Carmel Valley’s Hot Start

Above are the 2024 listings that have already closed escrow in Carmel Valley – it’s very competitive.

We’re heading into a new era where buyer-agents will be appreciated less than ever, if at all.

Consider this – in a bidding war where the sellers listing agent will be choosing between similar offers, won’t having a solid, reputable buyer’s agent on your side be helpful?

Not only will the buyer get strategic advice on making a more-lucrative offer, but the buyer-agent’s reputation will also play a role in the outcome. The listing agent will want to select a deal that has the best chance of closing easily, and their comfort and familarity with the buyer-agent will make a difference here in a tight race!

ADU Update

An interview with California state assembly member Phil Ting, the author of the $40,000 ADU grants, and the sponsor of many ADU bills in California. He authored AB 1033, which clarifies that anyone who wants to sell their ADU must file a condo map with the state. Turning your house + granny flat into a 2-unit condo will be the only way to get regular mortgages and title insurance so they can be sold separately, but it’s a major undertaking – how many people will process with a condo map?

Hat tip to Jorge for sending this in!

Carlsbad is $2,000,000+

Earlier today we saw how $2,000,000 sure doesn’t go as far as it used to. Once you think your home’s value is above $1,500,000, it’s a quick jump to $2,000,000 – and if you go to sell it, then a net of $2,000,000 sounds even better. Buy any decent coastal house you can get your hands on for less than $2 million!

For the trivia buffs who remember that this house below has history – it sold for less than $1,000,000….3x!

Today’s list price is $2,250,000, and it’s now pending!

Moving Towards Single Agency

It’s been obvious that the entire real-estate-selling business has been deteriorating towards single agency. I see it every day on the street, and I’ve posted evidence of the shift regularly.

The trend is moving quickly now on multiple fronts.

The DOJ is going to decouple commissions, which will prohibit sellers from offering to pay the buyer’s agent. The buyers can include it in their offer, but it likely won’t get that far. The buyer-agents who are left will want a written agreement to get paid by the buyer if the seller won’t pay. How many agents will be able to demonstrate why they are worth it? Not many, but maybe the buyers won’t ask too many questions.

Homes.com is spending millions and billions on advertising their website to compete with Zillow. Their twist? They funnel all the leads back to the listing agent, instead of farming them out to the highest bidders like Zillow does. I’ve been called by several phone jockeys from Homes.com to sign up for their enhanced listing packages, and I’ll sign up. Robert Reffkin responded positively to the Homes.com program, and you can see how Gary Keller feels about it above.

Agents are giving up on representing buyers because it’s too hard and doesn’t pay enough. Most of the unsold listings are grossly over-priced and the occasional deal gets multiple offers within minutes. Agents have to spend months or years working with their buyers before they get lucky, only to then get a reduced commission from the listing agent. Now I have to convince the buyer to pay the commission too? Great, thanks.

Listing agents are advertising for buyers to avoid paying the buyer’s-agent commission by coming directly to the listing agent instead. Realtor cannibalization is what we deserve. (link)

This house priced at $1,985,000 in Rancho Penasquitos received 15 offers and likely sold for 15% to 20% over list (an offer that was 12% over with free rentback wasn’t enough).

I remember when $2,000,000 got you a decent house in Carlsbad!

Biden Housing Tax Credits

It looks like the over-heated housing market will cause the government to do something so it looks like they care. There was a $8,000 first-time homebuyer credit back in 2009-2010 that was free money given to those who just happened to buy a house then – nobody bought a house just because of the credit. The same will happen now – it will just be free cheese for those buyers and sellers in the right place, at the right time.

How the two credits would work, according to the White House:

  • “Middle-class” first-time homebuyers would get an annual tax credit of $5,000 a year for two years. The White House didn’t specify what “middle class” means.
  • A one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to “middle-class families who sell their starter home, defined as homes below the area median home price in the county, to another owner-occupant.”

