by Jim the Realtor | May 26, 2015 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check
We’ve used the ratio of active-listings-to-pending-listings as a measure of the overall ‘health’ of the market, with a 2:1 ratio being about right. This is how it looked earlier this year, on February 23, 2015:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2015/02/23/north-sd-activespendings/
The overall Actives-to-Pendings ratio in February was 1.69 to 1.
It is the same 1.69:1 today!
Here are the current stats – areas with more pendings than actives are in bold:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
#2015 Solds |
Median SP |
Avg $/sf |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
16 |
11 |
31 |
$1,250,000 |
$644/sf |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
51 |
29 |
67 |
$755,000 |
$527/sf |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
121 |
93 |
189 |
$825,000 |
$323/sf |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
18 |
26 |
54 |
$642,500 |
$320/sf |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
39 |
38 |
77 |
$875,000 |
$364/sf |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
58 |
23 |
64 |
$1,582,000 |
$740/sf |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
91 |
68 |
180 |
$1,087,000 |
$458/sf |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
185 |
44 |
150 |
$1,817,500 |
$790/sf |
| RSF |
67+91 |
237 |
41 |
95 |
$2,550,000 |
$528/sf |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
15 |
11 |
39 |
$1,539,000 |
$682/sf |
| W. RB |
92127 |
161 |
90 |
211 |
$855,000 |
$326/sf |
| E. RB |
92128 |
62 |
85 |
200 |
$615,000 |
$326/sf |
| Rancho Pena |
92129 |
54
|
59 |
151 |
$673,500 |
$318/sf |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
116 |
80 |
154 |
$1,168,750 |
$400/sf |
| Scripps Rch |
92131 |
51 |
56 |
119 |
$778,500 |
$333/sf |
| All Above |
All |
1,273 |
754 |
1,781 |
$887,500 |
$472/sf |
Those with smaller sample sizes can vary wildly, yet most of these look fairly consistent. As usual, Carmel Valley is really rocking – the 80 pendings have an average list price of $1,265,778! Encinitas deserves recognition too for having 180 solds already this year with a median sales price of $1,087,000!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 26, 2015 | Actives/Pendings, Spring Kick
The month of March is wrapping up next week, and we’re heading into the Easter/Spring Break period. Local buyers who might take some time off will be offset by the out-of-towners coming in for a look.
The market seems very balanced currently, and our ‘market health’ gauge is supportive.
Historically, we’ve called it a healthy market when Active Listings-to-Pendings have been at a 2:1 ratio, and here’s the count today in North SD County’s coastal region:
Actives: 781
Pendings: 440
Ratio = 1:78:1
It’s the lower end of the market that is really hot. Of the 440 pendings, 71% of them are listed under $1,500,000.
Only 37% of the actives are priced under $1,500,000!
While there has been a steady flow of new pendings, I haven’t seen many that were a surprise. I think buyers are being patient, and are hoping that there will be better offerings later – much like sellers are hoping there will be higher-payers later.
Mortgage rates are holding steady too, which means April could be the month that those buyers and sellers who are in tip-toe mode come closer together!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 23, 2015 | Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal
How ‘cooking’ is it?
In NE Carlsbad, Solana Beach, East Rancho Bernardo, and Rancho Penasquitos there are more houses pending than active – that’s scorching hot.
Places where the Actives-to-Pendings are better than a 2:1 ratio are doing well.
Here are the stats in different areas:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
#2015 Solds |
Median SP |
Avg $/sf |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
18 |
13 |
6 |
$705,800 |
$609/sf |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
33 |
19 |
13 |
$770,000 |
$625/sf |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
75 |
53 |
49 |
$860,000 |
$310/sf |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
18 |
21 |
9 |
$660,000 |
$311/sf |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
34 |
27 |
20 |
$788,750 |
$362/sf |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
62 |
19 |
14 |
$1,370,000 |
$583/sf |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
91 |
59 |
42 |
$1,207,952 |
$463/sf |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
156 |
51 |
41 |
$1,835,000 |
$774/sf |
| RSF |
67+91 |
183 |
34 |
31 |
$2,700,000 |
$555/sf |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
16 |
25 |
8 |
$1,658,750 |
$816/sf |
| W. RB |
92127 |
113 |
76 |
51 |
$988,000 |
$329/sf |
| E. RB |
92128 |
65 |
70 |
39 |
$594,000 |
$325/sf |
| Rancho Pena |
92129 |
37 |
54 |
28 |
$660,000 |
$317/sf |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
84 |
54 |
28 |
$1,171,750 |
$394/sf |
| Scripps Rch |
92131 |
43 |
35 |
20 |
$856,000 |
$300/sf |
| All Above |
All |
1,028 |
610 |
402 |
$938,337 |
$439/sf |
We’re just getting started!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 15, 2015 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Jim's Take on the Market
Back when we had a normal market, it was considered ‘balanced’ or ‘healthy’ to have a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings. Now that the Fed’s QE is over, and mortgages are slightly easier to get, today’s environment is probably as close to normal as we’re going to get.
How are we doing?
With jumbo rates breaking records daily, there’s no surprise that the lower-end of NSDCC is scorching hot – and would be hotter if there were more decent houses for sale:
| NSDCC House List Prices |
Actives |
Pendings |
A/P Ratio |
Median DOM |
| Under-$1,500,000 |
290 |
170 |
1.71:1 |
31 |
| Over-$1,500,000 |
432 |
83 |
5.20:1 |
95 |
I think we can expect another full-out frenzy in the coming months – at least around those new lower-end listings that are within shouting range of the comps. You need an agent who can handle a bidding war – it is not a given!
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 18, 2014 | About Kayla, About the author, Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal
It was quite a day today, but hey, they’re all great days! I think we are as busy as we’ve been all year, and for one reason.
Logic and common sense are returning to the market.
They are being fueled by Zillow and Trulia, because they are providing a baseline – some place to start the investigation. Every person I meet has already looked at Zillow first!
Zillow is pouring it on too – they are spending $75 million this year on advertising! I hear them every day on sports talk radio, and with all their headlines, they have become the household name for real estate.
What’s next for consumers?
I hope the combined effect of higher prices, thin inventory, and low rates causes more people – both buyers and sellers – to use the tools, and be more methodical about their decisions. Work with agents who bring extra value – especially those who employ effective sales strategies.
When the frenzy was cooking, buyers just wanted to grab a house, and they fired at will.
Many of the prices paid didn’t have much relation to the easily-found comparable sales. But the gamble paid off – they are in, and have probably gained some equity.
But now that prices are up 20%, people are being more cautious and deliberate – which is a great sign for the future of the local market.
The logic setting in can be seen in our actitve-to-pending ratio:
NSDCC Detached-Homes (Carlsbad-La Jolla)
| Price Range |
Active Listings |
Pending Listings |
A/P Ratio |
| Under-$1M |
260 |
164 |
1.6:1 |
| Over-$1M |
886 |
195 |
4.5:1 |
Make no mistake – the lower end is still on fire. The higher-end folks tend to price their homes to sit. There are 323 houses for sale listed over $3,000,000, and the average market time is 153 days (eating up the entire selling season and still not sold).
But forget the statistics.
Today was monumental for many due to the first day of school – and we are no different. Kayla’s sister Natalie started her senior year of high school today, captain of the dance team and in charge of her destiny:
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 3, 2014 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 market has been red hot as of late. But its inventory count grew 7% this week, and pricing and square footage also faltered. We’ll call it noise for now, and check again next week:
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
| December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
| December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
| December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
| December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
| December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
| January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
| January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
| January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
| January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
| February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
| February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
| February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
| February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
| March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
| December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
| December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
| December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
| December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
| December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
| January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
| January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
| January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
| January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
| February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
| February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
| February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
| February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
| March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 19, 2014 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Tips, Advice & Links
In the previous video, Brandi mentioned that sellers enjoy a real urgency early in their listing period. Today’s market is a good example – because every decent buy gets snapped up right away, all new listings get immediate attention.
The North SD County coastal region has been hot up to around $1,400,000 – homes priced above that have a much different supply-and-demand curve.
Here are the current active and pending listings of NSDCC detached homes:
| Price Range |
# of ACT |
# of PEND |
A/P Ratio |
PEND Median DOM |
| UNDER $1.4M |
256 |
235 |
1.09 |
15 |
| OVER $1.4M |
527 |
106 |
4.97 |
52 |
On the lower end, literally half of the pendings found a buyer in the first 15 days on the market.
