by Jim the Realtor | Apr 21, 2017 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!
Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
| Reading Date |
Actives |
Pendings |
A+P |
A/P |
| Oct 28, 2015 |
970 |
358 |
1,328 |
2.71 |
| Feb 1, 2016 |
788 |
254 |
1,042 |
3.10 |
| Mar 23, 2016 |
900 |
399 |
1,299 |
2.26 |
| June 21, 2016 |
1,052 |
428 |
1,480 |
2.46 |
| Aug 17, 2016 |
1,060 |
395 |
1,455 |
2.68 |
| Dec 4, 2016 |
886 |
327 |
1,213 |
2.71 |
| Apr 21, 2017 |
842 |
427 |
1,269 |
1.97 |
Considering that we have record-high pricing in most areas, it is phenomenal to see so many pendings – and so few actives!
Actives Median Price = $2,350,000
Pendings Median Price = $1,299,000
Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000!
Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area. If you remove La Jolla and RSF, the A/P = 432/336, or 1.29 to 1!
| Area |
Zip Code |
June |
Aug |
Dec |
Act/Pend Today |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
15/15 = 1.0 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
40/34 = 1.2 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
73/74 = 1.0 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
23/25 = 0.9 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
26/24 = 1.1 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
63/19 = 3.3 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
87/55 = 1.6 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
172/46 = 3.7 |
| RSF |
92067 |
8.2 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
207/40 = 5.2 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
19/13 = 1.5 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
86/77 = 1.1 |
| All Above |
All |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
842/427 = 2.0 |
WOW!
by Jim the Realtor | Apr 10, 2017 | Actives/Pendings, Frenzy, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, North County Coastal |
The market is sizzling, and it could kick up to another level if there were just more homes to sell! Here is a comparison of today’s inventory to previous years (the lower-end is selling fast!):
NSDCC Active Inventory – Second Week of April
| Year |
$0-$800K |
$800K-$1400K |
$1400-$2400K |
$2400K+ |
Total |
| 2014 |
97 |
233 |
233 |
349 |
912 |
| 2015 |
65 |
220 |
218 |
346 |
849 |
| 2016 |
37 |
235 |
260 |
447 |
979 |
| 2017 |
28 |
168 |
235 |
386 |
817 |
NSDCC Pendings Today
| PEND |
$0-$800K |
$800K-$1.4M |
$1.4M-$2.4M |
$2.4M+ |
Total |
| 4/10/17 |
38 |
202 |
126 |
69 |
427 |
Without more homes to sell, it’s like a freeze-dried frenzy on the lower end – very dry but it’ll keep you alive!
From cnbc.com:
Anyone eager to buy a home this spring probably has reasons to feel good. The job market is solid. Average pay is rising. And mortgage rates, even after edging up of late, are still near historic lows.
And then there’s the bad news: Just try to find a house.
The national supply of homes for sale hasn’t been this thin in nearly 20 years. And over the past year, the steepest drop in supply has occurred among homes that are typically most affordable for first-time buyers and in markets where prices have risen sharply.
In markets like San Diego, Boston and Seattle, competition for a dwindling supply has escalated along with pressure to offer more money and accept less favorable terms.
“Sellers will have the edge again this year,” said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist for Trulia, a real estate data provider. “Homebuyers are really going to be scraping the bottom of the barrel as far as housing choice is concerned.”
The intensity of the competition this spring has surprised even sellers like Kathleen Mulcahy, a 37-year-old product manager in Seattle.
Within a week of listing her one-bedroom, one-bath condo, Mulcahy received 21 offers – all above her asking price of $398,000. Most of the offers came with built-in triggers to automatically rise in case a rival bidder sweetened a bid. In the end, she accepted an offer of $500,000 – all cash.
“A lot more than I expected,” Mulcahy said.
Yet the changed landscape cuts both ways: Facing higher prices and competition herself, Mulcahy has decided for now to put off buying another home.
“There’s very little available, and it’s just too expensive right now, so I’m going to wait,” she said. “I’ll probably rent for two or three years.”
About 1.75 million homes were for sale nationally at the end of February, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down 6.4 percent from a year earlier and only slightly up from January, when listings reached their lowest point since the association began tracking them in 1999. All told, the supply of homes for sale has fallen on an annual basis for the past 21 months.
