Zillow Local Forecasts

Last month their annual appreciation guesses were in the 3% to 4% range, now they are up to 4.9% to 6.3% for the next 12 months!

We’ll probably exceed those in the first quarter of 2024!

Carlsbad NW – 92008

Carlsbad SE – 92009

Carlsbad NE – 92010

Carlsbad SW – 92011

Carmel Valley – 92130

Del Mar – 92014

Encinitas – 92024

Rancho Santa Fe – 92067

Waiting For The Man

“I’m Waiting for the Man” is a song by American rock band the Velvet Underground. Written by Lou Reed, it was first released on their 1967 debut album, The Velvet Underground & Nico. The lyrics describe a man’s efforts to obtain heroin in Harlem.

In various reviews, it is described as “tough garage rock”, “proto-punk classic”, and “one of the all-time classic rock songs”, with renditions by a number of artists.

In 2004 Rolling Stone magazine ranked the song at number 159 on its list of the 500 Greatest Songs of All Time. It was moved to number 161 in 2010, and finally re-ranked at number 81 in 2021.

The magazine noted:

The Velvets mixed R&B rhythm-guitar workout, blues-piano stomp and dreamy art drone, as Reed deadpans a story about scoring $26 worth of heroin in Harlem. “Everything about that song holds true,” said Reed, “except the price.”

In December 1966, David Bowie’s manager, Kenneth Pitt, acquired an acetate of the then-unreleased The Velvet Underground & Nico and presented it to Bowie. Upon hearing “I’m Waiting for the Man”, he went to his band at the time, the Buzz, and told them they were going to learn it: “We learned ‘Waiting for the Man’ right then and there and we were playing it on stage within a week.” He later recalled in an 2003 interview with Vanity Fair: “Amusingly, not only was I to cover a Velvets song before anyone else in the world, I actually did it before the album came out. Now that’s the essence of Mod.”

Bowie first attempted to record “I’m Waiting for the Man” in the studio during the sessions for his 1967 debut album, and later properly recorded it with another band, the Riot Squad, on April 5, 1967. In his book Rebel Rebel, Chris O’Leary notes the subpar quality of the recording, writing that it “sounded as if they were making do with what they’d found in a school music room.” This version later appeared on the Riot Squad compilations The Last Chapter: Mods & Sods (2012) and The Toy Soldier EP. In this version, Bowie misinterpreted the song’s subject matter, containing the line “I’m just looking for a good friendly behind” instead of “I’m just looking for a dear, dear friend of mine”. Tony Visconti later told biographer Nicholas Pegg: “A very young David Bowie didn’t yet know that ‘the man’ in Harlem parlance meant the drug dealer. So he naturally assumed it was a gay encounter involving money.”

Bowie performed “I’m Waiting for the Man”, often titled as “Waiting for the Man”, for BBC radio shows in 1972 (one recording appearing on 2000’s Bowie at the Beeb) and frequently on the Ziggy Stardust Tour (one recording appearing on 1994’s Santa Monica ’72). He would further perform it on the 1976 Isolar Tour and the 1990 Sound+Vision Tour. While his 1967 recording followed Reed’s original chord structure, Bowie made subtle changes to his live performances. He performed the song with Reed at his 50th birthday bash in 1997. David Buckley writes that Bowie’s 1977 song “‘Heroes'” was influenced by Reed’s writing.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_Waiting_for_the_Man

Off-Market Sale

I thought it would never happen.

I sold a listing off-market.

There wasn’t much hope that we could sell 1704 Azul Vista for $2,000,000+.

There had been only one sale over $2 million ever, and it was an off-market sale in May, 2022 – the absolute peak of the frenzy. The five sales since then had struggled too, with most taking weeks to sell and various discounts needed – in blue below:

The last sale of the 3,372sf plan was in August, 2022 for $1,669,000.

