San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Dec.

San Diego had the fifth highest year-over-year gain in 2021, behind metros with much lower price points (Phoenix, Tampa, Miami, and Dallas).

Our month-over-month gain in December was #1 nationwide (tied with Miami).

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%

The experts have run out of superlatives, and roll out the same old explanations to describe the uptick in December – which was really the third month of the ramp-up into 2022:

Home prices rose 18.8% in 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, the biggest increase in 34 years of data and substantially ahead of 2020’s 10.4% gain.

All regions saw price gains last year, but were strongest in the South and the Southeast, each up over 25%. Phoenix, Tampa and Miami reported the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in the index in December. Phoenix led the way for the 31st consecutive month with prices in December 32.5% over the year before. It was followed by Tampa with a 29.4% increase, and Miami with a 27.3% increase.

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level,” said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “All 20 cities saw price increases in 2021, and prices in all 20 are at their all-time highs.”

Over the past several months home prices have been rising at very high, but decelerating rates, said Lazzara. But that deceleration paused in December.

Lazzara said that strength in the US housing market is being driven in part by a change in location preferences as households react to the pandemic.

A persistent low inventory of homes dropped to record low levels in December, according to the National Association of Realtors. In the face of continued strong demand, prices were pushed higher. Newly constructed homes are in the pipeline, but a long-running shortage in supply combined with the lingering effects of the pandemic mean it will take years to meet demand.

“More data will be required to understand whether this demand surge simply represents an acceleration of purchases that would have occurred over the next several years rather than a more permanent secular change,” Lazzara said. “In the short term, we should soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”

Mortgage rates, which had risen only gradually since August, began to abruptly climb in late December closing in on the 4% threshold for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

“Home prices continued to surpass expectations in December, but a marked change may be ahead for growth as rising mortgage rates eat into homebuyer purchasing power,” said Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s chief economist. “While typical asking prices continue to accelerate, the pace of median sales price growth has slowed, signaling a potential gap between what buyers are willing and able to pay and what sellers are hoping to net.

Higher mortgage rates have added more than $200 to the monthly cost of a typical for-sale home since December 2020 — when rates were at all-time lows — with more than half of that increase occurring over the past eight weeks, Hale said.

“With home prices expected to continue rising, even at a slower pace, affordability will increasingly challenge 2022 buyers as a decade-long underbuilding trend has left the housing market 5.8 million homes short of household growth,” said Hale. “At the same time, we expect pandemic trends like workplace flexibility and competitive labor market conditions to give workers the boost in income and wider search areas they need to navigate a still-challenging housing market successfully.”

Southern Arizona

I’ve been hoping to promote the best areas in nearby states for readers to consider for relocations, and have wanted to feature lower-priced homes in order to make the move really worth it.

Yesterday I spoke with Bill Ims, a former Carlsbad realtor and probably the nicest guy in the business. He and his wife moved to Green Valley, Arizona, and love it!

He has been selling homes there, and his latest listing is on the golf course for only $370,000!

https://www.coldwellbanker.com/property/1324-N-Paseo-de-Golf-Green-Valley-AZ-85614/120312733/detail

Green Valley is 20 miles south of Tucson and an easy drive from San Diego – tell him I sent you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Valley,_Arizona

 

Country Living!

Check out our new listing that is priced at $251/sf!

39221 Daily Rd., Fallbrook, CA 92028

4 br + den/2.5 ba, 3,963sf

YB: 1991

5.14 acres

LP = $995,000

The perfect home of the future – get out of the rat race and enjoy fine country living in this gorgeous home bathed in natural light with panoramic views in every direction! Huge bedrooms, walk-in closets, hardwood floors, 2 fireplaces, and gourmet kitchen with chef’s island and extra-large pantry. Valencia orange trees and lemons too. For those working from home, it has exceptional internet access! Thinking of buying a home for your kids or an ideal rental property? This could be for you! Bring the RVs, toys, trailers, etc.

Open 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39221-Daily-Rd-Fallbrook-CA-92028/139741051_zpid/

Today’s Buyers Have Excellent Credit

Thoughts:

  1. If there is anyone left who thinks the bubble will burst and prices will come down substantially, let’s note that it would take a multitude of people with excellent credit scores and what was once a big down payment to give those up.  The vast majority of today’s buyers have outstanding credit – it would take a disaster for them to walk away.
  2. Agents used to tout how great their buyer’s credit score was – but today it’s expected.
  3. We don’t need alternative financing any more. Those who don’t qualify are left out of the game instead.

