88 Offers, 76 Cash Offers

This is the other article that several people sent in – thank you!

Rob Dawg wondered if these cases of dozens of offers could be tempered by putting the right price on these from the beginning. The agent’s Zillow profile shows 30 sales in the last year – and 26 of those were seller sides which is great and it means she knows something about pricing.  But I think when you are pricing a home on the lower-end of the market these days, you can add easily 10% on top of the comps and buyers won’t notice – because other sellers are already doing it too. Note: the agent didn’t take the highest offer here either.

Ellen Coleman had never received so many offers on a house in her 15 years of selling real estate.

She listed a fixer-upper in suburban Washington, DC for $275,000 on a Thursday. By Sunday evening, she had 88 offers. “The offers just kept coming,” she said. “I felt like Lucy with the chocolates. I’m thinking, ‘This is just out of control.'”

Of those 88 offers, 76 were all-cash, said Coleman, who works for RE/MAX Realty Centre. There wasn’t even enough time for all of the bidders to visit the property. She said 15 offers were sight unseen.

The four-bedroom, 1,800 square-foot home sold for $460,000, nearly a 70% increase from the asking price. She said the winning bid was not the highest offer, but it was all-cash with no contingencies and it had paperwork in place.

The buyer, she said, is an investor who is likely to renovate and resell at an even higher price.

“It was a lower priced property for the area and may have been an outlier,” she said. But even her other listings have typically been getting closer to 15 offers. “Several people came in wanting to be homeowners and do the repairs themselves. There is such low inventory out there and people feel like that is a way they can get into a home.”

Read full article here:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/29/success/when-will-housing-market-cool-off-feseries/index.html

NSDCC March Sales – Preliminary

Pending home sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, fell a wider-than-expected 10.6% in February compared with January, according to the NAR. Sales were 0.5% lower year over year. There were just 1.03 million homes for sale at the end of February, a 29.5% drop compared with February 2020. That is the largest annual decline ever and the lowest supply on record.

Yesterday’s real estate news was filled with drops and declines, but around here we’re doing fine:

NSDCC March Sales – Preliminary

Year
March Closings
Median Sales Price
Median Days-On-Market
2019
211
$1,299,999
17
2020
206
$1,445,000
12
2021
241
$1,810,000
9

The median sales price rose 25% year-over-year!

Double Bubble?

Are we in a bubble?

Who cares about the label.

All that matters is whether the bubble going to burst.

Four reasons why it won’t:

  1. No easy money – buyers have to be solid qualifiers.
  2. Foreclosures are extinct.
  3. Everyone has loads of equity (except 2021 buyers).
  4. No easy place to move to.

For the bubble to burst, we would need an event to drive down prices. Sellers would have to panic and cheap-sell for less to start a downward cycle. Even an earthquake probably wouldn’t be enough.

Link to Wolf Article

 

122 Offers

Thanks to the readers who sent in this article – and it makes you wonder how many offers any house for sale would get if listing agents didn’t shut down the showings so quickly:

CITRUS HEIGHTS, Calif. (KTXL) — A Citrus Heights home in a quiet cul-de-sac received 122 offers in one weekend on the market.

The 1,400 square feet home has three bedrooms, two baths and a spacious backyard with a swimming pool and an asking price of $399,900.00.

“People would think that it was underpriced. It was not underpriced. It was straight on with the comps,” said Deb Brittan, the listing agent for the property. “I had hoped, I thought, maybe if we get 20 offers that would be amazing.”

Barry and Anita Jackier are the sellers of the Citrus Heights home.

“We had this little friendly wager going. I’m like, ‘I think we’re going to get eight offers,” Anita Jackier said.

“I said 10,” Barry Jackier said.

They all underestimated the number of offers, by a lot.

They received 122 offers in one weekend.

“That’s 121 people who didn’t get a house. And that’s kind of heartbreaking in this market to think that there are so many buyers out there. And if you don’t have an agent that understands how to put a strategic offer in on a house and get it accepted, you’re just out burning your gas and a lot of emotional turmoil because of the nature of our market currently,” Brittan said.

Brittan says the highest offer was above $500,000, but that was not the winning offer. There were other factors to consider.

