Buyer-Agents’ Pay

The MLS company in Washington state is looking to help with the transition of how buyer-agents get paid.  I’m not sure the agents appreciate it though!  Could this help sellers see that paying a bounty to buyer-agents would incentivize a sale?

The NWMLS, with its 32,000 subscribers, is changing “its rules and its transaction forms in a bid to boost transparency regarding agent compensation, offer buyers and sellers more options regarding compensation, and encourage innovation in brokerage models.”

That means that “when offered, compensation to the buyer broker will come from the seller directly” rather than the longstanding policy of the listing broker sharing a portion of the commission back with the buyer broker. The changes go into effect on October 3rd.

After that date, NWMLS’s new residential purchase and sale agreement will specify “that the seller may offer no compensation to the buyer brokerage firm, may offer additional compensation in order to meet the buyer’s obligation per a buyer representation agreement, may offer a credit to the buyer, may reduce the compensation offered in the listing, or may offer an alternative to either of those options.”

NSDCC July Sales, Preliminary

There will be a few more late-reporters, but it looks like this year’s July sales will be about half of what they were last year:

NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad) July Sales

Year
Number of Detached-Home Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2016
273
$1,100,000
45
2017
260
$1,243,250
19
2018
271
$1,280,000
27
2019
281
$1,300,000
22
2020
351
$1,423,350
17
2021
312
$1,852,500
12
2022
150
$2,268,500
16

The median sales price was 3% lower than it was in June, but 22% higher than it was last July. A median-priced anything doesn’t give us specific data – it’s only a vague trendline – but it suggests that the higher-priced homes are having more of a struggle finding a buyer.

The declining number of sales does tell us that most sellers are holding out on price (there are 463 active listings with a median list price of $2,999,000).  If they are going to sell this year, they need to adjust their price in the next week or two!

I’ll keep this photo handy!

Carlsbad Beach Home

This sold for $4,488,000 after 76 days on the market, which was $400,000 under the original list price (and $100,000 under the list price at time of sale). It is the second highest-priced sale ever of an attached home on the beach in Carlsbad!

NSDCC Summer Update

The July stats have been updated on these interactive graphs of the 92009 (SE Carlsbad), 92024 (Encinitas), and 92130 (Carmel Valley) markets:

We hear how the inventory has exploded, but compare it to history:

Sales during the 2022 selling season have been similar to February/March numbers:

It’s good to see the insane-bidding-over-the-list-price has slowed:

We’ve pulled forward about ten years’ worth of appreciation – sellers will be reluctant to give it back:

Inventory Watch

Even if there was a concerted effort to inform the public that mortgage rates are in the 4s (with jumbos in the mid-4s!), it is probably too late in the season to revive much enthusiasm with home buyers.

But there are still people in the hunt. Last week’s count of new pendings was 20, and this week it was 35!

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(more…)

Realistic Post-Frenzy Pricing

The 3,743sf active listing across the street has been listed for sale at $2,350,000 since June 10th – but still unsold. Next door to it was a 4,398sf sale that closed on June 21st for $2,385,000 (it was a rental and needed work). It was on the market for 28 days before they found their buyer.

We are at the end of summer and while my 4,000sf listing is spectacular, we didn’t want to risk joining the other 17 houses for sale between $2 million and $3 million in this zip code that have an average market time of 34 days – they are starting to stack up! This is my logical reasoning to predict a price that will work. I’d like to help you too – my phone is 858-997-3801.

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To demonstrate the quirkiness in the marketplace, there was also a guy who came by the open house said, “I’d buy this house if it weren’t for the power lines”:

They are at least a 1/4 mile away and beyond the houses in this photo. To me, they blend into the landscape, but if any power lines are a deal-killer or you’re just looking for any reason NOT to buy, then…..

La Costa Oaks Stunner – Pending!

Now that buyers are being more cautious, we’ve seen how important it is now for sellers to spruce up their home and list for an attractive price.  A third component is to not think that there are two in the bush that are going to offer hundreds of thousands over the list price – it’s already been priced in.

We received an offer on our new listing on Friday, and went ahead with open house to give any motivated buyers a chance to check it out.  If you’re motivated (i.e., willing to pay at least full price), you’ll come to the first open house.

Here’s what happened:

When your ship comes in, don’t be at the train station!

Village Park Testimonial

Thank you Natalie for correcting me on yesterday’s blog post – the second half of 2022 is well under way!  Sales won’t drop to zero over the next five months because people need to buy and sell, and hopefully all will be more diligent about the process and who they hire.

Here’s the story/ad-copy about our listing on Park Dale in Encinitas:

There haven’t been many Village Park condos on the market this year, so when our clients thought about selling theirs, they talked to a few agents to get quotes. One was $675,000!

So when they heard Jim say ‘mid-$800,000s’, it piqued their interest – why so much higher? Because we knew that a minor tune-up (cost of $15,000) would elevate the property into the preferred category of Move-In Ready and maximize the number of buyers.

We listed for $849,000, and sold it for $841,000 with a 21-day escrow!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/1938-park-dale-lane-encinitas-ca-92024/1079135454154740505

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The seller did not know us previously – here’s what he said about the experience:

You performed pure magic in selling our Encinitas condo near list price as we are potentially on the verge of severe economic times.  Throughout the selling experience, we have appreciated your professionalism, considerable knowledge and experience in selling real property.  It was a smooth and largely stress-free experience.  We will certainly refer any friends to you who are considering selling their property.

Are you thinking of moving? We’d love to help you too!

The Transition

We are into the second half of 2022. Where do we go from here?

Things we can expect:

  1. Sales are dropping and will likely be lower for 1-3 years.
  2. Mortgage rates aren’t going back to 3%…..but they might hang around in the 4s.
  3. Until the capital-gains tax is drastically reduced, long-timers want to stay put.
  4. San Diego is a desirable destination for affluent downsizers.
  5. Our home prices look attractive to affluent downsizers.
  6. Leaving San Diego is less appealing, due to rising home prices elsewhere.
  7. A slower pace might encourage sales and keep buyers engaged.
  8. Rents can go up by 10% starting August 1st.
  9. The media, especially social media, is a negative influence.
  10. There is game-changing commotion within the industry.

Let’s tackle these and other topics as we get closer to 2023 – I’ve created a new blog-post category today conveniently entitled, ‘2023’ at the top of this page.

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The article below confirms that:

  1. San Diego is NOT in the Top 10 places that people want to leave,
  2. Half of the places people are leaving are more expensive than here, and
  3. We ARE in the Top 10 destinations of where people want to move:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/24/redfin-homebuyers-want-to-leave-san-francisco-los-angeles-new-york.html

If you were an affluent downsizer looking at those ten choices, which would you select?  It also means that the North San Diego County coastal market will probably be dependent upon those buyers coming from more-expensive areas – and that those markets continue to hold up there.

We will find a way to survive the next six months, and by the 2023 Selling Season we should see a healthy increase in supply and demand.  The worst thing that will happen is that pricing might be lower, which buyers won’t mind.

Get Good Help!

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Another good day for rates – from midday Friday, July 29th:

 

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