It looks like we’ve found the number.
Because the inventory was so low last year, I thought the market could easily handle a 10% to 20% increase in active listings this year.
But now the number of actives is +30% YoY, and the pendings aren’t increasing in a similar fashion. If sales don’t pick up, it means a glut of unsold listings could be forming over the next 1-2 months.
Will buyers care?
Probably not, because they have shrugged off worse (higher prices and rates). But once a listing goes unsold for 2-3 weeks, it will take something drastic to get the buyers’ attention again.
The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
15 |
$724/sf |
49 |
23 |
Jan 8 |
13 |
$645/sf |
58 |
19 |
Jan 15 |
10 |
$664/sf |
55 |
15 |
Jan 22 |
15 |
$750/sf |
36 |
15 |
Jan 29 |
12 |
$834/sf |
36 |
21 |
Feb 5 |
12 |
$784/sf |
38 |
23 |
Feb 12 |
10 |
$818/sf |
30 |
22 |
Feb 19 |
12 |
$731/sf |
17 |
21 |
Feb 26 |
7 |
$725/sf |
26 |
21 |
Mar 4 |
9 |
$763/sf |
23 |
21 |
Mar 11 |
15 |
$742/sf |
14 |
17 |
Mar 18 |
15 |
$697/sf |
16 |
21 |
Mar 25 |
13 |
$846/sf |
19 |
22 |
Apr 1 |
12 |
$897/sf |
22 |
20 |
Apr 8 |
15 |
$869/sf |
37 |
22 |
Apr 15 |
17 |
$811/sf |
16 |
25 |
The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
20 |
$866/sf |
66 |
28 |
Jan 8 |
23 |
$890/sf |
63 |
23 |
Jan 15 |
32 |
$876/sf |
47 |
35 |
Jan 22 |
35 |
$823/sf |
43 |
25 |
Jan 29 |
38 |
$833/sf |
43 |
26 |
Feb 5 |
39 |
$810/sf |
34 |
28 |
Feb 12 |
32 |
$781/sf |
39 |
34 |
Feb 19 |
33 |
$797/sf |
36 |
29 |
Feb 26 |
33 |
$840/sf |
36 |
31 |
Mar 4 |
39 |
$827/sf |
32 |
31 |
Mar 11 |
30 |
$857/sf |
43 |
37 |
Mar 18 |
34 |
$847/sf |
36 |
37 |
Mar 25 |
34 |
$848/sf |
43 |
43 |
Apr 1 |
23 |
$873/sf |
42 |
47 |
Apr 8 |
30 |
$884/sf |
37 |
47 |
Apr 15 |
32 |
$961/sf |
36 |
43 |
The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
54 |
$1,046/sf |
65 |
34 |
Jan 8 |
59 |
$1,034/sf |
57 |
30 |
Jan 15 |
69 |
$1,094/sf |
44 |
35 |
Jan 22 |
60 |
$1,108/sf |
42 |
45 |
Jan 29 |
65 |
$1,126/sf |
41 |
48 |
Feb 5 |
68 |
$1,120/sf |
31 |
50 |
Feb 12 |
60 |
$1,123/sf |
34 |
56 |
Feb 19 |
71 |
$1,130/sf |
29 |
56 |
Feb 26 |
64 |
$1,138/sf |
30 |
61 |
Mar 4 |
62 |
$1,202/sf |
33 |
55 |
Mar 11 |
61 |
$1,211/sf |
29 |
62 |
Mar 18 |
72 |
$1,143/sf |
32 |
53 |
Mar 25 |
70 |
$1,101/sf |
31 |
64 |
Apr 1 |
71 |
$1,049/sf |
31 |
63 |
Apr 8 |
68 |
$1,076/sf |
31 |
63 |
Apr 15 |
82 |
$1,058/sf |
33 |
55 |
The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
33 |
$1,216/sf |
92 |
15 |
Jan 8 |
37 |
$1,248/sf |
83 |
15 |
Jan 15 |
42 |
$1,236/sf |
77 |
18 |
Jan 22 |
43 |
$1,283/sf |
77 |
17 |
Jan 29 |
42 |
$1,242/sf |
75 |
20 |
Feb 5 |
36 |
$1,363/sf |
73 |
25 |
Feb 12 |
40 |
$1,252/sf |
34 |
18 |
Feb 19 |
47 |
$1,515/sf |
45 |
17 |
Feb 26 |
50 |
$1,512/sf |
42 |
16 |
Mar 4 |
50 |
$1,588/sf |
44 |
19 |
Mar 11 |