My sellers and I agreed that the $2,200,000 sale was an outlier, and with the subsequent sales ranging from $1,600,000 to $1,760,000, we would be satisfied with $1,900,000, so we listed for that amount:

Donna correctly pointed out that our clients had not done much since we sold them the home in 2017, and even though it was the former model, it’s now a 20-year old former model. We agreed to embark on a thorough kitchen remodel to dazzle the buyers and ensure we could get the $1.9 million. Thankfully, it would take 6-7 weeks to complete the work, and we planned to hit the open market in February.

Then Tanya came along with her new listing.

She inputs 1021 Camino del Arroyo as a Coming Soon listing, priced at $2,350,000 because it had a $500,000 down-to-the-studs remodel – so they figured they deserved to use the $2.2 comp. Here’s the best part – someone who was crazy about this floor plan and neighborhood made a full-price cash offer, sight unseen!

I’ve been friends with Tanya for years, so I called her to get the scoop. She also tells me that Paul had called and he has a new listing of the same floor plan coming up too. I’ve known Paul for a long time, and once we all start talking, we realize that each of us would have a listing of the same 3,372sf model hit the market in three consecutive weeks!

The $2.35 listing set off a buzz in the neighborhood, and when the moving trucks rolled up to my listing, the word really got out. Paul’s listing looked at power lines and water tanks, so he kept his price at $1,895,000 – and got $1,960,000. But an agent whose buyer didn’t like Paul’s listing called me.

We did a kitchen remodel and had the ocean view. But there was still plenty of the 2005 model-home look, and it’s known that ocean views from San Marcos are intermittent at best.

I tell the agent that our price is going to be $2,200,000, and she sends over a $2,175,000 cash offer!

The $2,350,000 was such a lucky sale that we resisted the urge to think we would get that much or more if we went on the open market – there wasn’t any other solid evidence.  This isn’t Carlsbad, and it’s not even San Elijo Hills – it’s Lake San Marcos!

We took the deal.

I did input it onto the MLS after the buyer released all contingencies, and let it sit for almost 24 hours to see if there was any other interest.

I didn’t get a call.

We agreed that we did the right thing!

Over List, February

The Over-List buys jumped up to 30% in February as the selling season got an early start in 2024.

The 156 sales in February is the real proof, and the pricing is the highest since the peak in early 2022:

The market is already in full-tilt boogie mode!

Property Auction – Pro Style

I mention how tough it is to find anyone who has a bidding-war strategy, but it’s because our expectations rose dramatically in 2010 after witnessing one of the best of all-time.

They were auctioning off a vacant lot owned by the City of Del Mar.

This video starts at the beginning of the auction, and the bidder at the bottom of the screen was a proxy for Carson Palmer – who eventually got the last laugh when he built a 6,580sf house on this lot and then sold it for $18,000,000 in 2020.

The auction starts at $1,000,000 – but watch how fast it climbs, particularly from $3,000,000 to $4,000,000. Did he have to pay that much? How about the guys in suits running around, the cameraman, and the auctioneer’s chant all contributing to the excitement. It was over before anyone could think!

Carson also paid a 10% buyer’s premium on top, so his final purchase price was $4,400,000:

The Buy of a Life Time!

Local Brokerages, Sales & Volume

The general market conditions have appeared relatively healthy over the last few years, but the above demonstrate why brokerages – especially those operating on thin margins – have been feeling the pain.

Volume has dropped considerably between 2021 and 2023:

Top Five Brokerages

The 2-year stats for the whole county were even worse. Sales were down 44%, and volume was off 36%. Even the 2019 county stats were better than in 2023. Sales last year were 37% lower than in 2019, and volume was 3% lower.

Inventory Watch

There have been 12% more listings YoY in the first two months of 2024, and buyers are responding!

Closed SFR sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad are +20% YoY in the first two months of the year!

It’s why the number of active listings (red line above) isn’t exploding, AND there have been 88 new pendings in the last two weeks – which is about twice the pace we had in January. The median LP of those 88 pendings is $2.5 million, which means pricing will be at least +10% higher than last year. Wow!

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