by Jim the Realtor | Dec 16, 2021 | Boomers, Frenzy, Market Conditions, Where to Move
In San Diego County, the excessive frenzy conditions have been driven by newcomers who don’t have a house here yet, and who figure that they just have to pay what it takes to get one.
It is those buyers that out-bid the locals. As those numbers dwindle, the frenzy will subside:
News reports, anecdotes, and preliminary research have speculated about whether there has been an exodus from California during the COVID-19 pandemic. The implications of population changes, such as federal representation and federal funding allocations, are significant.
This policy brief uses the University of California Consumer Credit Panel (UC-CCP), a dataset containing residential locations for all Californians with credit history, to track domestic residential moves into and out of California at a quarterly frequency through the end of September 2021. This brief updates our spring 2021 analysis that used data through December 2020.
https://www.capolicylab.org/pandemic-patterns-california-is-seeing-fewer-entrances-and-more-exits/
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 15, 2021 | 2022, Frenzy, Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Market Conditions |
A reader on Twitter wondered how rising rates will affect the 2022 frenzy.
Here’s what is expected today:
Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to execute a sharp turn toward tighter interest-rate policies with inflation accelerating and unemployment falling faster than expected.
The Fed today will likely announce that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases at twice the rate that Powell had outlined just six weeks ago. Those bond purchases are intended to lower longer-term rates, so winding them down more quickly — likely by early spring — will lessen some of the economic aid the Fed supplied after the pandemic erupted last year.
Fed officials are also expected to forecast that they will raise their benchmark short-term rate, which has been pegged near zero since March 2020, two or three times next year. Rate hikes would, in turn, increase a wide range of borrowing costs, including for mortgages, credit cards and some business loans. Just three months ago, the Fed had penciled in barely one rate increase in 2022.
Let’s note where the mortgage rates are today:
Some of the Fed hike might already be priced in, but these rates are still very attractive. I think that any rate starting with a 3 will be attractive to buyers.
But let’s consider the history. Any time rates threaten to go up, or actually do start to rise, it causes buyers to hurry up and find a house – just to be able to lock in a lower rate. It means that we could be heading for the Ultra-Peak Frenzy, where rising rates actually create MORE frenzy!
Buyers who think sellers should lower their price to compensate for higher rates will be in for a long wait. Sellers won’t believe it, and unless they are desperate (which very few are), they will blame the market/rates/agent before considering a lower price. Many will try over and over again, and it might take them 2-3 selling seasons before they succumb.
Would rising rates cause more sellers to hurry up? Doubtful, but I hope so! It would be great just to get back to normal inventory (which is about double where it has been during the last half of 2021).
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 15, 2021 | Local Flavor |
HUGE THANK YOU to everyone who joined us in giving back this year through Mama’s Pies! Our team raised over $2,300, which allows Mama’s Kitchen to prepare, make, and deliver over 900 meals to those in need in San Diego!
https://www.mamaskitchen.org/events/mamaspies/
Hello, Mama’s Pies Sellers!
I hope this email finds you and your loved ones well and that everyone was able to enjoy a Happy Thanksgiving.
Thank you for your patience as we finalized our calculations to the Mama’s Pies Thanksgiving Bake Sale numbers, and to just say THANK YOU for all your support!
Here’s a breakdown of the impact that each of you made in raising funds for our critically ill neighbors:
# of pies sold: 2,925
# of Holiday Feasts donated: 1,005
General donations: $26,572
Sponsorship: $29,000
Total Raised: $169,247
This has been our most successful Mama’s Pies yet! CONGRATULATIONS for making this happen!
We sold out of pies before sales ended which is remarkable considering the amount of pies we sold, which is also a record-breaking number! Thank you all for your time and dedication to our community members.
Congratulations to the top ten Teams and Individual Sellers!
Individuals:
- Kelly Sherlock (Mama’s Kitchen Director of Administration and Finance)
- Adam Ritch (General Manager, WorldMark Mission Valley Resort)
- Scott Walls (Mama’s Kitchen Board President)
- KariLorraine Scott
- Cheli Mohamed
- Patricia Pasquill
- Andrew Rosenberg
- Leo Meltvedt/Chiropractic Life Center
- Michelle and Lisa Burkart
- Steve Carnes
Teams
- True Chiropractic
- Jack in the Box
- Neda Nourani and Associates at Compass
- Qualcomm Black Inclusion Group
- The Kube Team/Fairway Mortgage
- ScrippsAssists at Scripps Research
- Candis Kolb and Associates at Compass
- Klinge Realty Group
- Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health at UC San Diego
- Team SAIC
Our top three individual and team sellers will receive a small token of our appreciation.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 14, 2021 | 2021, 2022, Jim's Take on the Market, Why You Should List With Jim |
Geez, Jim, you sure are optimistic about 2022 sales and pricing. How come?