50 |
$1,594/sf |
44 |
23 |
Mar 18 |
60 |
$1,537/sf |
38 |
22 |
Mar 25 |
59 |
$1,614/sf |
70 |
27 |
Apr 1 |
62 |
$1,660/sf |
76 |
26 |
Apr 8 |
65 |
$1,479/sf |
76 |
27 |
Apr 15 |
72 |
$1,442/sf |
70 |
26 |
The $4,000,000+ Market:
Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
Avg. DOM |
# of Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
139 |
$1,858/sf |
116 |
20 |
Jan 8 |
151 |
$1,896/sf |
109 |
18 |
Jan 15 |
157 |
$1,879/sf |
106 |
22 |
Jan 22 |
159 |
$1,824/sf |
104 |
27 |
Jan 29 |
162 |
$1,758/sf |
108 |
31 |
Feb 5 |
162 |
$1,718/sf |
108 |
30 |
Feb 12 |
154 |
$1,705/sf |
107 |
34 |
Feb 19 |
168 |
$1,685/sf |
107 |
24 |
Feb 26 |
175 |
$1,691/sf |
105 |
26 |
Mar 4 |
166 |
$1,692/sf |
97 |
36 |
Mar 11 |
178 |
$1,663/sf |
90 |
37 |
Mar 18 |
179 |
$1,691/sf |
90 |
29 |
Mar 25 |
177 |
$1,693/sf |
83 |
34 |
Apr 1 |
176 |
$1,713/sf |
87 |
31 |
Apr 8 |
177 |
$1,771/sf |
82 |
37 |
Apr 15 |
179 |
$1,731/sf |
88 |
40 |
NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings
Week |
New Listings |
New Pendings |
Total Actives |
Total Pendings |
Jan 2, 2024 |
18 |
10 |
255 |
113 |
Jan 8 |
43 |
12 |
278 |
100 |
Jan 15 |
52 |
20 |
305 |
102 |
Jan 22 |
50 |
29 |
308 |
122 |
Jan 29 |
44 |
32 |
314 |
140 |
Feb 5 |
44 |
33 |
312 |
149 |
Feb 12 |
37 |
34 |
292 |
159 |
Feb 19 |
53 |
24 |
326 |
143 |
Feb 26 |
45 |
37 |
324 |
151 |
Mar 4 |
52 |
45 |
332 |
166 |
Mar 11 |
53 |
26 |
331 |
165 |
Mar 18 |
62 |
32 |
355 |
159 |
Mar 25 |
45 |
46 |
348 |
186 |
Apr 1 |
37 |
42 |
340 |
183 |
Apr 8 |
58 |
36 |
352 |
191 |
Apr 15 |
58 |
29 |
378 |
184 |
NSDCC List Price Quartiles
Week |
1st Quartile |
Median List Price |
3rd Quartile |
Jan 2, 2024 |
$2,549,888 |
$4,444,000 |
$8,350,000 |
Jan 8 |
$2,572,444 |
$4,447,000 |
$8,097,500 |
Jan 15 |
$2,499,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$7,950,000 |
Jan 22 |
$2,429,000 |
$4,250,000 |
$7,450,000 |
Jan 29 |
$2,399,000 |
$4,225,000 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 5 |
$2,398,000 |
$4,272,500 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 12 |
$2,499,800 |
$4,297,500 |
$7,495,000 |
Feb 19 |
$2,499,400 |
$4,200,000 |
$6,972,500 |
Feb 26 |
$2,649,400 |
$4,350,000 |
$7,300,000 |
Mar 4 |
$2,525,000 |
$4,225,000 |
$7,149,500 |
Mar 11 |
$2,649,000 |
$4,295,000 |
$7,495,000 |
Mar 18 |
$2,500,000 |
$4,000,000 |
$6,750,000 |
Mar 25 |
$2,680,000 |
$4,097,499 |
$6,750,000 |
Apr 1 |
$2,785,000 |
$4,150,000 |
$6,999,999 |
Apr 8 |
$2,680,000 |
$4,047,500 |
$6,999,000 |
Apr 15 |
$2,570,000 |
$3,899,500 |
$6,797,500 |
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
Will the Iran war affect sales volume or closing times , etc
No. People in North County only care about the price of Electric Vehicles, Global Warming, DEI, hating conservatives, Pickleball lessons and themselves.