President Biden is calling on Congress to pass a mortgage relief credit that would provide middle-class first-time homebuyers with an annual tax credit of $5,000 a year for two years. This is the equivalent of reducing the mortgage rate by more than 1.5 percentage points for two years on the median home, and will help more than 3.5 million middle-class families purchase their first home over the next two years.

To qualify, home buyers must meet the following eligibility standards:

  1. Must not have owned a home in the last three years.
  2. Must not be a prior recipient of a first-time home buyer tax credit.
  3. Must not earn more than 60% above than the area’s median income.
  4. Must be making an arms-length transaction.
  5. Must be at least 18 years old.

The President’s plan also calls for a new credit to unlock inventory of affordable starter homes, while helping middle-class families move up the housing ladder and empty nesters right size. Many homeowners have lower rates on their mortgages than current rates. This “lock-in” effect makes homeowners more reluctant to sell and give up that low rate, even in circumstances where their current homes no longer fit their household needs.

The President is calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home, defined as homes below the area median home price in the county, to another owner-occupant. This proposal is estimated to help nearly 3 million families.

To qualify for the $10,000 Home Seller Tax Credit, sellers must meet the following eligibility requirements:

  • The home seller must live in the home they’re selling as their primary residence.
  • The home buyer must make the home their primary residence.
  • The home buyer must not earn more than 60% above the area median income.

Additionally, the home for sale must be a starter home which is defined as a home that sells for less than the county’s median home price. Eligible property types include single-family homes, condominiums, townhomes, multi-unit homes, and any other home zoned for residential residence.

The bill will increase available housing inventory for homes selling between $100,000-250,000 which, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing Home Sales report, is the fastest-selling segment of U.S. homes.

To take effect, these proposals would require Congressional approval. As of today, neither Democratic nor Republican leadership in the House or Senate has come out to support the measure.

President Biden also called on Congress to pass the Downpayment Toward Equity Act, a downpayment assistance program for first-generation home buyers that gives up to $25,000 in cash grants. The bill was originally introduced in the 2021-2022 Congress, then re-introduced in 2023. It has 44 co-sponsors in the House of Representatives. A corresponding bill is expected to be introduced in the Senate soon.

Zillow Local Forecasts

Last month their annual appreciation guesses were in the 3% to 4% range, now they are up to 4.9% to 6.3% for the next 12 months!

We’ll probably exceed those in the first quarter of 2024!

Carlsbad NW – 92008

Carlsbad SE – 92009

Carlsbad NE – 92010

Carlsbad SW – 92011

Carmel Valley – 92130

Del Mar – 92014

Encinitas – 92024

Rancho Santa Fe – 92067

Waiting For The Man

“I’m Waiting for the Man” is a song by American rock band the Velvet Underground. Written by Lou Reed, it was first released on their 1967 debut album, The Velvet Underground & Nico. The lyrics describe a man’s efforts to obtain heroin in Harlem.

In various reviews, it is described as “tough garage rock”, “proto-punk classic”, and “one of the all-time classic rock songs”, with renditions by a number of artists.

In 2004 Rolling Stone magazine ranked the song at number 159 on its list of the 500 Greatest Songs of All Time. It was moved to number 161 in 2010, and finally re-ranked at number 81 in 2021.

The magazine noted:

The Velvets mixed R&B rhythm-guitar workout, blues-piano stomp and dreamy art drone, as Reed deadpans a story about scoring $26 worth of heroin in Harlem. “Everything about that song holds true,” said Reed, “except the price.”

In December 1966, David Bowie’s manager, Kenneth Pitt, acquired an acetate of the then-unreleased The Velvet Underground & Nico and presented it to Bowie. Upon hearing “I’m Waiting for the Man”, he went to his band at the time, the Buzz, and told them they were going to learn it: “We learned ‘Waiting for the Man’ right then and there and we were playing it on stage within a week.” He later recalled in an 2003 interview with Vanity Fair: “Amusingly, not only was I to cover a Velvets song before anyone else in the world, I actually did it before the album came out. Now that’s the essence of Mod.”

