One-Story Country Living!

Take a drive to the country and see our new listing in Vista!

685 Barsby St., Vista

3 br/2 ba, 1,891sf

YB: 1960

0.51-acre lot

LP = $899,000

SP = $926,000 – we represented the sellers

Check out this country charmer with newer kitchen and bathrooms on a spacious 1/2 acre lot with vineyard! The huge eat-in kitchen – with granite counters, walk-in pantry, and sleek two-tone cabinetry – is the center of the home, with spacious living and family rooms that all expand outside to create the ultimate indoor/outdoor experience! Hardwoods, dual-pane vinyl windows & sliders, solar, travertine, herb garden plus orange and avocado trees too! This is a hot buy!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/685-Barsby-St-Vista-CA-92084/16628107_zpid/

Lower Commissions – The Truth

Oh, you’re going to get lower commissions alright – on the backs of the buyer-agents.

The last time I checked a couple of months ago, there were 30% of the monthly closed sales that offered a buyer-agent commisssion under 2.5 percent. Of the 92 closings so far this month, 25% of them were under 2.5% – and those were determined before the NAR debacle.

The listing agent determines how much the buyer-agent gets paid.

Not the seller, not NAR, not the attorneys – it is the listing agent who decides the commission rate to offer the buyer-agents. It makes for an easy solution. Want a lower overall commission rate? Just take it off the amount paid to the buyer-agent. What’s worse is the MLS rule that buyer-agents are not allowed to negotiate the rate – hopefully that will go away now.

Listing agents aren’t lowering their commission rate – they are taking the same or more than ever, and paying less to the buyer-agents. They are under-appreciating the amount of work it takes to conclude a successful buyer-side transaction (usually 3-6 months of frustration and losing).

If the listing agent has superior skills that result in a higher sales price and a smooth transaction, then no one will mind them getting paid accordingly, but their success is also at least partially due to the buyer-agent doing his job well. The good buyer-agents shouldn’t be penalized, and ideally, there would be a sliding scale based on performance.

But because everyone will be hearing that commissions are negotiable (for the first time, says Biden), the listing agents who feel the need to agree to a lower rate with their sellers will just subtract the same discount from the buyer-agent side. But is that in the best interest of the seller?

This practice will expedite the demise of the buyer-agent.

Buyer-Broker Agreement – The Problem

Every realtor-related entity is scrambling right now to train agents how to get their buyers to agree to a contractual relationship where the buyer pays the buyer-agent commission.

It would all be well and good – and be similar to the listing agreement we have with sellers – if it weren’t for the paragraph in red above that allows for cancellation by either party. Even if the parties agree to Exclusive Representation, the buyer can still cancel with a 30-day notice (in C1ii). Both boxes on the left need to be checked to eliminate the option to cancel.

The big problem is that listing agents will be advertising to buyers to come direct to them to buy their listing and not pay ANY commission.

Will agents be able to convince buyers to sign the Exclusive Representation with no cancellation? Or will it be a happy compromise just to agree to representation that they can cancel at any time. Yes, the happy compromise will be preferred, mostly because it is so clearly laid out on the form.

But it means that the minute the buyers see a hot new listing advertised as No-Fee-If-You-Come-to-Me, they will cancel their existing buyer-broker agreement and go direct to the listing agent.

Buyer frustration builds quickly even if you have a great buyer-agent because the good deals or cool houses are competitive and almost all picky buyers will lose a few bidding wars before they win one. Buyers don’t like losing houses they had their heart set on winning, and the temptation to go direct to the listing agent – especially when you can save the fee – will be very high.

I’m guessing this will all blow over in a few months because listing agents will be advertising to buyers directly – leading with the No-Fee-If-You-Come-to-Me mantra – and it will expedite the industry’s transition to single agency, and eliminate buyer-agents altogether.

Tiny Fest 2024

I keep hoping there will be a cool, high-quality tiny house at any price – even the ones over $200,000 here weren’t that spectacular (including the 3D-printed house made of recycled plastic bottles (65%) and fiberglass (35%) that cost $220/sf):

After the Realtor Settlement

From the WaPo

The reporting on the NAR settlement seems to be focused on creating hysteria, rather than finding the truth. Realtors commissions have always been a juicy topic, and the media is intent on using this opportunity to fabricate wild and salacious stories to attract the maximum number of eyeballs.

The hysteria may just be beginning, however. The NAR settlement included penalties for every brokerage that sells more than $2 billion in volume per year. For Compass, the top brokerage in the country for total volume, it means imposing a fine of $500 million without consulting with Compass management, let alone negotiating. The NAR doesn’t have the authority to speak for us, or commit us to any penalty so who knows what they were thinking but it guarantees the end of NAR – why would any brokerage want to be associated with such bums?

Those fines will get litigated and drawn out for years. The requirement to remove the commission rate in the MLS will start in July, but listing agents can advertise the amount of buyer-agent commission everywhere else. We will hear more about the buyer-agent commission than ever before – and steering done by both buyer-agents and buyers themselves. Buyers will prefer the listings that pay more commission, so they pay less. So much for fixing the concerns about steering!

As realtor-panic goes, the beginning of Covid was much worse – we didn’t think we’d sell a house for months! Those who panic about this hiccup are the realtors who don’t have much to offer – those who aren’t real salespeople. Nobody will mind seeing them either get better, or get out of the business.

But houses will keep selling at a brisk pace regardless of commissions.

This will blow over in a few months.

My previous post mentioned the need for getting good help. Getting cheap help will probably be tempting until people get a feel for the difficulty of what it’s like:

  • We made a clean, full-price offer. Three days later, still no answer.
  • We made an offer on a Friday that was $50,000 under list on a 2-br house in original condition. The sellers decided to take their chances with open houses (in search of two in the bush) over the weekend, instead of responding. We attend, and the listing agent isn’t doing the open house; there is a trainee there instead. We look harder to find something better, and succeed. By Monday, the listing agent wants to re-engage, and by Wednesday she begs me to get back in the game. They receive another offer, but it’s $100,000 under list. We moved on.
  • I’ve had several solid buyers attend open houses in the last year – people I’ve talked to who sure gave me the feeling that they liked the home so much that they were going to make an offer. But then when I follow up with their agents – who usually don’t accompany – they can’t close the deal. It makes me want to sell my listing to their buyer and just send them a check in the mail.
  • Multiple offers – what do you do? I lost another one where we offered the exact same price ($100,000 over list), and the listing agent seller picked the one with the bigger down payment, instead of letting the buyers decide it. Don’t you think there might be some gas left in the tank? Like $25,000 to $50,000?
  • You get an offer while off-market. Then what?
  • When does a seller lower their price? Or not?
  • Buyers and sellers typically have little experience in fixing things – especially the big stuff – and agents aren’t much better. So instead, a proper discount is attempted, but sellers always think in pennies, and buyers think in thousands. With little or no buyer representation, how are those going to get handled? They’re not, and more deals will die. This is a problem on virtually every sale.
  • Inexperienced people tend to over-react, and any bump in the road could be a deal-killer.
  • How much should buyers offer? Most agents respond with, “Well, that’s up to you”.
  • What is the real value of the property? Once a home is on the open market, Zillow and Redfin adjust their estimates to within a buck or two of the list price, so sellers, buyers, and agents must each determine the value themselves. How good are they at determining the value? How much variance is acceptable? Virtually nobody knows, and unless there is a good agent involved, more deals that are 1% to 2% apart will die an unnecessary death.

How do you know when you’re talking to the wrong agent?

Their only line is “Let me know if you have any questions”.

Good salespeople ask the questions, and then offer opinions and advice!

The commission lawsuits are the best thing to ever happen for my slogan! Get Good Help!

What’s Really Needed

Everyone seems to have a take on the commission lawsuits. This is one of the best:

A way to implement an instant solution within the existing framework is to require that realtors possess a broker’s license, which takes a minimum of two years experience (or a four-year degree with a major/minor in real estate), plus passing EIGHT college-level courses.

Getting a salesperson license only requires a passing score of 70% on a 150-question multiple-choice test after talking a couple of classes. Once licensed, the office trainings are thin and too basic in nature, which unfortunately forces new agents to learn the trade on the backs of their first 100 clients or so.

The commission lawsuits may expedite the retirements of a million realtors, but they aren’t going to solve the problem – convincing the public that they should Get Good Help! Instead, the lawsuits will just keep everyone talking about the same old thing, with no advancement of what’s really best for the consumer.

Ryan tries to make the same point here, and look how fast it deteriorates:

High-End L.A. Squatters

Hat tip to Bode for sending this in – squatter story on steroids near LeBron’s house:

Read the full artcile here:

https://www.curbed.com/article/squatters-rights-california-beverly-hills-los-angeles.html

Plus this, also sent by Bode:

On a winter morning in Woodland Hills, the “Squatter Hunter” slowly approaches a posh two-story home dressed in all black, armed with a Glock 26 pistol, stun gun, pepper spray and baton. His body camera is on. His two-man squad lurks behind him.

They’ve spent four days in surveillance, learning the habits of the man squatting inside. They’ve waited for him to leave, but he never does. So they knock on the front door, and when the occupant opens it, they barge inside.

Their plan: live with the squatter. Dirty the bathroom. Take the best spot on the couch. Commandeer the TV remote. Blast music. Drink his coffee. Eat his Cheetos.

Out-squat him. And film it all for YouTube.

As the body camera footage shows, the team starts installing Ring cameras throughout the home to document every interaction. The Squatter Hunter, Flash Shelton, hands the man a lease with Shelton’s name on it.

“You’re an intruder in my house now,” he says.

Shelton explains that the man is there illegally, and the team is not going anywhere until he leaves. The squatter was out before they could even share breakfast together.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-03-12/out-squatted-handyman-flash-shelton-will-squat-with-you-squatters-until-they-leave

Inventory Watch

The active inventory is increasing!

We’ve been hoping to identify the perfect amount of additional homes for sale that would create more sales without scaring buyers back to the sidelines with shock and awe. I have guessed that the demand would digest a 10% to 15% increase, and maybe 20% without much difficulty. Now the number of active listings are 34% above last year, and the pendings have been flat for the last couple of weeks.

Likely outcomes:

  • Buyers wait longer, hoping it will be better/different later.
  • Sales slow.
  • The prime selling season ends sooner than expected.

Thankfully, the sellers aren’t going to give them away so it will feel like a standoff. Only the buyers and sellers with high motivations will dare to transact when the temptation to wait longer is getting stronger.

If it gets better/different later, it won’t be by much. There might be fewer homes selling over list, and more deals for the buyers who can dig them out.

But that’s it.

(more…)

The 10 Best Affordable Places to Retire

A potential retirement spot’s cost of living is often an important consideration for retirees living on a fixed income. While the cost of housing is factored into the overall Best Places to Retire ranking, U.S. News breaks out especially affordable places to retire into its own ranking, including housing affordability and price parity, the ability to afford everyday goods and services.

The 10 Best Affordable Places to Retire in the U.S. in 2024:

  1. Youngstown, Ohio.
  2. Hickory, North Carolina.
  3. Springfield, Missouri.
  4. Brownsville, Texas.
  5. Huntington, West Virginia & Ashland, Kentucky-Ohio.
  6. Fort Wayne, Indiana.
  7. Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
  8. Mobile, Alabama.
  9. Toledo, Ohio.
  10. South Bend, Indiana.

NAR Buckles

What a headline! Nowhere in this article does it say that NAR is slashing commissions or that any agents – the people who determine the commissions – have agreed to slash the commissions. The weak, spineless agents who have nothing else to offer will gladly agree to work for less because to them, it beats not working – but consumers suffer when they hire a weak agent.

Nothing will change until consumers realize that the key is to GET GOOD HELP!

There will be only one result from these commission lawsuits. The buyer-agent will be eliminated in the name of ‘saving money’, and home buyers will be forever harmed by not getting any, let alone adequate, representation.

The full NYT article without paywall is HERE.

Nobody from the industry is quoted in the article, and they published the most outrageous quotes they could find.

Excerpts:

Housing experts said the deal, and the expected savings for homeowners, could trigger one of the most significant jolts in the U.S. housing market in 100 years. “This will blow up the market and would force a new business model,” said Norm Miller, a professor emeritus of real estate at the University of San Diego.

The lawsuits argued that N.A.R., and brokerages who required their agents to be members of N.A.R., had violated antitrust laws by mandating that the seller’s agent make an offer of payment to the buyer’s agent, and setting rules that led to an industrywide standard commission. Without that rate essentially guaranteed, agents will now most likely have to lower their commissions as they compete for business.

Economists estimate that commissions could now be reduced by 30 percent, driving down home prices across the board. The opening of a free market for Realtor compensation could mirror the shake-up that occurred in the travel industry with the emergence of online broker sites such as Expedia and Kayak.

“The forces of competition will be let loose,” said Benjamin Brown, co-chairman of the antitrust practice at Cohen Milstein and one of the lawyers who hammered out the settlement. “You’ll see some new pricing models, and some new and creative ways to provide services to home buyers. It’ll be a really exciting time for the industry.”

Under the settlement, tens of millions of home sellers will likely be eligible to receive a small piece of a consolidated class-action payout.

The legal loss struck a blow to the power wielded by the organization, which has long been considered untouchable, insulated by its influence. Founded in 1908, N.A.R. has more than $1 billion in assets, 1.3 million members and a political action committee that pours millions into the coffers of candidates across the political spectrum.

The antitrust division of the Department of Justice is continuing its investigation of N.A.R.’s practices, including the organization’s oversight of databases for home listings, called multiple listing sites or the M.L.S. The sites are owned and operated by N.A.R.’s local affiliates. For decades, the Justice Department has questioned whether these databases stifle competition and whether some N.A.R. rules foster price-fixing on commissions.

Some experts said the shift on commission structure, and the billions of dollars that would flow into the housing market as a result, could spark a recovery in the housing market, going so far as to say that it could be as significant as the 1930s New Deal, a flurry of legislation and executive orders signed by President Franklin D. Roosevelt designed to stabilize and rebuild the nation’s economic recovery following the Great Depression.

“This will be a really fundamental shift in how Americans buy, search for, and purchase and sell their housing. It will absolutely transform the real estate industry,” said Max Besbris, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the author of “Upsold,” a book exploring the link between housing prices and the real estate business. “It will prompt one of the biggest transformations to the housing market since New Deal-era regulations were put in place.”

Despite N.A.R.’s turbulence over the last several months, however, there was one constant: their insistence that the lawsuits were flawed and they intended to appeal. With Friday’s settlement agreement, N.A.R. gave up the fight.

The settlement includes many significant rule changes. It bans N.A.R. from establishing any sort of rules that would allow a seller’s agent to set compensation for a buyer’s agent, a practice that critics say has long led to “steering,” in which buyers’ agents direct their clients to pricier homes in a bid to collect a bigger commission check.

And on the online databases used to buy and sell homes, the M.L.S., the settlement requires that any fields displaying broker compensation be eliminated entirely. It also places a blanket ban on the longtime requirement that agents subscribe to multiple listing services in the first place in order to offer or accept compensation for their work.

“The reset button on the sale of homes was hit today,” said Michael Ketchmark, the Kansas City lawyer who represented the home sellers in the main lawsuit. “Anyone who owns a home or dreams of owning one will benefit tremendously from this settlement.”

From the NAR President:

NAR has agreed to put in place a new rule prohibiting offers of compensation on the MLS. Offers of compensation could continue to be an option consumers can pursue off-MLS through negotiation and consultation with real estate professionals. And sellers can offer buyer concessions on an MLS (for example—concessions for buyer closing costs). This change will go into effect in mid-July 2024.

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