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NSDCC Million-Dollar Sales

North San Diego County Coastal

The stretch between La Jolla and Carlsbad is an affluent area!

Below is the annual number of houses sold for $1,000,000 or more – and 2015 still has six weeks to go with 214 sales pending! Just the sheer number of higher-end sales is impressive.  General median pricing looks flat though.

Annual Number of Million-Dollar Sales
Median Sales Price

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

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Posted by on Nov 23, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

No Portal Exposure

Have you noticed that some listings aren’t on the real estate portals?

There are two ways that it can happen.

There used to be an agreement between our MLS company, Sandicor, and Zillow/Trulia, to upload our listings automatically.  But as a result of a dispute between them over the last year, there is no auto-upload.  Some agents don’t know that they have to manually upload their listings, or wait for their brokerage to do it for them.

That’s the reason you’ll see a listing on other portals but not Zillow/Trulia.

But some MLS listings aren’t on any portals – even

How does that happen?  Below is a snip of the actual online listing input form.  The red Rs mean that they boxes are required to be completed, and the default answer is ‘Yes’:

internet listing syndication

If you see a sign in a yard, or get a listing direct from the MLS and can’t find it anywhere on the real estate portals, it means that the listing agent has clicked ‘No’ to several boxes to be excluded.  The agent has deliberately chosen out.

Back in 2012, Jim Abbott made waves about listing syndication (LINK), but he sold his company to Carrington earlier this year.  It looks like their listings are being syndicated now.

But there are still other holdouts.  If you are thinking of selling your home, a good question to be asking a potential listing agent, “Will my home be advertised on the real estate portals?”

Get Good Help!

Posted by on Nov 22, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Listing Agent Practices, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim | 4 comments

Zillow San Diego Forecast

The Zillow folks offered up their forecast for the San Diego area.  Below is the actual change in their home-value index for the 12 months ending in September, and then their forecast for 2016:

Snapshot 1 (11-20-2015 7-44 AM)

Snapshot 2 (11-20-2015 7-49 AM)

Are we heading for flatsville?  Let’s see how they did last year.

These were their predicted and actual changes in the ZHVI for the 12 months ending in October, 2015:

Zillow HVI Appreciation Forecast
La Jolla
Solana Beach
San Diego
Del Mar
Carmel Valley

They were pretty close for Del Mar!

Zillow claims to have the most sophisticated data and algorithms, yet they were way off.  It goes to show you how any forecast is really just a guess.

Posted by on Nov 20, 2015 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market | 4 comments

GS Forecast

This looks like a fairly safe forecast – I’ll take the under. From HW:

Goldman Sachs sent an email to clients advising that growth in residential investments through 2016 will be solid, though not as strong as they originally hoped.  Plus, this growth will likely curtail in the years immediately following as the chart below notes.

gold sachs

The residential investment definition includes all new construction, about half the total of all construction, plus home improvement spending and commissions for real estate brokers.

“We are trimming our expectations for 2016 slightly — lowering our forecast for residential investment to 8% from 11% previously — but we still expect housing to be the top performer among the major components of GDP,” writes economist Daan Struyven, in a note to clients. “Although housing starts are likely to increase at a somewhat slower pace than in 2015, a shift in composition to more single-family building should add to residential investment next year.”

The Goldman note states that residential investment growth is hampered by housing starts, which remain below pace to match demand.

Additionally, the rising interest rate environment expected next year, something the Fed is now openly referring to as “normalization,” will impact mortgage applications, but the Goldman note is unclear to what extent.

“We continue to expect housing to be the fastest growing component of GDP next year,” Struyven adds. “Taking all the components together, we forecast a gain of 8% Q4/Q4 for 2016 residential investment, which would add about 0.3 percentage points to overall GDP growth.”

“Our outlook for new construction in 2016 is mixed. On the one hand, we expect positive but lower growth in housing starts, with 100,000 more starts in 2016 than in 2015 (1.3 million in 2016 vs 1.2 million in 2015), compared to a gain of 150,000 in 2015.

This relative slowing reflects three factors. First, the level of housing starts, while still depressed, is getting closer to its equilibrium level, implied by demographics and demolition rates. Second, unemployment should continue to decline, which should foster household formation, but at a slower pace. Third, Fed hikes, and associated higher mortgage rates, may also reduce the pace at which builders increase starts.”

Posted by on Nov 19, 2015 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market | 0 comments


There have been 54 major earthquakes in California since 1900, defined as an earthquake of at least magnitude 6.5, and/or causing loss of life or property damage greater than $200,000, according to the California Geological Survey. The last major earthquake was a magnitude 6.5 and occurred on December 22, 2003 in San Simeon, causing substantial damage in nearby Paso Robles.

With 54 major earthquakes over the past 115+ years, one major earthquake occurs on average every 2.1 years. Therefore, it appears California is well overdue for a major earthquake.

Where will the next big earthquake occur?

Statistically, the next “big one” (of around magnitude 8.0) will occur along the southern end of the San Andreas Fault, according to geologist Pat Abbott of San Diego State University.

Most of California’s populated areas are located in or near an earthquake hazard zone. The exception is California’s Central Valley, encompassing cities like Fresno and Sacramento (property lying east of I-5 north of Delano and south of Redding). Here, you are as safe as you can be (in California) from earthquakes.


The map above shows a broad picture of earthquake fault zones — the yellow and red boxes — in Southern California (the blue boxes are landslide and liquefaction zones and the red boxes are both earthquake and landslide zones).

There are 105 cities in California that contain earthquake hazard zones (view the list here). However, just because a city is listed doesn’t mean that the entire city is in an earthquake hazard zone. To find out if a specific property is located in an earthquake hazard zone or any other hazard zone, view maps at the property’s local planning department.

Read more here:

Posted by on Nov 19, 2015 in Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 5 comments