Over the last week there were 37 new listings….and 50 new pendings.
Even though demand remains strong, we’re just going to fade into the holidays – only because there aren’t enough new listings coming to market!
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One factor that will slow down the exodus is the increased difficulty of moving out of state – it’s not easy, or cheap, to buy a home outside of California any more. But fewer people leaving will mean less inventory – and could ramp up the frenzy in 2022.
The researchers used open-source data from Zillow or other providers to score the top 100 overvalued or undervalued metro areas in the nation, ranking the cities by a percent premium homebuyers are paying in today’s market based on a history of past pricing.
Here’s how the top 10 rankings landed, according to the research:
The typical value of homes in Boise was over $523,300 as of the end of August, up more than 46% over the past year, according to Zillow.
Link to Full ArticleThis might be the last straw for some homeowners who are already tired of the higher taxes in this state:
https://californianewstimes.com/politics-report-bia-talks-new-tax/493057/
An excerpt:
Environmentalists and union laborers are working on a ballot initiative that could be some form of property or parcel tax to fund needed improvements and infrastructure in how we handle stormwater.
SANDAG and supporters of transit have been talking about the need for a new tax measure to expand the options people have to get around San Diego.
And we broke the news here that the largest labor union of city of San Diego workers has joined with the philanthropists behind the Library Foundation and Parks Foundation to support a measure that would implement a parcel tax to bring in more revenue to support libraries and parks in the city.
There’s a lot of tax talk going on.
And now there’s more.
The Building Industry Association, which is only a few weeks out from installing a new CEO, has outlined an ambitious plan to try to spur the creation of more affordable and middle-income housing. And one feature of it is to put a fee on real estate transactions.
It’s not something the group is determined to pursue but the idea has now advanced far enough to reportedly irk some of its allies. It’s part of a document the group is working on called a Three-Pronged Approach to Finance and Build Additional Restricted Affordable Housing in San Diego.
“This transfer tax (% to be determined) should be charged only at the point of a property sale, and should only be charged on the amount of property value increase a property owner received,” the document reads.
Lori Holt Pfeiler, the new CEO of BIA San Diego, cautioned the idea is just that – an idea. And she was a bit frustrated that the Politics Report got a hold of the document laying it out because she hadn’t had a chance to really discuss it and have partners, like real estate friends who have partnered with the BIA over the years, to influence it and get on board.
Tony Manolatos, who serves as a spokesman for the BIA, told the Politics Report that he wouldn’t be surprised if the measure was advanced for the November 2022 ballot.
“They haven’t settled on any tactics,” he said. “There is a real sense of urgency, though, to create more housing especially for the middle class.”
Read full article here:
https://californianewstimes.com/politics-report-bia-talks-new-tax/493057/
Governor Newsom signed SB 9 yesterday, but it won’t change much because building an ADU is cost prohibitive. How many people need one bad enough that they would spend $50,000 to $100,000 and go through the hassle? Plus the number of available parcels will limit how many could get built:
https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/08/california-housing-crisis-zoning-bill/
An excerpt:
Senate Bill 9, one of several measures alluded to by the signs, would technically allow as many as two duplexes, two houses with attached units, or a combination — capped at four units — on single-family lots across California, without local approval.
On Sept. 16, two days after winning the recall election, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the bill into law, despite pleas from cities to veto it.
But some analysts say the linchpin of the Senate’s housing package would probably have a negligible impact on the California housing crisis, at least in the short-term. As for the nightmare scenario described by opponents? There simply isn’t enough evidence to back that up, either.
That’s because a change to zoning means very little in reality, starting with the number of units that would actually get built, these analysts say.
Development would be realistic in only about 410,000 parcels in California at most, or 5.4% of land now occupied by single-family houses, according to a new study by the Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley based on the version of the bill without the new amendments.
That could add a total of 700,000 new units across California, if every single homeowner for whom the change made sense chose to develop. “Overall, that’s a sliver of the 7.5 million single-family homes throughout the state,” said David Garcia, policy director for the Terner Center.
One of the new amendments — which requires owners to live in the home for at least three years after they split their lots and build as many as four units — cuts the potential total of new units by 40,000, or 6%.
The analysis was conducted using current land values and development costs, so the number of feasible units could change. But Garcia said that was unlikely in the near-term. The study found that the typical property owner could not afford to build a second unit, much less a third or fourth. Other barriers: The new split lot couldn’t be less than 1,200 square feet, and historic districts, fire hazard zones and some rural areas would be barred from development.
“You would not see the wholesale bulldozing of single-family homes, as we’ve seen characterized in many of the public comments in committee hearings,” Garcia said. “There’s just no financial basis for that fear.”
https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/08/california-housing-crisis-zoning-bill/
Here’s my cruise through the original Carlsbad landscape:
These Instagram reels are a challenge just to see if you can say something of value in less than 30 seconds. Here’s my attempt today:
Home buyers don’t have much – if any – control over the process, which leads to frustration and disappointment. They don’t have any way to cause more homes to list for sale, and the only way to eliminate the competition is to out-bid them, which can be even more harrowing.