Fire Insurance Non-Renewals

The WSJ recently highlighted the fire-insurance problems in California – excerpts:

Worried about wildfire exposure and frustrated by state regulations, insurers in California have been cutting back on their homeowner businesses. Now, affluent homeowners are feeling more of the pain, as two of the biggest firms offering protection for multimillion-dollar properties end coverage for some customers.

As early as this month, American International Group Inc. will begin notifying about 9,000 customers in its Private Client Group that their home policies won’t be renewed this year. The change is part of a plan by AIG to cease selling home policies in California through a unit regulated by the state’s insurance department.

AIG told insurance brokers in an email late last year that some policyholders instead may be eligible for coverage via another AIG unit. The other unit operates alongside other so-called excess-and-surplus lines insurers, which have more freedom on policies’ rates and terms than do insurers in the broader, tightly overseen home-insurance market.

The policies could cost three to five times what AIG’s clients now pay, with less-generous coverage, brokers said.

“AIG is the first high-net-worth carrier to say ‘we’ve had it, we’re divorcing ourselves from California’s regulated market,’ ” said Jim Tolliver, an insurance broker in San Francisco with Woodruff Sawyer & Co., who fears others will follow suit.

Chubb Ltd. the biggest high-end insurer in the state, is continuing to non-renew some policies. But, “we are still accepting new customers across the state in areas where we have a fair chance of earning an adequate return,” Paul Krump, a Chubb vice chairman, said last week.

In an earnings call in October, Chubb Chief Executive Evan Greenberg said the insurer’s California shrinkage was “not a small amount” in locations “both highly exposed and even moderately exposed to wildfire.” He said “someone else will have the pleasure of writing” business for which “we cannot charge an adequate price for the risk.”

Chubb, which declined to provide policyholder figures, aims to offer excess-and-surplus policies to many policyholders who aren’t renewed.

The moves by AIG and Chubb follow years of non-renewals by mass-market insurers. California regulators have been encouraged that parts of the broader market are showing signs of stabilizing, thanks to recent rate increases. Allstate Corp. , Farmers Insurance and some others have committed to adding policyholders.

Some insurers are frustrated that California regulators require them to set home-insurance rates based on their historical loss experience, not projections of future losses that are determined by catastrophe modeling. Such models can reflect detailed, location-specific data that the insurers feel they need amid escalating wildfire activity tied partly to climate change.

Jerry Ryan asked our insurance expert, Suzanne Canfield, for her thoughts:

If your home is near any sort of brush, forget about finding insurance with a preferred-market carrier. The areas affected in San Diego are Rancho Santa Fe, Carmel Valley, Fallbrook, Escondido, La Mesa, Alpine etc. The Los Angeles area is extremely difficult. I work for an independent brokerage firm and almost all of our preferred markets will deny writing business in such areas. I have to refer many markets to State Farm who continues to write homes in these areas until they are too saturated. Or the other options is finding a non admitted insurance solution who’s rates and filings are not implemented by the state, coverage is lacking and premiums are much higher. If you cannot get a quote form a non admitted carrier, the CA Fair Plan is the last resort and they are capped at a total insurance value of only $3 million.

How about people that have property next to canyons?

Don’t be surprised if they receive a notice of non-renewal due to a change in underwriting that the company has taken to mitigate fire losses on that particular area. Many of clients are either being non-renewed for this very reason or the company is choosing to pull out of CA completely. These companies are AIG which specializes in insuring million dollar homes and Nationwide Private Client. AIG and CHUBB insure many celebrities in the Hollywood hills and throughout LA. Trust me, insurance companies don’t have favorites either. Word is that Oprah’s home is getting non-renewed by either CHUBB or AIG.

Is there a map on “highly impacted fire areas” similar to flood plains?

Not that I am aware of. Nowadays companies use google maps and other tools to view homes. And if there are any adjacent canyons or open space, they consider it a fire prone are.

Can new owners in affected areas get fire insurance?

Yes through the CA Fair Plan. The CAFP only covers the home for Fire and Vandalism. Whereas a typical homeowners policy includes liability and water damage. In conjunction with the CAFP policy, homeowners must purchase what’s called a wrap around policy or difference in conditions policy to supplement it.

How much are premiums rising, with rising home equity?

Premiums are rising based on where you live. If you live in an area near brush, expect your premium to rise at minimum 10% but more often I see 20% and I have seem premiums double. Insurance companies choose to take more and more rate to make up for all of the wildfire claims paid out over the last several years. And it’s going to continue to get worse before it gets better.

Need insurance? Contact Suzanne at: suzanne.canfield@hubinternational.com

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