I mentioned a couple of sales in last week’s video, and here is other evidence:
When this house in Carmel Valley hit the open market, there was a model-match with pool located a block away that had just listed for $1,899,000. This house listed for $1,995,000 and was at the end of the culdesac so it had the big pie-shaped lot:
https://www.compass.com/listing/12893-ralston-circle-san-diego-ca-92130/921928562713599849/
We offered $2,150,000 with 30% down payment, 21-day escrow and waived the appraisal – and lost. They received 14 offers, and they only countered the ‘serious’ ones.
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The last two sales of this model were $2,700,000 and $2,760,000 in July, and all three were listed by the same agent (one was her own house). So her list price of $3,198,000 on Thanksgiving weekend seems a bit aggressive, but it looked nice:
https://www.compass.com/listing/3566-calle-palmito-carlsbad-ca-92009/922551469697457585/
Showing appointments were scheduled for Saturday and Sunday…..but they took an offer on Saturday, and cancelled the Sunday showings!
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We offered $1,050,000 and 21-day escrow for this fixer on a canyon in Clairemont that listed for $995,000. We got boxed out on this one too – no counter-offer or bidding war. They accepted $1,100,000:
https://www.compass.com/listing/4012-mt-brundage-avenue-san-diego-ca-92111/913237322679108673/
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Here are a few others that have closed in December:
This is a half-acre lot, but $1,710,000 is a boatload of money for Calavera Hills in NE Carlsbad:
https://www.compass.com/listing/3803-crownpoint-court-carlsbad-ca-92010/910821249707960161/
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This was a fixer built in 1986 on an acre in Olivenhain sold for 43.5% OVER THE LIST PRICE:
https://www.compass.com/listing/1256-rancho-encinitas-drive-encinitas-ca-92024/905698553849537033/
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I could list these separately, but they look better together – all selling for big pops over their list prices:
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This sold for $590,000 OVER THE LIST PRICE:
https://www.compass.com/listing/5646-chelsea-avenue-la-jolla-ca-92037/918937162309409297/
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The biggest reason why the frenzy should continue in 2022 is because those who have lost out on properties in 2021 will be even more determined next year – and be your competition.
Get Good Help!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 13, 2021 | 2022, Auctions
Word on the street is that Lennar may attempt to sell their new San Marcos homes by utilizing the auction format. They don’t have anything on their website yet, and it may be a bit clumsy to roll out so we may not hear much about it until they complete a few.
They have 700+ people on their interest list, and they have grouped them into sets of 25. Why discriminate? Let all 700+ people have a crack at buying every house!
Hopefully the selling of homes by auctions will become more popular in 2022!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 13, 2021 | 2022, Frenzy, Inventory
Are you looking ahead to the Frenzy of 2022?
It’s looking a little somber right now.
Buyers will be scouring the market early, in hopes of getting a fast start in January.
But we only have 43% of the active listings today that we had last year at this time, which means the sellers who list their home for sale over the next 30-45 days will have the market to themselves.
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by Jim the Realtor | Dec 12, 2021 | Sales and Price Check |
The craziest year on record is wrapping up – how does 2021 compare?
San Diego County Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Annual
| Year |
# of Listings |
# of Sales |
Median Sales Price |
Listings/Sales |
| 2013 |
33,948 |
25,495 |
$455,000 |
1.33 |
| 2014 |
35,254 |
22,896 |
$495,000 |
1.54 |
| 2015 |
33,376 |
24,951 |
$525,000 |
1.42 |
| 2016 |
35,869 |
25,295 |
$556,000 |
1.42 |
| 2017 |
33,537 |
25,038 |
$600,000 |
1.34 |
| 2018 |
35,658 |
22,525 |
$636,000 |
1.58 |
| 2019 |
33,307 |
23,214 |
$648,000 |
1.43 |
| 2020 |
29,492 |
23,882 |
$715,000 |
1.23 |
| 2021 YTD |
27,699 |
23,705 |
$840,950 |
1.17 |
The median sales price is 18% higher YoY, and in spite of having about 20% fewer listings than normal, sales have held up – because virtually everything is selling!