Read full article here:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/10/mission-nearly-impossible-this-spring-finding-a-home-to-buy.html
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 14, 2017 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal |
Let’s use the $1,400,000 price point to show how hot the lower-end market is between Carlsbad and La Jolla. When the active and pending listings are running at a 2 to 1 clip, I consider the market to be relatively healthy – and when you look at our overall market, we are about there:
NSDCC Listings
| Listing Status |
Number of Listings |
Median List Price |
Avg DOM |
| Actives |
807 |
$2,395,000 |
88 |
| Pendings |
391 |
$1,277,900 |
62 |
The Actives:Pendings ratio = 2.08, which is a good start to the selling season.
But when we separate into two sets of data, it is easy to see where the market has been blistering hot:
NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Above:
| Listing Status |
Number of Listings |
Median List Price |
Avg DOM |
| Actives |
620 |
$2,898,000 |
101 |
| Pendings |
165 |
$2,095,000 |
88 |
The Actives:Pendings ratio is 3.76 for the high-enders, which is pretty good, relatively-speaking – it has been much higher in the past.
But let’s look at the lower-end:
NSDCC Listings Priced at $1,400,000 and Below:
| Listing Status |
Number of Listings |
Median List Price |
Avg DOM |
| Actives |
198 |
$1,049,950 |
49 |
| Pendings |
231 |
$979,000 |
42 |
The Actives:Pendings ratio is 0.86 – the lower-end has 33 more pendings than actives, and it’s only March 14th! The 42 average days on market could be seen as the average time it takes for the market to catch up to your price – quick!
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 4, 2017 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Spring Kick |
Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0. When you compare today’s stats to last February – we’re looking pretty good!
NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
| Reading Date |
Active Listings |
Pending Listings |
Ratio |
| Oct 28, 2015 |
970 |
358 |
2.71 |
| Feb 1, 2016 |
788 |
254 |
3.10 |
| Mar 23, 2016 |
900 |
399 |
2.26 |
| June 21, 2016 |
1,052 |
428 |
2.46 |
| Aug 17, 2016 |
1,060 |
395 |
2.68 |
| Dec 4, 2016 |
886 |
327 |
2.71 |
| Feb 4, 2017 |
758 |
309 |
2.45 |
For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!
Here are last February’s Actives/Pendings for each area:
February 1, 2016
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
18 |
2 |
9.00 |
$1,847,500 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
33 |
14 |
2.36 |
$1,199,900 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
76 |
35 |
2.17 |
$1,110,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
12 |
15 |
0.80 |
$744,950 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
37 |
20 |
1.85 |
$1,199,999 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
53 |
15 |
3.53 |
$2,875,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
67 |
40 |
1.68 |
$1,674,900 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
160 |
38 |
4.21 |
$2,972,500 |
| RSF |
92067 |
199 |
26 |
7.65 |
$3,195,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
24 |
10 |
2.40 |
$1,872,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
109 |
39 |
2.79 |
$1,299,900 |
| All Above |
All |
788 |
254 |
3.10 |
$2,165,000 |
Here are today’s numbers – every area except the ultra-high end is sporting a sub-2.0 ratio going into the selling season! Carmel Valley has 41% fewer active listings than a year ago, and the median list price of their active listings today is 33% higher than last year!
February 4, 2017
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
13 |
7 |
1.86 |
$1,595,000 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
32 |
18 |
1.78 |
$1,146,500 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
70 |
51 |
1.37 |
$1,169,500 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
15 |
15 |
1.00 |
$859,000 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
31 |
20 |
1.55 |
$1,159,000 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
54 |
17 |
3.18 |
$2,849,500 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
74 |
37 |
2.00 |
$1,772,500 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
151 |
35 |
4.31 |
$3,295,000 |
| RSF |
92067 |
194 |
43 |
4.51 |
$3,330,500 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
20 |
5 |
4.00 |
$2,075,000 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
64 |
55 |
1.16 |
$1,731,250 |
| All Above |
All |
758 |
309 |
2.45 |
$2,435,990 |
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 4, 2016 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
Historically we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0. Here are the latest ratios for the detached-home market from La Jolla to Carlsbad:
| Reading Date |
Active Listings |
Pending Listings |
Ratio |
| Oct 28, 2015 |
970 |
358 |
2.71 |
| Feb 1, 2016 |
788 |
254 |
3.10 |
| Mar 23, 2016 |
900 |
399 |
2.26 |
| June 21, 2016 |
1,052 |
428 |
2.46 |
| Aug 17, 2016 |
1,060 |
395 |
2.68 |
| Dec 4, 2016 |
886 |
327 |
2.71 |
For those wondering how we will get out of the gate in 2017, consider how fast the market picked up last year – by mid-March, we were already in full-tilt boogie mode, reflected in the lowest ratio of the year!