The couple is buying a home in Idaho.

They need time for the escrow to close on that home, so one big factor was they needed a buyer to wait until that happens before moving in.

“I’d like to think that the buyer that was supposed to have gotten the house, has gotten the house,” Brittan said.

The selling price of the home was in the mid-$400,000 range.

“We have so many great memories. And that’s going to be hard to let go of,” Barry Jackier said.

“But you know what I’m excited about is now another family gets to have a blank palate to make all those memories on. We are keeping those memories and they have an opportunity to start their own,” Anita Jackier said.

The couple said they felt called by God to move to Idaho and from that perspective, it’s a miracle they were able to find a home there.

“That house was on the market for three hours,” Anita Jackier told FOX40.

“So I don’t know that it’s going to slow down any time soon. And I don’t know what it’s going to take to slow it down,” Brittan said.

https://fox40.com/news/home-for-sale-in-citrus-heights-receives-122-offers-in-one-weekend/

Pricing Spurt

Yesterday’s Case-Shiller Index was a reflection of November, December, and January market data.  Here’s a local supplement to help map out what’s coming – and this is only through February:

This was in a fairly tight range of $400/sf to $450/sf for a couple of years. But six months ago, this metric went ballistic, and in that short of time it’s catapulted well into the $500s!

Tracy & Eric

The intertubes go crazy about what a racist Eric Clapton was, but let’s consider the full spectrum.

He was such a heroin addict that he didn’t leave his house for three years.

He was so madly in love with Pattie Boyd that she finally divorced his best friend George Harrison and married him. They divorced ten years later.

Coming off the heroin trip, be became so addicted to alcohol that he couldn’t finish a concert.

He was so drunk at one show that he went off on a racist bender. I don’t forgive him for that, but let’s don’t trash the rest of his 50 years of contribution just because of one bad night. He has received 18 Grammys and is the only three-time inductee of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Clapton

Happy Birthday to Eric & Tracy – they share a birthday today!

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Jan

It’s more than just the trendy areas – it’s red-hot everywhere.

Every metro area on the list is having substantial gains in their index, which means there has been a psychological shift happening coast-to-coast on how human beings feel about their homes.  With the real-estate-selling business being one of the last totally-free markets left, it’s going to run wild for a while.

The #1 market, Phoenix, hit +1.9% month-over-month, which is incredible for a January reading.

It should put them on track for a +20% to +25% annual gain in 2021, and we won’t be far behind.

I think we might catch them!

San Diego had positive gains straight through the Covid-19 era last year, and now we have 2% monthly gains in our sights for the next few months. Look how that compares to the 2019 readings:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
June
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
July
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%

From S&P

“The strong price gains that we observed in the last half of 2020 continued into the f irst month of the new year. In January 2021, the National Composite Index rose by 11.2% compared to its year-ago levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara,Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P DJI. “The trend of accelerating prices that began in June 2020 has now reached its eighth month and is also reflected in the 10- and 20-City Composites (up 10.9% and 11.1%, respectively). The market’s strength is broadly-based: all 20 cities rose, and all 20 cities gained more in the 12 months ended in January 2021 than they had gained in the 12 months ended in December 2020.

“January’s performance is particularly impressive in historical context. The National Composite’s 11.2% gain is the highest recorded since February 2006, just one month shy of 15 years ago. In more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, January’s year-over-year change is comfortably in the top decile. That strength is reflected across all 20 cities. January’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.

“January’s data remain consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a shift in the demand curve for housing. Future data will be required to analyze this question

“Phoenix’s 15.8% increase led all cities for the 20th consecutive month, with Seattle (+14.3%) and San Diego (+14.2%) close behind. Although prices were strongest in the West (+11.7%), gains were impressive in every region.”

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Max Showings?

This year’s orange line has plateaued. It’s been in the 70% range all month, meaning there has been 70% more showings each week than there were during the first week of the year.

Even though it’s twice as much, it mirrors the 2019 trend that the spring selling season is underway, and I think we can assume that every buyer who is thinking about moving in 2021 is out looking at homes.

The buyer pool is full, and engaged.  Sellers, no need to wait!

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