Inventory Watch

The 10-year yield has dropped 0.5% since Thursday, which means today’s mortgage rates will probably be the low point of the rest of the year. If the CPI comes out hot tomorrow, the mortgage-rate market will shrug off the banking collapse and get back to rising.

Call it a one-day reprieve!

Buyers usually need to have a property under contract to lock their rate. If you have a lender who allows you to ‘lock and shop’, then today would be a good day to lock (hoping that a few lenders reflect the lower bond yields in their mortgage rates today).

NSDCC Actives & Pendings History, Mid-March:

March 11, 2019: 870 Actives, 284 Pendings

March 16, 2020: 698 Actives, 329 Pendings

March 15, 2021: 332 Actives, 333 Pendings

March 14, 2022: 195 Actives, 196 Pendings

March 13, 2023: 274 Actives, 154 Pendings

Plenty of room for more listings!

(more…)

Tiny Fest 2023

I still think that there would be high demand for decent-quality tiny homes around $50,000. Of course, all of these guys have options at $100,000+, but I caught a few lower-priced models today:

SW Carlsbad Big Ocean View

The minute I saw this address I knew that it would have a big ocean view because I sold one in here before. It turns out, I sold this very home in 2001 for $257,000 when it was all-original (I rep’d the seller then). It has since sold for $461,000 in 2005, $429,000 in 2014, $613,000 in 2018, and $979,000 on Thursday.

My buyer is out-of-state and made the offer based on this video – and came for the home inspection:

Sweeping Ocean View

The minute I saw this address I knew that it would have a big ocean view because I sold one in here before. It turns out, I sold this very home in 2001 for $257,000 when it was all-original (I rep’d the seller then). It has since sold for $461,000 in 2005, $429,000 in 2014, $613,000 in 2018, and $979,000 on Thursday.

My buyer is out-of-state and made the offer based on this video – and then came for the home inspection:

Bond Rally


Mortgage rates improving 0.24% in one day is extremely unusual!

In a matter of 48 hours, Silicon Valley Bank has gone from being a company that we’ve never heard about or discussed to the highest profile bank failure since the Great Financial Crisis.

Such developments sound like they should be good for bonds and today was no exception. The news certainly overshadowed today’s jobs report although traders also looked willing to take that in stride (higher headline job creation offset by lower wage growth and higher unemployment).

The net effect was the largest rally in 4 months and one of the 5 biggest rallies of the past decade–at least for Treasuries.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-03102023

Compass Local Stats

For a company that has been in San Diego for barely five years, Compass has done pretty well. We’ve been #1 since 2019, and in 2020 the volume was $2.13B with 2,372 units – big improvement since!

The agent productivity is around 3-4 annual sales per agent for all companies.  But there are many licensees working on teams who are on salary so it’s not that bleak. But it is getting harder to find agents who are closing one sale per month, which makes it tougher for them to keep their chops up.

$176,000 Over List

This looks like a miracle in the post-frenzy era, so how do you use it for a logical comp? This is a cautionary tale for the buyers looking at the house for sale up the street. It will be likely that someone will see my high sale closed and just go grab the other one without much thought as to the actual value.

And this was Buyer #2, after the cash buyer blew out after two days.

I mis-spoke about the original list price. It was $1,600,000

Biden Proposes 1031 Mods

President Biden’s budget was released today, and it includes modifying the IRS Code 1031 tax-deferred exchanges.  His current version probably has no chance of passing as-is:

The proposal would allow the deferral of gains up to an aggregate amount of $500,000 for each taxpayer ($1 million in the case of married individuals filing a joint return) each year for real property exchanges that are like-kind. Any gains from like-kind exchanges in excess of $500,000 (or $1 million in the case of married individuals filing a joint return) a year would be recognized by the taxpayer in the year the taxpayer transfers the real property subject to the exchange.

But limits on net profit would encourage investors to sell their properties more often, which would create more inventory – when there aren’t many other ways to encourage selling.  Want to avoid capital-gains tax on your primary residence? Move every time you reach the $500,000 limit on net profits!

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/26/what-bidens-proposed-1031-exchange-limits-mean-for-investors-economy.html

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