Here are today’s Actives/Pendings for each area. Except the ultra-highenders, we’re doing as well, or better, than in summertime!
| Area |
Zip Code |
June Ratio |
Aug Ratio |
Dec Ratio |
Actives/Pendings |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
1.1 |
9/8 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
1.3 |
39/31 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
94/50 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
20/16 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
31/24 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
4.9 |
54/11 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
95/52 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
177/40 |
| RSF |
92067 |
8.2 |
6.3 |
6.3 |
214/34 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
2.7 |
19/7 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
84/47 |
| All Above |
All |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
886/327 |
by Jim the Realtor | Aug 17, 2016 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
In June, we checked the local markets by comparing their active-to-pending ratios, which historically have been relatively ‘healthy’ when around 2.0.
Since then, the ratios in four of the eleven areas have improved (gone lower), including Del Mar, La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe – wow!
| Area |
Zip Code |
June ACT/PEND |
Aug ACT/PEND |
June Ratio |
Aug Ratio |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
21/9 |
28/8 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
45/23 |
54/24 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
113/69 |
120/59 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
13/18 |
17/19 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
53/34 |
47/32 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
73/23 |
68/27 |
3.2 |
2.5 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
108/81 |
118/66 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
221/46 |
215/49 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
| RSF |
92067 |
247/30 |
246/39 |
8.2 |
6.3 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
26/9 |
31/8 |
2.9 |
3.9 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
132/80 |
116/64 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
| All Above |
All |
1,052/428 |
1,060/395 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
Most importantly, there hasn’t been any explosions of additional active (unsold) inventory in a month when we usually see the peaks of the year.
by Jim the Realtor | Jun 21, 2016 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
We figure a ‘healthy’ market has a 2:1 ratio of active listings to pendings. Here is our last look at the actives/pendings ratio, from March 23rd:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
19 |
11 |
1.73 |
$2,449,000 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
36 |
26 |
1.38 |
$1,285,000 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
90 |
70 |
1.29 |
$1,189,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
7 |
23 |
0.30 |
$740,000 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
34 |
36 |
0.94 |
$1,062,450 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
69 |
13 |
5.31 |
$2,580,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
92 |
50 |
1.84 |
$1,811,500 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
187 |
53 |
3.53 |
$2,995,000 |
| RSF |
92067 |
232 |
32 |
7.25 |
$3,195,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
24 |
8 |
3.00 |
$1,962,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
110 |
77 |
1.43 |
$1,490,000 |
| All Above |
All |
900 |
399 |
2.26 |
$2,150,000 |
The market was humming along at the end of March, judging by how many areas have their A/P ratio under 2.0.
Today there are 17% more houses for sale, and 7% more pendings, which seems fairly healthy at a 2.46 ratio overall. The majority of areas (6 of 11) are under 2.0 too, and to no one’s surprise, they are the cheaper areas:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
21 |
9 |
2.33 |
$1,650,000 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
45 |
23 |
1.96 |
$1,206,908 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
113 |
69 |
1.64 |
$1,250,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
13 |
18 |
0.72 |
$785,000 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
53 |
34 |
1.56 |
$1,149,000 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
73 |
23 |
3.17 |
$2,475,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
108 |
81 |
1.33 |
$1,650,000 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
221 |
46 |
4.80 |
$2,995,000 |
| RSF |
92067 |
247 |
30 |
8.23 |
$3,199,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
26 |
9 |
2.89 |
$2,472,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
132 |
86 |
1.53 |
$1,497,000 |
| All Above |
All |
1,052 |
428 |
2.46 |
$2,098,500 |
Take out Rancho Santa Fe and the NSDCC overall ratio is 2.04!
by Jim the Realtor | Mar 23, 2016 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Spring Kick |
I like to compare the counts of active and pending listings to help determine the overall ‘health’ of the marketplace, and a 2:1 ratio always seemed to be ‘normal’, roughly. Le’s compare the comparisons!
