List-Price Accuracy Gauge

Once a home is for sale but not selling, how do you know what to do?

Both buyers and sellers can apply my List-Price Accuracy Gauge:

Once the home is on the open market, if it is……

  • Getting visitors and offers, you are within 5% of being right on price.
  • Getting visitors but no offers, you are 5% to 10% wrong on price.
  • Not getting visitors, then you are more than 10% wrong on price.

It’s nothing personal, it’s just a simple guide to know how close the price is to being right.

The serious buyers rush out the first week to take a look, but after that it’s crickets, with only an occasional visitor. It is tough for sellers to cope, or make adjustments. But once the initial urgency has expired, you have to do something – don’t just sit there.

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How quickly should sellers make adjustments? The DOM clock is ticking!

0-14 days on market – Hot property, and when the sellers have their maximum negotiating power.

15-30 days on market – Buyers get suspicious, want to pay under list.

30+ days on market – Buyers will be expecting deep discounts, or ignore it altogether.

After being unsold for two weeks, sellers will suspect that something is wrong. But it is natural to resist changing the price and instead blame everything else – especially the listing agent.

Sellers, and agents, need to shake that off and act quickly to keep the urgency higher. The first price reduction should be for at least 5% and happen in the first 15-30 days for maximum effectiveness. If the home doesn’t sell in the next two weeks, then another 5% is in order, and by then the fluff is eliminated.

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Where do sellers go wrong?  They don’t properly price in the negatives.

Typically sellers just pick apart the comps to convince themselves why their home is the best around, and then settle on a list price that will show everyone who’s the boss.  If you don’t have any negatives, then you probably will get your price!  But typically sellers are forced to come to grips with the negatives of their house, and adjust accordingly.

Do sellers have to lower their price? No, not neccesarily.

There are other alternatives:

1.  Make your house easier to show.  Listing agents who insist on buyers jumping several hurdles just to see the home aren’t realistic about today’s market conditions. Make the home easy to see!

2.  Fix the problems.  New carpet and paint is the best thing you can do: 1) it looks clean, 2) it smells new, 3) you have to clean out your house to install it, and 4) you are managing a business transaction now – it is the logical solution.  Utilize staging too.

3.  Improve the Internet presence. Have at least a 12-25 hi-res photos and a simple youtube tour.

4.  Wait for the market to catch up.  If unsold for 60+ days, cancel and try again later – probably next year.

5. Reset the Days-on-Market stat.  As long as the MLS allows agents to refresh their listings, then it’s in the best interest of the seller to reset the DOM.  It is a gimmick, and instead sellers should concentrate on creating real value for buyers – that’s what will cause them to pay more.

The longer it takes to sell, the more discount the buyers will be expecting – usually about a 1% off for each week on the market.  When other homes are flying off the market, the buyers’ obvious conclusion is that your price is wrong, and they load up the lowball offers.

Even if you complete one or all of the five ideas above, don’t be surprised if you need to lower the price too. Keep it attractive!

Has Anyone Ever Written Anything for You

Between 1971 and 1978, Joe Walsh was married to Stefany Rhodes. The couple had a daughter named Emma, born in the first year of their marriage. When Emma was just three years old, Rhodes had a car accident which caused Emma to suffer from fatal head injuries. She was pulled out of the life support unit the same night, and her organs were donated. After this tragic incident, Walsh suffered from severe trauma, and the couple decided to break up.

To cope with Emma’s loss, Walsh began to use drugs and alcohol, and he wrote a song as a tribute to his daughter titled ‘Song For Emma.’ He also built a memorial fountain to Emma’s name in North Boulder Park, where Rhodes was taking Emma to at the time of the tragic car accident. Later on, when his relationship with Nicks began, Walsh shared this incident with Stevie. She was deeply affected, and went on to write ‘Has Anyone Ever Written Anything for You’ for Walsh, who is a former resident of Olivenhain!

NSDCC February Sales, Prelim

This month’s housing stats will benefit from an extra business day due to the leap year, but it will just be icing on the cake. The sales this month have already blown by last February, in spite of higher pricing.

I think we can say that we’re back to frenzy-like conditions:

Some agents insist on inputting their listings of attached homes in the SFR category. There has only been ONE house sale under $1,000,000 in the last three Februarys.

This month’s total will probably be around 160-170 sales, which is phenomenal when you consider that we had similar monthly sales counts when pricing was half of what it is today! Not only that, but the number of sales will be close to the total number of listings too – probably closer than during the peak frenzy years.

With declining sales across the country, there are complaints about how bad the market has been, and people are wondering when it will get ‘better’. Better? This is great, relatively, and this is what we’re going to have for the next few years because the boomers are still relatively young (half are still working).

It will take a surge of new listings, and/or a drop in demand, which you’d think would happen naturally as prices go higher. But not yet.

How’s the flow of new listings?

After a hot January that was +18% YoY, the February listings have cooled off – though there will be late-reporters that should get this year’s count up to 220-ish:

NSDCC Monthly Listings

Two months into the new year, I think we have found our groove. The inventory will stay low, and the special homes will keep blowing off the market – with the rest having to find their way.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec

After mortgage rates went up in 2022, the local Case-Shiller Index was jarred with a 12.1% drop over the subsequent eight months. The end of 2023 held up much better, logging only a slight decline of -1.4% in the last three months of the year:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month.