This dynamic can be used by both sellers and buyers. Sellers who price sharply from the beginning can help create a fever pitch, and have a bidding war push the sales price higher. Buyers who see homes on the market for more than 15 days know that something might be missing.
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 22, 2014 | Actives/Pendings, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check |
We’ve seen how our local market has been split, with the lower end being red hot, and the upper price range is, well, not hot. In talking to RSF agents yesterday, we agreed that the recent frenzy has yet to visit the Ranch.
Here are NSDCC active listings compared to those marked pending in the last 60 days (some of which have already sold).
| List Prices |
#Actives |
$$-per-sf |
#Pendings Last 60 Days |
$$-per-sf |
| Under $1.4M |
246 |
$430/sf |
225 |
$412/sf |
| Over $1.4M |
481 |
$874/sf |
109 |
$716/sf |
66% of the active listings are OVER $1,400,000, and 67% of the pendings are UNDER $1,400,000!
Statistically, the Under-$1.4 group looks very healthy, with almost 1:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings and only a 4% list-pricing gap between those pendings and not.
But the Over-$1.4 group is a mess, with almost 4x as many actives as pendings, and a 22% list-pricing gap between the actives and pendings!
They’re not going to give it away!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 19, 2013 | Actives/Pendings, Bubbleinfo TV, Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market
It’s probably just the holidays but there are a fair amount of the standard newer tract homes lying around these days. The average pricing is grouped fairly close together between active and sold listings – it appears that buyers are just being very selective at what they are willing to buy now:
Encinitas Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:
Active listings: 23 – with list prices averaging $366/sf
Pending listings: 9 – with list prices averaging $373/sf
Sold in last 90 days: 15 – at an average of $353/sf
Month’s supply: 4.6
Carlsbad Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:
Active listings: 25 – with list prices averaging $353/sf
Pending listings: 12 – with list prices averaging $327/sf
Sold in last 90 days: 24 – at an average of $305/sf
Month’s supply: 3.1
Carmel Valley Tract Houses Built since 1999 priced between $1M and $2M:
Active listings: 24 – with list prices averaging $388/sf
Pending listings: 14 – with list prices averaging $392/sf
Sold in last 90 days: 26 – at an average of $376/sf
Month’s supply: 2.8
The sky isn’t falling, but buyers aren’t jumping at everything. Here’s one that typifies – newer, larger, but with irritants: road noise, high fees, and smaller yard:
by Jim the Realtor | Jul 31, 2013 | Actives/Pendings, Inventory, Sales and Price Check, Short Sales, Short Selling |
Fannie Mae’s new requirement that all HAFA short sales to be active on the MLS for at least five days amounts to shutting the barn door after the horses have escaped:
On or after August 1, 2013, all properties being considered for a standard short sale/HAFA II must be listed with an active status on a multiple listing service (MLS) for a minimum of five consecutive calendar days, including one weekend (i.e., Saturday and Sunday).
Insisting that the property be active on the MLS is easy to get around – agents who want to scam the system just won’t answer their phone for five days.
Lenders been requiring that short-sale participants sign an affidavit promising that the transaction is a legitimate arm’s-length deal, and has had open-market exposure. But shady realtors will sign those too – let’s face it, unless there is enforcement, rules and regs are meaningless.
But short sales appear to be winding down anyway. With lenders not threatening to foreclose, why short-sale? Defaulters will just live for free.
Currently short sales are 3.2% of the inventory county-wide:
| SD Co. Det & Att Listings |
ACT |
CONT |
PEND |
| REOs |
135 |
33 |
114 |
| Short-sales |
204 |
1,808 |
622 |
| Non-REO/SS |
5,966 |
54 |
4,300 |
| Totals |
6,305 |
1,895 |
5,036 |
With only 204 short-sales on the market, hopefully it means we are getting closer to the end – though they will likely stay around for years as a quiet alternative to the occasional foreclosure action.
On a side note, how about that active-to-pending ratio of 6,305:6,931? Any time that REOs and short-sales amount to less than 6% of the current inventory, and there are more pendings than actives you can say the market is in pretty good shape.
Contingents are similar to pendings; they probably have roughly the same chance of closing, because pendings are less of a sure bet at higher rates/prices.
