Inventory Watch

As the vacation season kicks in, the frenzy may become a little more manageable – only because there could be fewer buyers vying for each new listing. But the environment won’t change until we get a flood of inventory, which isn’t happening yet:

NSDCC New Listings Between March 1st and May 31

Year
Number of New Listings
Median List Price
Avg. Mortgage Rate in April
2017
1,499
$1,399,000
4.05%
2018
1,437
$1,475,000
4.47%
2019
1,494
$1,499,925
4.14%
2020
1,140
$1,598,150
3.31%
2021
1,164
$1,949,000
3.06%

Yes, mortgage rates in the 3s are 25% lower than when they are in the 4s, but on a million-dollar loan the drop only saves you $558 per month – and the bump in pricing gobbles up all of it, and more.

It’s the cumulative effect of many variables that will keep the frenzy conditions alive. The only thing that will cause the frenzy to die is a surge in inventory – and that isn’t happening yet, and may never happen.

BTW, that’s a 22% increase YoY in the median list price.

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Happy Father’s Day

The ticket sales for the U.S. Open couldn’t have been managed more poorly.

They sold all the tickets well in advance – but during the Covid-19 era so they knew the restrictions. Then they cancelled all the tickets and executed refunds to every purchaser.

I had bought tickets for contest winners here, only to have them get refunded.  Then when they did go to re-sell tickets, they limited the amount due to covid-19 – which they knew was happening when they sold the first round. As a result, I only got two tickets, and went with wifey yesterday.

Sorry contest winners!

Phil has complained about fans making noise with their cameras, but no harm was done here. My camera has a button to turn off the noises.

We saw Rory chip in on #12, and we were in the highlight clip – as his ball is heading for the pin, look for Donna (in blue top and white pants):

Carlsbad Golf

It’s golf week!

CARLSBAD, Calif. – It’s been dubbed the Silicon Valley of golf and compared to Detroit for the auto industry or to Akron, Ohio, the rubber capital of the world. Over the last 30 years, Carlsbad, this sleepy little beach town and agricultural community located 35 miles north of San Diego, has exploded into the golf equipment epicenter. And not surprisingly, a haven for golfers too.

Carlsbad rises from ocean to hills. A pioneering speculator dug a well there in 1883, discovered mineral water believed to restore health and earned the city its name after the spa town of Karlovy Vary (Karlsbad) in the Czech Republic. Health seekers and sun worshipers have been coming in droves ever since for the fine, uncrowded beaches, and, of course, the water.

Link to Article

“Tenant From Hell”

The majestic home had it all — five bedrooms, four bathrooms, a three-car garage and a spacious basement in a beautiful neighborhood in Colorado Springs. If the single-family house sounds too good to be true, stepping inside the property shows prospective buyers a stunning reality: walls spray-painted with vulgarities, rooms destroyed with a hammer, carpet reeking of human and animal feces, and dead cats locked in a bathroom.

“How do you like the s— on the carpets,” read the spray paint in the dining room.

What was once Suzy Myers’s pride and joy was now every landlord’s nightmare, thanks to a departing tenant who didn’t pay rent, she told The Washington Post. A Tuesday listing on Redfin described the house as a “little slice of hell” that stemmed from, fittingly, “a tenant from hell.”

“This house is not for the faint of heart but for that special person who can see through the rough diamond to the polished gem inside,” real estate agent Mimi Foster wrote. She said in a video tour of the home, “Nothing could have prepared me for what I was about to encounter.”

Link to Full Article

NSDCC May Listings & Sales

We’re still waiting for that flood of inventory!

NSDCC May Listings and Sales

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
# Sales
Median SP
Avg. $/sf
Median $/sf
2017
507
$1,370,000
345
$1,200,000
$525/sf
$418/sf
2018
522
$1,399,450
273
$1,325,000
$592/sf
$480/sf
2019
502
$1,450,000
297
$1,365,000
$598/sf
$502/sf
2020
484
$1,579,716
143
$1,395,000
$565/sf
$488/sf
2021
396
$2,000,000
301
$1,989,000
$769/sf
$655/sf

Last month’s sales didn’t set a record, but they were very strong given the shortage of inventory which was about 25% under the usual number of May listings.

Check the YoY price increases for May:

Median Sales Price: +43%

Average $$/sf: +36%

Median $$/sf: +34%

No matter how you measure it, pricing is through the roof!

The Post-Covid Era for Real Estate

The best part about returning to normal is dropping the requirement of having to sign the covid disclosure – known as a ‘pead’ – just to see a house. I don’t mind the paperwork, it’s the badgering by listing agents to submit the form immediately before anything else can happen – like scheduling a showing. I hope we get back to talking about sales!

