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Most recent articles

Inventory Watch

Now that the pricing increases have moderated, a slow/stagnant market is likely to prevail.  Sellers typically hire the agent who promises the highest price, and are happy to sit and wait for the lucky sale.

What does it look and feel like?

Check the high-end markets, where stagnation is standard.  You see many of the same houses listed on and off for years, and plenty of inventory.

Today, there are 412 houses for sale over $2,400,000, which is 40% of the overall inventory.  Their number has grown from 309 in early March, and approaching the highs of last September again.

But only 25 have sold in the last 30 days.

Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:

Read More

Posted by on Aug 24, 2015 in Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 3 comments

Video on 85/15

2015-08-21 12.09.03

There have been other projects in Carlsbad that faced an uproar.  This time the complaints have ranged from gnatcatchers, to Indian remains, to increased traffic, to competition for mom-and-pop store owners.

Whatever the gripe, those who oppose had better get to a city council member or two by Tuesday, or it’s going to be over.  The city council has been mum about their votes, but they have been cushy with the developer for three years.

Posted by on Aug 22, 2015 in Carlsbad, Jim's Take on the Market, Local Flavor | 7 comments

Frenzy vs. Frenzy Sales Overlay

Every day we hear some pundit talking about the latest real estate bubble forming.  Can we learn anything from comparing recent sales to those during the bubblicious 2004-2007 era?

graph (56)

Sales were dropping precipitously in 2005 and 2006 after the 2003-2004 run-up.  There was one last blowout at the end of 2006 and into 2007 when Countrywide began pushing the no-doc, 100% financing up to $1,500,000.

When Angelo took away the punch bowl in the middle of 2007, the party was over – you can see how sales tanked, beginning in August, 2007.

One big difference when comparing these two eras is that the neg-am teaser rate in 2007 is today’s 30-year fixed rate.  When the teaser rate went away, and people had to qualify again, the market collapsed.

It doesn’t look that way today.

This year, sales have been strong, in spite of the San Diego Case-Shiller Index rising 42% since January, 2012.  If we hit an unsustainable stretch, the first indicator will be sales dropping off, like they did at the end of 2007.

Posted by on Aug 22, 2015 in Bubble-Era Pricing, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 4 comments