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Annual
| Year |
# of Listings |
# of Sales |
Median Sales Price |
Listings/Sales |
| 2013 |
4,911 |
3,287 |
$950,000 |
1.49 |
| 2014 |
4,794 |
2,899 |
$1,020,000 |
1.65 |
| 2015 |
5,066 |
3,096 |
$1,090,000 |
1.64 |
| 2016 |
5,178 |
3,107 |
$1,160,000 |
1.67 |
| 2017 |
4,637 |
3,082 |
$1,225,000 |
1.50 |
| 2018 |
4,840 |
2,799 |
$1,325,000 |
1.73 |
| 2019 |
4,741 |
2,827 |
$1,327,500 |
1.68 |
| 2020 |
4,494 |
3,184 |
$1,481,250 |
1.41 |
| 2021 YTD |
3,533 |
3,062 |
$1,899,000 |
1.15 |
The NSDCC median sales price increased by 28% YoY, and in spite of having about 27% fewer listings than normal, sales will probably get close to the 2013 total!
The record for most NSDCC sales was 3,929 in 2003, back when the median sales price was $732,500.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 11, 2021 | Rancho Santa Fe |
This Compass listing just closed escrow this week for $5,400,000:
Over 10,000 square feet of indoor and heated outdoor entertainment spaces, covered/heated loggias. Gated Estate with exceptional manicured grounds and rare dual bay motor coach villa/guest house. Renovated over the past 10 years, this thoughtful residence is designed with an Anglo Caribbean architectural style set on a cul-de-sac.
The main home features both a gourmet and full prep kitchen appointed with all high grade appliances and detail, perfect for servicing large events. Upgraded elevator, multiple ensuite bedrooms and a generous master bedroom/bathroom suite with large balcony w/spa, dual walk in closets, crystal chandeliers, and steam shower. Full outdoor kitchen set under the covered loggia with views of the grounds and living pond, Well prepared for indoor and outdoor events, the spectacular single level guest house with full kitchen and wine storage also includes two generous en-suite bedrooms. A gated motor court with limo-depth 4 car garage and room for boats/trailers.
For the car or RV enthusiast the motor coach villa could be an indoor sports court as well, home has large solar system and pool solar system with plenty of storage. A rare compound set on a flat 1.51 acre lot, a mature botanical garden of specimen palms, citrus, fruit and other rare tropical plants.
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 11, 2021 | 2022, Forecasts |
The folks at realtor.com think the San Diego-Carlsbad market will appreciate 4.8% next year. We’ll do that much in the first quarter! They expect inventory to rebound, and our sales to increase 0.2%.
The run on home prices is almost over.
At least that’s what economists at Realtor.com are projecting.
The real estate listing site, which is owned by News Corp, forecasts median existing home sales prices will rise 2.9% over the coming 12 months.
That would mark a substantial slowdown from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index’s latest reading of year-over-year U.S. home price growth (up 19.5% between September 2020 and the same month this year). If Realtor.com’s projection comes to fruition, it would also be the slowest 12-month rate of price growth since 2012.
No, this wouldn’t be a housing correction or crash. However, slower price growth would provide buyers a bit of breathing room. Less bidding. More time to search for homes. And maybe even a chance for some buyers to finally save up for a down payment.
“After years of declining, the inventory of homes for sale is finally expected to rebound from all-time lows…Homebuyers will have a better chance to find a home in 2022, but fierce competition and affordability continue to be a challenge,” wrote Realtor.com researchers in their outlook.
Their survey indicated that more people are planning to sell, so that’s good – though our coastal region is dominated by baby boomers, so we might not be as lucky as others:
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 10, 2021 | Carlsbad, Local Flavor |
16-month investigation and $500,000?
Heck, just follow my red line, and add some houses while you’re at it!
CARLSBAD — The city is preparing for sea-level rise by partnering with a prominent local research organization to perform a realignment study on a portion of Carlsbad Boulevard to help mitigate any future structural damage due to climate change.
The South Carlsbad Boulevard Climate Adaptation Project marks the first major review of the city’s infrastructure in relation to sea-level rise, according to Mike Grim, the city’s senior program manager.
The study is expected to take about 16 months and return to the council in Feb. 2023, according to Grim.
“It’s doing a little more detailed analysis of bluff erosion and flooding impacts would be due to sea-level rise or extreme storms,” Grim said. “And then analyzing the realignment of the boulevard and then what to do with that intervening space. We are going to move that as far east as we can.”
The Carlsbad City Council approved a $498,075 grant during its Sept. 14 meeting from the California State Coastal Conservancy for Scripps Institute of Oceanography to conduct studies on sea-level rise and how to move the road’s southbound lane eastward, away from the ocean, between Palomar Airport Road and Island Way.
The city will begin its public outreach to residents and businesses in January.
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