San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.

“U.S. home prices faced significant headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued its streak of seven consecutive record highs in 2023.”

“2023 U.S. housing gains haven’t followed such a synchronous pattern since the COVID housing boom. The term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the U.S. housing sector. All 20 markets reported yearly gains for the first time this year, with four markets rising over 8%. Portland eked out a positive annual gain after 11 months of declines. Regionally, the Midwest and Northeast both experienced the greatest annual appreciation with 6.7%.”

Los Altos Full Tour

This video includes a tour of the house so you can see what $4,200,000 gets you in Silicon Valley. The eight pine trees are protected, and thankfully, they are isolated into two extreme areas:

What does that money buy around here? Examples:

https://www.compass.com/listing/7949-sitio-redonda-carlsbad-ca-92009/1517092298670492217/

https://www.compass.com/listing/237-la-mesa-avenue-encinitas-ca-92024/1491117530189624585/

https://www.compass.com/listing/3325-jasmine-crest-encinitas-ca-92024/1479802900127867913/

https://www.compass.com/listing/2286-oxford-avenue-cardiff-by-the-sea-ca-92007/1420369672828843897/

Inventory Watch

This year’s inventory is looking a lot like last year, with a few more listings hanging around unsold.

NSDCC Total Number of Listings, Jan 1 through Feb 20

2023: 355

2024: 395

How’s the pricing? Here are the weekly quartiles for 2023 and 2024:

It looks like the market is settling in for a ride that’s similar to the one we had in 2023!

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Uncle’s House Part 2

Once we raised the list price yesterday, the message spread quickly. I still had a good turnout at my open house – about half of the amount of attendees that I had on Friday – but many came just to ask why the price changed.

Agents appreciated the transparency though, and they were quick to realize the benefits. If your buyer is only interested in paying $3-something, there is no need to go through the process of making an offer and getting your hopes up if there’s no chance of being in contention.

It’s part of the slow-motion auction. Give everyone a shot to buy the home and have full transparency propel the outcome.

Uncle’s House

I don’t make it a habit to drive around the state looking for sales – my uncle lived here for 47 years and survived the last couple of years by himself. Every 90-year old needs to have people around!

He moved to a senior facility in Marin County to be closer to my mom and sister, plus have many other seniors around for engagement. Today, he’s entered into the big Saturday Putting Contest, and tomorrow he’s going with a group to the symphony!

Watch my video to the end for the cliffhanger:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/45-springer-road-los-altos-ca-94024/1517137072886523177

Hiring a Buyer-Agent

The commission lawsuits and action by the DOJ will cause buyers to wonder if they need to pay for representation, and what do they get if they do.

It will also be a function of how much it costs. If the service was free, everyone would do it.

It’s been like that in the past, but it also caused buyers to be a little too casual about who they selected, and they tended to just grab someone – which doesn’t always bode well.

  • If the fee was 1% at closing, you’d probably do it – if you liked them.
  • If the fee was 1.5% to 2.0% and the terms were clean and non-exclusive plus the agent made a really good case why he’s worth it, then yeah, maybe.
  • If the fee was 2.5% to 3%, there would need to be some guarantees or real promise that you would get exactly what you wanted, and be very impressed with the service too.

Buyers will be able to include in their purchase offer that the seller pays all or part of the buyer-agent commission. But there won’t be any promises about what a seller might pay – if anything. So buyers should be prepared to pay the entire amount to their agent, as agreed up front.

What should buyers expect? What are the skills that good buyer-agents possess and implement on behalf of their buyers? Here is my quick list:

Overall analysis of general market conditions

Video /audio tours of prospective homes for sale

Pinpoint Home-Value Analyses

Measure up the sellers and listing agents

Winning-price predictions

Offer Strategies

Bidding-War Management

Contingent offers that win

Tough and detailed inspections with free quotes on repairs/improvements

Expert deal management

Foreclosure hunting

Bridge-loan financing

Off-market homes for sale

Sniff out any shenanigans

See the new listings in person every week.

There are also the 132 things agents do for buyers linked here, but the real problem is demonstrating the skills. How will buyers know what they need? How will agents show them what they have to offer?

When you go to the car dealer, they let you take the car for a drive around the block. How can you do that with a buyer-agent?

It would be fruitful for agents to have a blog where they demonstrate how they work, and provide evidence of their results. But that may be asking too much of agents.

We do free consultations for sellers. Let’s do them for buyers too.

Buyer-agents should offer their list of services AND be willing to meet any prospective clients-to-be at a home for sale so agents can show them what they do. A tour of a house to point out the positives and negatives will give the potential buyers a great sense of the agent’s expertise.

Agents – let’s make the free consultation at a home for sale part of the effort to assist buyers. Besides, you want to get a sense of whether you want to work with these buyers too.

Before you get married, you should have at least one date!

What do you look for when you meet your potential realtor at a home for sale to see what they have to offer? If they add to the experience something you didn’t know, then you’re on the right track – ask questions! If they say, “Here’s the kitchen”, it is an automatic disqualification – just run to your car!

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