This is the second collection of clips I did for our Instagram Reels. Because they were done with a handheld camera, there is a little too much face here. It might be better to watch it from across the room!
P.S. Are you getting these types of insights from other agents?
If not, maybe we should talk about how else I can help you!
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
The total number of active listings has dropped 14% over the last two weeks, with Carlsbad SE taking the brunt of it as the actives got cut in half (46 to 23) while the 92009 pendings shot up by 32% (34 to 45). Don’t sleep on this market – there is still plenty of interest in buying quality homes.
Look how steady each area has been:
NSDCC Active and Pending Detached-Home Listings
In the previous FM, I said that the March-May period had to be the hottest of all-time, but we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th last year – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7th.
We can also track the average market times too. Any upward trends here would indicate market slowing, but there could be several reasons, like the listing agents letting a few more days to elapse before concluding the biding war(?). Or buyers being more deliberate (which is more likely):
While the market was once speeding along at 125 MPH, now it’s a steady cruise around 80 MPH. Everything settling down little by little, with an occasional hot new listing that really stands out.
The list price here was $2,180,000, and it took 42 days to find the winner – who settled for a 3.5% discount. The final sales price was $2,102,000:
In his 58 years as drummer for the Rolling Stones, Charlie never missed a gig.
Here’s how he saw it from behind the very minimal drum kit he used:
With no single-family homes in Carlsbad priced under $1,000,000, what do you get at the entry level? Here you go – a 1,350sf condo priced at $615,000 that has drawn several offers, and the bidding war is on:
We just sold this immaculate like-new home located in gated Candela in Rancho Tesoro. This versatile floor plan includes gathering areas both on the main level and upstairs plus an en-suite guest bedroom downstairs. Numerous upgrades throughout the home made it move in ready!
212 Jasper Way, San Marcos
5 br/5 ba, 3,565sf
SP = $1,350,000
Hard to find a turnkey detached home in a gated community at this price point any more! Remodeled kitchen, LVP flooring, neutral paint, and 2-car garage with extra-long driveway for additional parking!
2026 Bravado Way, Vista
3 br/2.5 ba, 1,543sf
YB: 1999
HOA = $148/mo.
SP = $737,000 – SOLD
We represented the buyers.
These guys are predicting a very similar market in 2022, and it will depend on the inventory. If we have the same number of listings (or fewer, which I think is probable), their 24.7% increase is in the bag.
From the U-T:
San Diego home prices will maintain their meteoric rise in the next 12 months, a new study says, with a hefty increase of 24.7 percent to a median home price nearing $1 million.
Home improvement site Porch, which provides research on housing market trends, said the San Diego metropolitan area will experience the third-highest price increases in the nation — led by current data showing how much homes are selling for over asking and wage growth.
It said Austin, Texas, will have the biggest increase at 37.1 percent, followed by Phoenix at 26.2 percent. The San Diego metropolitan area (which includes all of San Diego County) had seen prices rise 15.2 percent in a year as of July. Analysts have said low mortgage rates, scarcity, improved fortunes of stay-at-home workers and millennials aging into homeownership are the biggest reasons why prices continue to surge.
Porch predicts home prices will rise across the United States in the next year for the same reasons and will be led by Western states. It used a variety of sources for its predictions — Zillow, Redfin, the U.S. census, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices — to show where homes were selling over asking prices, how much they had already increased, and where median household incomes were strong.
If Porch’s prediction comes true, the median home price in San Diego County will be $940,933 at this time next year.
“The U.S. real estate market is reaching unprecedented heights,” Porch researchers said in the report.
Nathan Moeder, principal with San Diego real estate analysts London Moeder Advisors, said the Porch forecast was plausible but said a countywide 24.7 percent increase is probably high. However, he said that if you look at specific housing types and location, it’s not that hard to imagine.
Moeder said North County single-family homes could easily be up 25 percent in a year because that is where there is the most high-wage growth is and single-family home construction is considerably down. The Porch study looked at all home types — townhouses, condos, single-family — for its prediction, but Moeder said the single-family market is where we will probably see the most eye-popping results. “You can never be 100 percent correct in a forecast,” he said. “If someone asked me if single-family homes increase 25 percent, I could see that being a plausible scenario because we aren’t building any more.”
San Diego County single-family home construction has still not recovered since the Great Recession, with most regional planners favoring multifamily construction to fit more people in rapidly decreasing available land. Moeder said the problem with that scenario is the majority of the demand is for single-family properties, which means they will continue to go to the highest bidder for the reasonable future.
There were 3,160 single-family homes constructed in 2020, 3,043 in 2019 and 3,389 in 2018, said the Real Estate Research Council of Southern California. Compare that with 9,555 in 2004 and 7,904 in 2005.
Alan Nevin, Xpera housing analyst, also felt the Porch forecast was high, with a 12 to 15 percent increase in the next year more likely. He said things that could slow the growth are a rise in mortgage rates, or a change in loan-to-value terms. He said mortgages that require only 3 percent down for ever-increasing home prices might be seen as increasingly risky. However, Nevin said neither scenario has shown signs of happening yet.
In his latest report for the Greater San Diego Association of Realtors, Nevin wrote there were just 1,373 single-family homes sold for under $500,000 in July 2021 (using a 12-month rolling average). That compares with 3,445 at the same time last year. There were 7,130 condos sold under $500,000, using the same formula, compared with 7,226 at the same time in 2020.
Porch forecast the nationwide home price will increase 15 percent at the same time San Diego metro will jump by 24.7 percent. California metros are all expected to make big strides in the next year. Porch said San Jose would increase 24.5 percent, Riverside by 21.8 percent, San Francisco by 21.2 percent, Sacramento by 18.7 percent and Los Angeles by 18.5 percent.
Predictions for home prices are typically seen as tricky business because changes in mortgage rates, unexpected events (such as COVID-19) and natural disasters can shift the market considerably. The San Diego Union-Tribune’s 12-person panel of business leaders and economists predicted in December 2019 that the median home price at the end of 2020 would be $570,000 at the lowest and $624,500 at the highest. It ended the year at $715,500.
Forecast annual price growth by Porch:
Austin, Texas: 37.1 percent
Phoenix: 26.2 percent
San Diego: 24.7 percent
San Jose: 24.5 percent
Salt Lake City: 23.5 percent
Las Vegas: 23.3 percent
Riverside: 21.8 percent
San Francisco: 21.2 percent
Dallas-Fort Worth: 21.1 percent
Denver: 20.8 percent
Fresno: 19.8 percent
Pittsburgh: 19.8 percent
Tampa, Fla.: 18.8 percent
Sacramento: 18.7 percent
Tucson: 18.6 percent
$19,900,000
15,435 square foot Main Residence; Plus: “The Lillian” Tennis Cottage; Recreation/Two Bedroom Guest House; and the Two Bedroom Staff House on 8.13 acres
Mike thought the inventory was going to peak by now, but notes that the number of national listings is still growing. He also says that sales are strong too, which might suggest that we could have a late rally in spite of the delta variant.
If buyers have more choices, it improves their chances of finding a suitable home to purchase!
See more of Mike’s report here:
https://twitter.com/mikesimonsen/status/1429878364232306713
Who knows – our local inventory could keep climbing too, though it’s still below normal:
