Inventory Watch

It looks like the tariff distractions might be behind us?

The number of pendings increased for the second week in a row, and the number of active listings actually declined! It might just be a break for Mother’s Day though, and there should be a steady increase of listings over the next few weeks – with only some of them selling.

Note: For those who review the stats below, know that I used the same $$/sf as last week for the high-end listings. The number was skewed by this listing, which I think has a mistake on price:

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Boomer Psycho-Babble

Meredith has been predicting the silver tsunami since 2023, but since it hasn’t happened (yet), she is now reversing course and is saying seniors are broke and can’t afford to move:

Baby boomers are dragging on the housing market because most can’t afford to move out of their homes, according to Meredith Whitney, the “Oracle of Wall Street” who predicted the Great Financial Crisis.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV on Wednesday, she said many cash-strapped Americans have been borrowing against their homes, and 44% of home-equity loans are being taken out by seniors, “which is counterintuitive. It’s crazy, right?”

That’s contrary to the typical narrative of baby boomers sitting on vast amounts of wealth accumulated over their lifetimes, which spanned unprecedented economic expansions and stock market booms.

As a result, seniors with a lot of money have an edge in the tight housing market, accounting for 42% of all homebuyers, while millennials account for 29% despite the younger generation being in the prime buying years.

But while most buyers are boomers, it doesn’t mean most boomers have a giant pile of cash.

“I divide it into different cohorts,” Whitney said. “So the senior which everyone thinks ‘the boomers have all this money’—that’s a small portion. Seniors are living paycheck to paycheck.”

To be sure, boomers collectively have $75 trillion of wealth. But that’s not distributed evenly, and Whitney estimated that just one in 10 seniors can afford assisted-living facilities.

As a result, many are forced to stay put and age in place, she added. (Stubbornly high mortgage rates also have created a “lock-in” effect where homeowners who got in the market when rates were low are now reluctant to buy a new home at today’s elevated borrowing costs.)

“This is one of the problems with the housing inventory,” Whitney told Bloomberg. “They’re staying in their houses longer because they can’t afford to move out.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/most-baby-boomers-t-afford-220048092.html

For Pete’s sake – seniors could afford to move if they just sell their house. The reason they don’t move is because they don’t want to leave town, which is the only way to make it worth moving.

The seniors that do move are getting closer to family, and in particular, closer to the grandkids. All the rest are staying until the end.

NSDCC Monthly Listings

With the unsold listings piling up everywhere, I went to check the stale factor (above) and was surprised to see that the ratio of the active listings on the market for 15+ days was actually lower than it was previously.

It must mean that there has been a flurry of new listings recently.

There have been 87 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which means we should be well on our way for 300+ for the month of May.

Here’s how 2025 compares with the last two years:

Because today’s home sellers are loaded with equity and are somewhat reluctant to leave San Diego unless they get all their money, the less-motivated sellers who sense that it’s a ‘bad time to sell’ are going to wait until 2026 to hit the market.

It should mean that the number of new listings won’t explode from here to December.

What about 2026?

There will probably be a bigger surge next year, caused by the larger group of 2025 leftovers plus those who waited. They won’t be a panic on price – they want their money – but the seller nervousness will cause them to start earlier.

The 1Q26 surge is going to be wild!

Happy Pope Day

It’s been well-documented here what a lucky guy I am, and here’s another.

In 2016, Natalie was studying abroad in Florence, and we went to visit.

Kayla had done her study abroad in Rome five years earlier, but we didn’t visit then. So we started our tour in Rome so she could show us around. Being good Catholics, we went to the Sistine Chapel, where usually the guards are adamant about not taking any photos.

But the day we were there, the guards were on strike!

They had a skeleton crew of staff at the door who were encouraging us to take as many photos as we wanted!

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Nestled

Of the 3,122 detached-home listings in San Diego County, 672 of them (22%) include the word ‘nestled’. It is followed closely by ‘dream’, which is in 19% of the listings.

If you don’t want to be replaced by robots, don’t be so robotic.

Today’s Home Sellers

According to Opendoor’s new First-Time Home Seller Report, the COVID-era buying spree is not only over, it is biting back.

The low-interest rate buying frenzy in 2020 and newfound flexibility with remote work led to a wave of regret – 79% of first-time home sellers admit they made mistakes, with 91% saying these errors played a major role in their decision to sell.

The biggest culprits?

  • Buying too fast
  • Misjudging long-term lifestyle fit
  • Underestimating maintenance costs
  • Assuming remote work was forever

These regrets could be fueling a shift away from the traditional “forever home” mentality. Once seen as the ultimate goal, it now feels unrealistic for many, especially with changing lifestyles and economic pressures. In fact, 68% of first-time home sellers no longer see it as attainable, and 81% are selling what they once thought would be their lifelong home.

Read full report here:

https://www.opendoor.com/articles/homeseller-report

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