These are the counts from February 1, 2016:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
18 |
2 |
9.00 |
$1,847,500 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
33 |
14 |
2.36 |
$1,199,900 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
76 |
35 |
2.17 |
$1,110,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
12 |
15 |
0.80 |
$744,950 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
37 |
20 |
1.85 |
$1,199,999 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
53 |
15 |
3.53 |
$2,875,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
67 |
40 |
1.68 |
$1,674,900 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
160 |
38 |
4.21 |
$2,972,500 |
| RSF |
92067 |
199 |
26 |
7.65 |
$3,195,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
24 |
10 |
2.40 |
$1,872,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
109 |
39 |
2.79 |
$1,299,900 |
| All Above |
All |
788 |
254 |
3.10 |
$2,165,000 |
Seven weeks later, and well into the selling season, there has been notable improvement! Those in bold have had a surge of new pendings, and overall there are 57% more pendings today than seven weeks ago:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
19 |
11 |
1.73 |
$2,449,000 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
36 |
26 |
1.38 |
$1,285,000 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
90 |
70 |
1.29 |
$1,189,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
7 |
23 |
0.30 |
$740,000 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
34 |
36 |
0.94 |
$1,,062,450 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
69 |
13 |
5.31 |
$2,580,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
92 |
50 |
1.84 |
$1,811,500 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
187 |
53 |
3.53 |
$2,995,000 |
| RSF |
92067 |
232 |
32 |
7.25 |
$3,195,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
24 |
8 |
3.00 |
$1,962,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
110 |
77 |
1.43 |
$1,490,000 |
| All Above |
All |
900 |
399 |
2.26 |
$2,150,000 |
If it weren’t for Rancho Santa Fe being a stick in the mud (median LP hasn’t budged either), we could say the entire NSDCC market is on fire.
by Jim the Realtor | Feb 1, 2016 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
We have been measuring the ‘health’ of a market by comparing the actives to pending listings, and figured that a 2:1 ratio was about right. You can click on the ‘Actives/Pendings’ button below (next to date) to see the history.
But it looks like the day has come – that you have to spend at least a million dollars to buy a decent house near the coast:
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio |
Median LP of ACT |
| Cardiff |
92007 |
18 |
2 |
9.00 |
$1,847,500 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
33 |
14 |
2.36 |
$1,199,900 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
76 |
35 |
2.17 |
$1,110,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
12 |
15 |
0.80 |
$744,950 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
37 |
20 |
1.85 |
$1,199,999 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
53 |
15 |
3.53 |
$2,875,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
67 |
40 |
1.68 |
$1,674,900 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
160 |
38 |
4.21 |
$2,972,500 |
| RSF |
92067 |
199 |
26 |
7.65 |
$3,195,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
24 |
10 |
2.40 |
$1,872,500 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
109 |
39 |
2.79 |
$1,299,900 |
| All Above |
All |
788 |
254 |
3.10 |
$2,165,000 |
by Jim the Realtor | Oct 28, 2015 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal |
From time to time we judge the current ‘health’ of the market by dividing the active listings by the pending listings. For the record, it was Peter B. who agreed with me years ago that the healthy balance is around two actives to one pending. The ‘months of inventory’ is derived from dividing the actives by the September solds.
| Area |
Zip Code |
ACT |
PEND |
Ratio
|
Mo. of Inv
|
Median LP of ACT
|
| Cardiff |
92007 |
13 |
15 |
0.86 |
1.9 |
$1,580,000 |
| Carlsbad NW |
92008 |
36 |
21 |
1.71 |
2.1 |
$1,024,500 |
| Carlsbad SE |
92009 |
107 |
52 |
2.06 |
1.8 |
$1,075,000 |
| Carlsbad NE |
92010 |
15 |
21 |
0.71 |
1.4 |
$753,000 |
| Carlsbad SW |
92011 |
52 |
21 |
2.48 |
2.5 |
$972,000 |
| Del Mar |
92014 |
59 |
23 |
2.57 |
4.5 |
$2,975,000 |
| Encinitas |
92024 |
100 |
68 |
1.47 |
2.8 |
$1,595,000 |
| La Jolla |
92037 |
190 |
44 |
4.32 |
8.3 |
$2,995,000 |
| RSF |
92067 |
232 |
29 |
8.00 |
12.9 |
$3,354,000 |
| Solana Bch |
92075 |
33 |
6 |
5.50 |
5.5 |
$1,745,000 |
| Carmel Vly |
92130 |
133 |
58 |
2.29 |
4.0 |
$1,299,000 |
| All Above |
All |
970 |
358 |
2.71 |
4.0 |
$1,989,500 |
The 8-to-1 actives-to-pendings ratio and the 13 months of inventory in Rancho Santa Fe can probably classify it as a buyer’s market. But even with our substantially higher prices, the other areas look fairly healthy.