Bowie first attempted to record “I’m Waiting for the Man” in the studio during the sessions for his 1967 debut album, and later properly recorded it with another band, the Riot Squad, on April 5, 1967. In his book Rebel Rebel, Chris O’Leary notes the subpar quality of the recording, writing that it “sounded as if they were making do with what they’d found in a school music room.” This version later appeared on the Riot Squad compilations The Last Chapter: Mods & Sods (2012) and The Toy Soldier EP. In this version, Bowie misinterpreted the song’s subject matter, containing the line “I’m just looking for a good friendly behind” instead of “I’m just looking for a dear, dear friend of mine”. Tony Visconti later told biographer Nicholas Pegg: “A very young David Bowie didn’t yet know that ‘the man’ in Harlem parlance meant the drug dealer. So he naturally assumed it was a gay encounter involving money.”

Bowie performed “I’m Waiting for the Man”, often titled as “Waiting for the Man”, for BBC radio shows in 1972 (one recording appearing on 2000’s Bowie at the Beeb) and frequently on the Ziggy Stardust Tour (one recording appearing on 1994’s Santa Monica ’72). He would further perform it on the 1976 Isolar Tour and the 1990 Sound+Vision Tour. While his 1967 recording followed Reed’s original chord structure, Bowie made subtle changes to his live performances. He performed the song with Reed at his 50th birthday bash in 1997. David Buckley writes that Bowie’s 1977 song “‘Heroes'” was influenced by Reed’s writing.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27m_Waiting_for_the_Man

Off-Market Sale

I thought it would never happen.

I sold a listing off-market.

There wasn’t much hope that we could sell 1704 Azul Vista for $2,000,000+.

There had been only one sale over $2 million ever, and it was an off-market sale in May, 2022 – the absolute peak of the frenzy. The five sales since then had struggled too, with most taking weeks to sell and various discounts needed – in blue below:

The last sale of the 3,372sf plan was in August, 2022 for $1,669,000.

My sellers and I agreed that the $2,200,000 sale was an outlier, and with the subsequent sales ranging from $1,600,000 to $1,760,000, we would be satisfied with $1,900,000, so we listed for that amount:

Donna correctly pointed out that our clients had not done much since we sold them the home in 2017, and even though it was the former model, it’s now a 20-year old former model. We agreed to embark on a thorough kitchen remodel to dazzle the buyers and ensure we could get the $1.9 million. Thankfully, it would take 6-7 weeks to complete the work, and we planned to hit the open market in February.

Then Tanya came along with her new listing.

She inputs 1021 Camino del Arroyo as a Coming Soon listing, priced at $2,350,000 because it had a $500,000 down-to-the-studs remodel – so they figured they deserved to use the $2.2 comp. Here’s the best part – someone who was crazy about this floor plan and neighborhood made a full-price cash offer, sight unseen!

I’ve been friends with Tanya for years, so I called her to get the scoop. She also tells me that Paul had called and he has a new listing of the same floor plan coming up too. I’ve known Paul for a long time, and once we all start talking, we realize that each of us would have a listing of the same 3,372sf model hit the market in three consecutive weeks!

The $2.35 listing set off a buzz in the neighborhood, and when the moving trucks rolled up to my listing, the word really got out. Paul’s listing looked at power lines and water tanks, so he kept his price at $1,895,000 – and got $1,960,000. But an agent whose buyer didn’t like Paul’s listing called me.

We did a kitchen remodel and had the ocean view. But there was still plenty of the 2005 model-home look, and it’s known that ocean views from San Marcos are intermittent at best.

I tell the agent that our price is going to be $2,200,000, and she sends over a $2,175,000 cash offer!

The $2,350,000 was such a lucky sale that we resisted the urge to think we would get that much or more if we went on the open market – there wasn’t any other solid evidence.  This isn’t Carlsbad, and it’s not even San Elijo Hills – it’s Lake San Marcos!

We took the deal.

I did input it onto the MLS after the buyer released all contingencies, and let it sit for almost 24 hours to see if there was any other interest.

I didn’t get a call.

We agreed that we did the right thing!

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