One solution is for buyers to expand their parameters, but that’s not easy and can lead to another ailment that a client described yesterday as “frozen in indecision”.
Just when you want to give up……it looks like others might have beaten you to it!
Showings throughout the state are lower than they were during the first week of January!
It’s been mentioned that not every agent uses this service, but it is such a large sample size that the trend should be a decent indicator of buyer sentiment – they’re exhausted.
Sure, active listings are half of what they were at this time last year, but the showings are 260% different!
Just like with selling, when is the best time to be a buyer? When no one else is!
We already know what’s going to happen with sales in 2022 – they will be the same as this year, with a possible adjustment of +/- 10%.
But the rest of 2021 could get wacky!
It looks like the competition is dwindling, and any seller who comes to market around the holidays has to be motivated! Buyers – stay in the hunt!
The percentage of buyers who were willing to pay over list cooled a bit in August:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
April: 55%
May: 54%
June: 59%
July: 64%
August: 55%
There were 28% of the total sales that closed for $100,000+ over list price! (July was 33%)
The mix was remarkably similar to previous months:
Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range
| Price Range | ||||||
| $0 – $1.0M | ||||||
| $1.0M – $1.5M | ||||||
| $1.5M – $2.0M | ||||||
| $2.0M – $3.0M | ||||||
| $3M+ |
The average prices were down just slightly, but the medians went up:
NSDCC Average and Median Prices
| Month | |||||
| Feb | |||||
| March | |||||
| April | |||||
| May | |||||
| June | |||||
| July | |||||
| Aug |
Compared to last August, the average sales price was +27%, and the median sales price was +37%!
In July, they were +31% and +30%.
Fewer sales, and higher prices. Sales should taper off the rest of the year, but not sure if pricing will follow!
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I’m a big proponent of kids taking over the family enterprise, especially when they remain so true to the original:
The life and music of Gregg Allman will be celebrated with an 18-city Allman Family Revival tour that kicks off November 27th in St. Louis and wraps up December 19th in Los Angeles.
Greg’s son Devon Allman and his group the Allman Betts Band will be the featured act alongside Robert Randolph, Donavon Frankenreiter, Lilly Hiatt, Cody and Luther Dickinson, Eric Gales, Joanne Shaw Taylor, Jimmy Hall, and Lamar Williams Jr. They will be joined in select cities by Kenny Wayne Shepherd, G. Love, Samantha Fish, Alex Orbison, and Kenny Aronoff.
The Allman Family Revival began as a celebration of Gregg’s 70th birthday in December 2017. It’s grown into a yearly tradition, and this year they’re planning Last Waltz-style evenings packed with musical collaborations.
“I like having artists that knew Dad, played with him, maybe were an opening act, or were really influenced and inspired by him,” Devon Allman says in a statement. “As for a venue, I prefer those turn-of-the-century to mid-20th century, old-school theaters. They are just gorgeous inside, sculpted for sound, and provide the perfect location for these very special shows. I love for this concert to feel like a night at the theater for our audience.”
Devon Allman formed the Allman Betts Band in 2018 with Duane Betts, the son of Allman Brothers guitarist Dickey Betts. They play a mixture of original songs and tip their caps to their fathers by adding a couple of Allman Brothers classics to each live show.
“I don’t think that that would be very respectful of the legacy,” Devon Allman told Rolling Stone in 2018. “It’s always going be a balance, and my number one thing is integrity and class. So is there a way to kind of perpetuate it within a loose framework? Yes. But to come out and use their name, or the mushrooms and the peaches after they worked hard for all that? No. It’s one thing to play a handful of songs and tip your hat to them and give the people that nostalgia. It’s quite another thing to open up shop on a business that wrapped up their shop already.”
Allman Family Revival Tour
November 27th – St. Louis, MO @ The Factory
November 29th – Dallas, TX @ Majestic Theater
November 30th – Austin, TX @ ACL Live at The Moody Theater
December 1st – New Orleans, LA @ Saenger Theater
December 2nd – @ Atlanta, GA Coca-Cola Roxy
December 3rd – Sarasota, FL @ Van Wezel PAC
December 5th – Huntington, NY @ The Paramount
December 7th – Boston, MA @ Orpheum Theater
December 8th – New York, NY @ Beacon Theater
December 9th – Philadelphia, PA @ The Met
December 10th – Silver Springs, MD @ Fillmore
December 11th – Ann Arbor, MI @ Michigan Theater
December 12th – Chicago, IL @ Chicago Theater
December 14th – Tulsa, OK @ Brady Theater
December 16th – Phoenix, AZ @ Arizona Federal Theatre
December 17th – Las Vegas, NV @ Theater at Virgin Hotels
December 18th – San Francisco, CA @ The Fillmore
December 19th – Los Angeles, CA @ The Wiltern
Here’s an example of what you get in a cheap beach condo west of the tracks in Carlsbad and only block-and-a-half from the beach. This sold for full price, $699,000:
