backed mortgage bonds.

Administration officials said on Wednesday that they were weighing a range of proposals, including changes to its previous refinancing programs to increase the number of homeowners taking part. They are also working on a home rental program that would try to shore up housing prices by preventing hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes from flooding the market. That program is further along — the administration requested ideas for execution from the private sector earlier this month.

But refinancing could have far greater breadth, saving homeowners, by one estimate, $85 billion a year. Despite record low interest rates, many homeowners have been unable to refinance their loans either because they owe more than their houses are now worth or because their credit is tarnished.  

Exactly how a refinancing plan might work is still under discussion. It is unclear, for example, whether people who are delinquent on their mortgages would be eligible or whether lenders would administer it. Federal officials have consistently overestimated the number of households that would be helped by their various housing assistance programs.

A working group of housing experts across several federal agencies could recommend one or both proposals, or come up with new ones. Or it might decide to do nothing.

Investors may suspect a plan is in the works. Fannie and Freddie mortgage bonds had been trading well above their face value because so few people were refinancing, keeping returns on the bonds high. But those bond prices dropped sharply this week.

Administration discussions about housing proposals have taken on added urgency this summer because the housing market is continuing to deteriorate. On Wednesday, the government said that prices of homes with government-backed mortgages fell 5.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since 2009. More than one in five homeowners with mortgages owe more than their homes are worth. Some analysts are now predicting waves of foreclosures and a continuing slide in home prices.

There is not much time to help the market before the 2012 election, and given Congressional resistance to other types of stimulus, housing may be the only economic fix in reach. Federal programs to assist homeowners have been regarded as ineffective so far, and they are complex.

Some economists say that with housing prices and interest rates at affordable levels, only fear is keeping consumers out of the market. Frank E. Nothaft, the chief economist at Freddie Mac, said the federal action could instill confidence.

“It almost seems to me you want to have some type of announcement or policy, program or something from the federal government that provides that clear signal that we are here supporting the housing market and this is indeed a good time to really consider buying,” Mr. Nothaft said.

The refinancing idea has been around since at least 2008, but proponents say the recent drop in interest rates to below 4 percent may breathe new life into the plan.

“This is the best stimulus out there because it doesn’t increase the deficit, it accomplishes monetary policy, and it reduces defaults in housing,”  said Christopher J. Mayer, an economist at the Columbia Business School. “So I think this is low-hanging fruit.” Mr. Mayer and a colleague, Glenn Hubbard,  who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, proposed an early version of the plan.

The idea is appealing because it would not necessarily require Congressional action. It also would not tap any of the $45.6 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Funds that was set aside to help struggling homeowners. Only $22.9 billion of that pool has been spent or pledged so far, and fewer than 1.7 million loans have been modified under federal programs. But Andrea Risotto, a Treasury spokeswoman, said whatever was left would be used to reduce the federal deficit.

A broader criticism of a refinancing expansion is that it would not do enough to address the two main drivers of foreclosures: homes worth less than their mortgages, and a sudden loss of income, like unemployment. American homeowners currently owe some $700 billion more than their homes are worth.

 

Sales Momentum

Bubbleinfo.com is undergoing change!

Reader no-techie saw that we are trying to implement a new feature above to use with mobile phones.  The intent is to enable you to input an address of a house you see, and be able to check the listing, or zestimate, with one click.  Of course the listing side didn’t go smoothly, so it’s still under construction, but try the zillow button if you like – you have to include the zip code too.

Secondly, we have Rick Campbell’s market report linked in the right column now. 

Click on “San Diego Monthly Report“, under Real Estate Advice  >>>>>>>>>>>

In the top left corner of his report, you can adjust the markets to your preference.  The large graph shows the active inventory over time, which helps illuminate why the market isn’t tanking – there aren’t enough people who want to sell at today’s prices.

He also carries this graph below of 12-month moving averages, which will be very interesting to watch now that you can get 30-year mortgages in the low-4% range:

Banks Rule

Hat tip to Kingside for sending this along, from the WaPo:

Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is leading foreclosure settlement negotiations with the nation’s largest banks on behalf of all 50 states, abruptly removed New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman from the coalition’s executive committee Tuesday, saying he had “actively worked to undermine” the group’s efforts in recent months.

Miller did not speak with Schneiderman before he sent word about the decision. Rather, Iowa assistant Attorney General Patrick Madigan e-mailed counterparts around the country just before 1 p.m. announcing that New York had been booted from the key group of states overseeing the negotiations, “effective immediately.”

Despite the move, New York could still support whatever deal emerges. At the same time, it makes the path more difficult for Miller and others if they are forced to move forward without one of the most influential states, not to mention one hit hard by the foreclosure crisis and home to many of the financial firms under scrutiny. The absence of New York also could diminish the size of any settlement.

Miller’s decision underscores tensions that have boiled over as officials try to finalize the multibillion-dollar deal with the banks whose widespread mortgage servicing problems — from appalling customer service to hundreds of thousands of “robosigned” documents — sparked national outrage last fall.

A central issue is how broad a release from future legal claims banks should receive in exchange for agreeing to overhaul their mortgage servicing practices and paying tens of billions of dollars in penalties.

Schneiderman, who has undertaken investigations into the way banks bundled and sold pools of mortgages, known as securitization, has said any settlement should not release banks from liability for all their mortgage-related sins committed before the financial crisis. Attorneys general from several other states, including Delaware, Nevada and Massachusetts, have expressed similar concerns.

Inherent in Schneiderman’s warnings was an implication that officials negotiating the current deal are willing to give away too much, a suggestion that those involved in the talks describe as inaccurate and infuriating. Several people familiar with the talks said those at the negotiating table have never considered granting banks immunity from claims related to the securitization process, nor have they sought to prevent Schneiderman and others from pursuing broader investigations into other issues, such as securitization, fair housing claims and criminal fraud.

“This investigation has been about robosigning and loan modifications for homeowners, so the release in the settlement should mirror that; it should be a narrow release,” said Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan (no relation to Iowa’s Madigan). “It was never intended to serve as a settlement for all the violations that the nation’s banks have engaged in.”

Schneiderman has insisted that too hasty a settlement could let banks off too easily. He wants a more comprehensive investigation into all aspects of the mortgage crisis, followed by a larger settlement that would bring relief both to struggling homeowners and large institutional investors who bought mortgage-backed securities that turned out to be worthless.

Low Appraisals?

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this article from Reuters about the alleged appraisal problems.  These people need to buck up and get a life – low appraisals are the realtors fault for not supplying enough good comps to justify the price:

When Sean McGowan signed a contract to buy a New Jersey home in November, he didn’t expect he’d still be living with his parents nearly a year later.

The deal fell through after two appraisals came in tens of thousands of dollars below the contract price, part of a wider trend of differences over property valuations that is compounding the U.S. housing crisis.

“It was very frustrating. We really wanted to move in,” said McGowan, a 31-year-old real estate lawyer.

Many housing experts say low appraisals are yet another headwind for a housing market already suffering from a plunge in prices, high unemployment and tight credit.

(more…)

Can-Kicking

Another example of how the REO business is working.

This took 5+ months to get to market (it was assigned to us on March 11th), and it still doesn’t look very appealing. 

If the banks were taking a while because they were spending the right money to fix them up to sell for retail price, it might be understandable.  Or if they were watching the calendar, and pushing to get the cheesey ones on the market during the summer selling season, it would be smart too.

But we didn’t get either: 

Follow-Ups

Whatever happened to some of those previous posts we saw? It’s good to go back and see what sold, and for how much, to see if there are any deals being had out there.

Here are some results from April/May posts.:

5855 La Jolla Mesa, La Jolla

4 br/3.5 ba, 3,225sf

WaMu funded a loan of $2.28 million when this sold in October, 2007 for $2,850,000.  Things didn’t work out for the buyer, and he got foreclosed in March, 2011. 

Chase listed it for $1,800,000, and it closed for $1,850,000 cash on May 17th.

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2150 Sunset, Mission Hills

4br/3.5ba, 3,026sf built in 1926

The church-like house on the hill with some ocean view had refinanced several times, eventually getting a $1.35 million loan from Thornburg, who ended up foreclosing in Decemeber, 2010.  It listed for $1,398,500 in February, 2011, and found a buyer after 89 days on market.

It closed for $1,125,000 on June 13th.

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3419 Dove Hollow, Olivenhain

5 br/4 ba, 3,248sf

Remember the old ranchito out at the end of Lone Jack?

It has a good sales history, with improvements along the way:

2001: SP = $855,000

2002: SP = $1,015,000

2004: SP = $1,370,000

After it foreclosed in August, 2010, it listed for $999,000. It was a popular one, and sold right away (DOM = 5).

It closed for $1,000,000 on May 26th.

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860 Capri, Leucadia

4 br/3.5 ba, 2,028sf built in 1971

The former owner paid $945,000 in 2005 for this funky old place near Capri Elementary School, got foreclosed, and was listed for $649,900 by BofA.

It closed for $749,000, on June 22nd, almost $100,000 over list price. The listing agent noted that the buyers received $26,000 for repairs too.

San Diego Housing Commission

Will Carless continues his investigative report on how the City of San Diego is blowing millions:

In late 2008, as foreclosures flooded the local housing market and the nation’s economy hovered on the brink of meltdown, the San Diego City Council scrambled for ideas to tackle the crisis here.

Desperate to show leadership on a red-hot political issue, it turned to its affordable housing agency for help.

The San Diego Housing Commission responded with a plan: It could buy foreclosures and tackle the city’s epidemic head-on. But the commission, which is overseen by a board of unelected appointees, first wanted to be set free.

The agency wanted to buy properties without the City Council’s approval. Waiting as long as 90 days for the council to approve the bids would unnecessarily delay highly competitive deals that had to be done quickly, the commission argued.

The City Council agreed. At a March 2009 public meeting, it approved a new policy for the agency, handing it the power to spend public money buying property with radically reduced oversight. Given that this was about fighting the foreclosure crisis, Councilmen Tony Young and Ben Hueso reasoned that cutting down on bureaucracy made sense.

“Now we’re actually going to address this issue,” Young said then.

In the two and a half years since that meeting, however, the Housing Commission has rarely used its new power to buy foreclosures.

The agency has bought just eight foreclosed single-family homes and one foreclosed apartment building in that time. That’s 45 units out of 756 units the commission has bought or built since then.

Rather than mopping up after the foreclosure crisis, the agency has instead used its new freedom to spend more than $70 million buying non-foreclosed apartment buildings and lending developers tens of millions of dollars to build new affordable apartments.

The commission has been able to make those deals while bypassing the City Council, avoiding the public scrutiny it once would’ve faced.

Click here for the full story:

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/public_safety/pavement/article_f7093c46-cdbd-11e0-b20d-001cc4c03286.html

Razor Auction

From Channel 10:

An architectural marvel that has become one of the most photographed homes in the country is now on the auction block.

razorThe 11,000 square foot home dubbed “The Razor” is hollowed out from the cliffs over Black’s Beach. It boasts floor-to-ceiling glass, polished concrete surfaces and picturesque views.

The home was designed by top architect Wallace Cunningham. It filters light in a way that changes the home’s look depending on the hour.

“To quote Wallace Cunningham, ‘It’s his masterpiece,'” said Hurwitz.

The four-bedroom, six-bath masterpiece also boasts a glass elevator, theater and a two-story guesthouse. The house has been featured in commercials for Calvin Klein and Visa’s Black Card. It has also been showcased in “Architectural Digest.” A commercial for Aston Martin will film later this week.

The home’s owner, software engineer Don Cooksey, spent $34 million in the last decade to build it before he declared bankruptcy and turned it over to a trustee for auction. The bidding will start at $16 million.

The home that has defined luxury now represents another high-priced trend. According to RealtyTrac, million dollar mortgages now make up about 2.3 percent of all foreclosures. That is double the number from 2007, which makes it the fastest growing segment of the foreclosure market.

(psycho-babble alert below – the Razor has been for sale since May, 2008, and been in bankruptcy court for 1+ years)

“What this means is people that had means to sustain an economic downturn are finally being hit,” said Nathan Moeder of The London Group.

However, one owner’s loss is a home buyer’s gain. “I definitely think it’s a steal,” said Hurwitz.

The auction takes place Sept. 28th, and go up in increments of $100,000.

Part of the home, including the kitchen and bathrooms, remain unfinished.

 If you would like more information on the auction, plus photos, visit HurwitzJamesCo.com

The commercials below that feature the house nicely:

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