Happy Thanksgiving!

We are eternally grateful for all the generous support of Mama’s Kitchen. This year we distributed 92 pies and had another $1,700 in contributions that will enable Mama’s to provide about 1,740 medically-tailored meals to the critically ill in San Diego!

https://mamaskitchen.org/

Thanks so much for your support, and Happy Thanksgiving!

Thank you Eddie89 for alerting us to the rankings (the cash donations were counted as extra pies):

 

Turkey

Money will fix everything that’s wrong here – this listed for $1,800,000, and after a couple of false starts, it was sold by the estate of the original owner from 1978 to an investor for $1,685,000:

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, September

The year-end slide of the local non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index looks like it will last twice as long this year. In 2023, it was a relatively-brief three months, but this year the pricing turned in mid-summer.

Expect the same result in 2025 – the prime properties will fly off the market at premium prices and the junkers, OPTs, bad locations, and poorly-presented homes will languish through the second half of the year as they get picked over by the bargain hunters.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Non-Seasonally-Adjusted

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively.

“Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high.

“We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.”

Inventory Watch

Sellers are starting to cancel for the holidays….especially on the higher-end. But I get the feeling they will be back in 2025 – especially if the pendings count keeps rising!

There have been 97 closings this month (106 last November), and they look healthy compared to last year:

Median Sales Price: $2,402,000 (Last November was $2,150,000)

Average Cost-Per-SF: $1,011/sf ($956/sf)

Median Cost-Per-SF: $877/sf ($801/sf)

The economy is in good shape, rates might come down a little, and there will be quite a few more homes for sale next year. I think we’ll have a frenzy-like experience in early 2025!

(more…)

Truth Telling

Yesterday realtor Paul commented that he too has seen the Zillow views and saves get re-jiggered:

I have screenshots from a few listings that were showing a certain number of views. The next day the view count decreased almost 1K views. Next day it was down a few hundred more. It slowly crept back up in the next few days. It was a very popular property which is why the views were quite high. I lost all trust from Z when I saw this happening. If there is a reasonable explanation I’m open to hearing but it would need to be something like the internet got hacked or the power grid blew a gasket. Wtf lol.

So I guess we can consider Zillow and Redfin completely unreliable sources of accurate data. Let’s consider them entertainment websites where you can find your real estate porn.

Who’s left?

I spot-checked these and they line up with the MLS data:

It’s incredible that local pricing has been holding up as mortgage rates surged from 3% to 7%!

More Silver Tsunami Doom

Meredith is at it again……predicting the silver tsunami.  She doesn’t present any evidence or data to prove it’s happening or when or where it will happen. She’s just getting paid for being an ivory-tower doomer:

In fact, the article pretty much rebuffs the whole idea (hat tip to ‘just some guy’ for sending this in):

https://www.businessinsider.com/home-price-outlook-housing-market-forecast-baby-boomers-gen-z-2024-11

She said the same thing last November too:

Boomer Liquidations In 2024?

Most Livable Metros

San Diego ranks #60, so there are 59 other places to which you may want to consider moving!

Here’s a quick snapshot of what makes San Diego unique:

    • Quality of Life (#7): San Diego excels with 97.3% of residents having access to exercise opportunities, only 17.4% reporting physical inactivity, and 9 healthcare providers per 10,000 people.
    • Community & Location (#114): The city offers 4 arts and recreation venues per 10,000 people, and 6.4 social association opportunities for the same cohort, and a highly educated population (74.1% with higher education).
    • Socioeconomic Strengths (#114): San Diego’s income growth rate is a robust 8.5%, though its cost of living is 43% above the national average.

San Diego’s cultural scene, educated workforce, and health-conscious lifestyle make it an attractive metro, especially for those who can navigate its affordability challenges.

Check out the other areas here:

https://www.rentcafe.com/blog/rental-market/market-snapshots/most-livable-metro-areas/

Zillow Using Their Own Facts

Oh geez, here we go again.

The number of Zillow views DECLINED since yesterday.

How do the views go backwards?

We already know that Zillow recalibrates their zestimates to within 1% of the list price once a home is listed on the MLS, rendering their posted guesses of a home’s value as completely useless on active listings. They also re-jigger the entire zestimate history too, in a blatant attempt to appease the listing agents.

Now they are tinkering with the view counts too?

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Redfin is a lying scumbag too. This was their guess on Wednesday:

Now look at their bogus claim, just two days later:

Get Good Help!

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Follow up – this is the Saturday version, three days after the listing hit the MLS. But by now I don’t know who or what to believe, if anything. It like learning about Santa Claus!

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