New Blog Host (Again)

If you see any messages like this one above, please send it to me. I never have ‘scheduled maintenance’ going on – it can only be a problem with the company that hosts this blog. Thanks!

I have changed blog hosts again, so hopefully there won’t be a problem and everything runs smoothly.

The only question left is whether I should delete most of the 11,871 blog posts to improve performance. I have copied the entire blog so Natalie can go back and write a book some day, so this week we’re going to trim the number of blog posts down to 1,000 or less.

If you’re having trouble sleeping, they are all (poorly) indexed here for now!

Stale Factor

I think most agents would agree that once their new listing has been on the open market – and unsold – for two weeks, the action dies down considerably.

Then the showings, if any, become vague and laborious because all of the motivated buyers have already seen it and passed. All that’s left is the occasional newcomer to the game who just begun their journey of learning the market. Or it’s a buyer-agent who is using this listing to set up the showing, and selling, of the better-priced home down the street or around the corner.

It’s made worse by the lack of quality buyer-agents. The older agents can’t keep up any more, and they have been retired – whether they know it yet or not. The kids don’t have enough experience or training.

The marketplace has been reduced to a single sentence. “Do you have any questions?”

The buyer’s answer is almost always the same…..”No”, and off they go.

The only thing left to wonder is whether there will be any negative impact from unsold listings stacking up everywhere. Will it bother the buyers who are still engaged?

Will they forget all about them, or come back later and lowball them?

Because lowballing is such a forgotten sport, I’ll guess that we will just get used to unsold listings laying around. Rancho Santa Fe is slowly getting back to its pre-covid norms of having a 10:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings (78:12 today), and it doesn’t appear to bother anyone. It’s accepted.

Because I feel the need to analyze everything, I’m going to institute a new gauge today and follow it over time to see the impact.

It looked like we were going to have 400 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad by the end of February. We haven’t quite hit it yet (though if you count the off-market listings, we’re well over 400 today).

Let’s call the new gauge the Stale Factor:

NSDCC Active Listings: 391

NSDCC Active Listings with 15+ days-on-market: 281

We have 281/391 = 72% of the active listings have been on the open market for more than two weeks.

It seems like a lot, doesn’t it?

Let’s see if the spring selling season starts picking up and the percentage goes down…or not.

Over List, February

A nice pop in the percentage of sales closing over their list price – much like last February.

Last year, the peak month was March, and then it dropped in half by summertime.

NSDCC Monthly Sales & Pricing

Sales last month didn’t get close to last February, but the pricing held up. It wasn’t because there weren’t the houses to buy – the inventory was higher YoY.

It’s because fewer homes for sale were worthy of purchase.

Here was the big winner that sold for 40% OVER THE LIST PRICE. The buyer was from Mountain View, CA:

https://www.compass.com/listing/2223-calle-guaymas-la-jolla-ca-92037/1759448383857096161/

Other examples:

Off-Market Sales, 2025

It’s a hot topic among real estate agents, but how widespread are the off-market sales?

We saw that in the last blog post that 155 NSDCC homes that have gone pending this year have already closed escrow. But let’s back it up to get a bigger sample and look at all of the 257 NSDCC sales in 2025 – including those that went pending last year.

Of the 257 sales, only 21 of them were sold off market, or 8% of the total number of sales.

Of the 21, only EIGHT were Compass listings. We’re not the only one!

Here is the crazy stat: Of the 21 off-market sales, TEN were sold to an outside brokerage!

It’s going to be rare when an agent takes a listing and just happens to have a buyer for it. Some of these double-enders are going to be the reverse – when an agent has a buyer and solicits sellers in the buyers’ desired area and gets lucky to find a deal. Most agents will input that sale as representing both parties even if they didn’t have a formal listing agreement with the seller – which is supposed to be required for MLS input (nobody checks them).

When representing a seller, I’m still not a fan of doing an off-market sale.

The only one we did was a year ago when the sellers agreed with me that this price may never happen again because it was based on another off-market pending sale of the same model (we closed first):

I wouldn’t want to be trying to sell for $2,175,000 in there today!

While there may be an occasional good reason to sell off-market, it’s not a big segment of the total sales. Reffkin said yesterday that 94% of Compass listings sell from open-market exposure via the MLS, and that will probably continue.

But it’s a sexy topic!

The NAR/MLS rules are the problem. In the near future, Compass and other brokerages will likely break away from NAR/MLS restrictions and use our website to expose our listings to the market – and/or we make a deal to share our listings with a national entity like homes.com.

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