The California economy will reopen on June 15th and, with limited exceptions, will return to normal operations.

Q1. Will there be any restrictions on open houses or showings?

A1. The only legal restriction will be for wearing masks, otherwise there will be no restrictions. No physical distancing will be required for attendees, guests and customers. No cleaning. No posted rules of entry. And no PEADs or any other type of sign in. No one will have to agree to an office prevention plan. No one will have to attest to their current health status.

Q2. What will the rule be for wearing masks?

A2. The rule is: People must wear a mask indoors unless they are fully vaccinated. This follows the CDPH Guidance for Face Coverings (last updated on June 9, 2021). For fully vaccinated persons, it will make no difference that other unvaccinated persons are present indoors. As long as a person is fully vaccinated, that person need not wear a mask.

Q3. Are there any exceptions from the mask wearing requirements?

A3: Yes. The following individuals are exempt from wearing masks:

  • Two-year-old children or younger.
  • Persons with a medical condition, mental health condition, or disability that prevents wearing a mask, or are otherwise unable to remove a mask without assistance. For example, a person for whom wearing a mask could obstruct breathing.
  • Hearing impaired persons who need to see the whole face for communication or be understood.
  • Persons whose work exempts them by law.

Q4. My seller wants to require that everyone entering the property wear a mask or be vaccinated. Can the seller require this?

A4. Yes. The seller can set their own rules as to who will be admitted to the property.

The seller can:

  • Require all visitors to wear a mask.
  • Require all visitors to be vaccinated or show a negative COVID test.
  • Implement a vaccine verification to determine whether individuals are required to wear a mask.
  • Provide information to all visitors regarding vaccination requirements and allow vaccinated individual to self-attest that they are in compliance prior to entry.

If your seller would like these rules implemented, you will need the seller’s consent. Your office may require that the listing be formally amended. You may add optional language such as, “with the exception of _____________________________________ .” or “The following showing requirements shall be followed: ______________________________________.”

On a separate note, if the Listing Agreement Coronavirus Addendum or Amendment (C.A.R. Form RLA-CAA) has already been signed, you may want to now add a Modification of Terms by writing the following into the Other paragraph: “The RLA-CAA, dated ________, is terminated.”

Q5. What is the practical advice for a seller and/or a broker regarding mask wearing requirements?

A5. The practical advice is to adopt a policy that requires everyone to wear a mask. It’s true that a fully vaccinated person after June 14 need not wear a mask, but then that puts the agent in the position of having to ask everyone about their vaccination status. Rather than do that, wouldn’t it be simpler and easier just to adopt a blanket rule that everyone visiting a property wear a mask? Discuss your approach with the seller to obtain the seller’s agreement.

RSF Newly-Built One-Story Estates

Buyers dig the new one-story estates in Rancho Santa Fe!  The house across the street sold for $10,850,000 in January (the third time it sold for $10,000,000+) and then the brand-new house on Las Planideras sold for $12,500,000 in February (click here for videos on both):

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/category/rancho-santa-fe/

This 10,234sf beauty went pending in five days, and closed escrow today for $13,500,000:

Brent the photo/videographer is one of the best around.

Inventory Watch

It’s not going to be easy for people to judge the frenzy conditions, and as a result, there is going to be overshoot.  Even the agents get in a frenzy groove and keep expecting that every house will get multiple offers and a bidding war – and the superior homes probably deserve it.

But how do you know which is which?

Get Good Help!

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Mostly Happy Buyers

The only buyers with regrets will be those who purchase in the last 2-3 months of increasing prices in their area:

he news seems to be filled these days with tearful tales of folks who bought homes for well over the asking price—some sight unseen—during the coronavirus pandemic. They lament that they bought these properties at the height of the real estate market, often spending more than they planned, and didn’t have the time to conduct more thorough inspections or determine whether the location was right for them.

Now a reality check: Most folks who closed on new properties aren’t suffering from buyer’s remorse, according to a recent Realtor.com® survey.  Not even close. Almost three-quarters of folks who bought homes in the time of COVID-19 are happy with their purchases, the findings showed. About 1,000 people who purchased homes within the past 12 months participated in the survey, which was conducted between March 26 and April 7.

In fact, about 71% of those surveyed say buying was a good decision, while 75% say their new home is a good fit for their families. In fact, many wish they had taken the plunge and moved sooner, before the number of homes for sale shriveled up just as waves of buyers flooded the market.

About three-quarters of these homeowners had planned to buy before the pandemic. Just a quarter bought in response to COVID-19. And almost half, 48%, say they didn’t feel rushed or pressured into a sale.

Meanwhile, only 19% wish they had waited to buy and less than a third would have spent more time looking if they could do it all over again.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/most-pandemic-buyers-happy-with-their-homes/

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