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Has there ever been a precedent to our current housing frenzy? Yes – back in the 2000-2005 era, which a new blogging guy coined, ‘The Golden Age of Real Estate’ (bubbleinfo.com was three months old). Note the S&P Index:
Date: December 25, 2005
The median price of a single-family home in North County, and in California as a whole, has roughly doubled in the last five years. That familiar statistic implies that virtually anyone who bought in 2000 and sold five years later reaped a profit.
California and the rest of the U.S. benefited from low interest rates, enabling people to buy more expensive homes than they otherwise would have been able to afford, said Jim Klinge, a Carlsbad-based Realtor.
And in San Diego County, price increases of about 20 percent a year became expected, encouraging people to buy at any cost, in the expectation of sure profits.
By comparison, other investments didn’t look so good in the aftermath of the collapse of the stock market bubble, which began in 2000. For example, the Standard & Poors index of 500 stocks closed on Nov 1, 2000, at 1,429.40. As of Nov. 1, 2005, the S&P500 closed at 1,202.76. (today it’s at 4,480).
The real estate increases fueled spending by homeowners, who got ready cash from their rising home equity. A strong economy, with lower unemployment than the state and national averages, helped people buy, turning the county into one of the hottest real estate markets in America.
That market cooled down this year, with most months posting only single-digit gains over the same month in 2004. (November, with a 14 percent year-over-year increase in North County single-home median prices, was an exception.)
Real estate professionals have said the slowdown was inevitable since prices, along with factors such as the ratio of monthly mortgage payments to rental payments, have gotten far out of whack. A study by Torto Wheaton Research this year found that San Diego County’s rental-to-buy payment ratio was 40 percent, the lowest of any of the major markets it studied.
“I think we’ll look on these last five years as the golden age of real estate,” Klinge said. “The increases in the median price, both locally and countywide, have been astonishing for Realtors and buyers and sellers alike. We won’t see this again for the foreseeable future.”
But the gains weren’t evenly distributed. Depending on where the home is located, that potential profit varies from marginal —— in percentage terms, but not necessarily in dollars —— to outstanding.
As 2006 is about to begin, Klinge said prospective buyers should think long term. With prices as high as they are, the potential for quick gains that lured “flippers” to buy houses only to sell them a short while later is nearly gone.
With more sellers on the market, the buy-at-all-costs mentality of a short while ago has vanished, Klinge said. Homes will still sell, but at a slower rate and a lower price. Sellers can’t count on big profits, and prices could even fall at times, he said.
“I would say the market is going to be completely driven by buyers buying a house to live in,” Klinge said. “So if you’re going to buy a house, make sure it’s going to last you for years.”
Rob Dawg suggested that we examine the quartiles, and they show how top heavy the inventory is today. Almost one-quarter of the homes for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad are priced over $10,000,000!
1st Quartile: $2,773,500
2nd Quartile (median): $5,100,000
3rd Quartile: $9,922,500
I’ll get those on a graph and we’ll follow along each week.
There have been 40 new pendings in each of the last two weeks, and there are already more pendings than actives – including nine new pendings this week priced over $4,000,000:
NSDCC Actives: 173
NSDCC Pendings: 182
There have only been 182 new listings this month, which is way below the January count of 288 last year. We will take the final number on February 15th for the contest, but it looks like it will be under 200!
All buyers can hope for is that the ultra-low January count can be blamed on the ‘cron and sellers are waiting a month or two. We were hoping this year might get back to normal – now wondering if we can just get close to last year’s inventory count in time for the selling season!
Nearly 75% want electric appliances? I haven’t met anyone who would give up their gas stove.
There are many ways we can make a difference, like reducing our dependence on gas to power our homes. In fact, at least 48 cities in the country have outlawed natural gas in new home construction. If you’re looking for ways to upgrade your home in the new eco-friendly era, here’s where you can start.
The road to a cleaner, safer, healthier planet begins at your front door. Research shows that homeowners have a critical role to play in the race to a zero-carbon world. There are myriad ways we can make a difference, like reducing our dependence on gas to power our homes and putting more solar panels on rooftops. Here’s how to flip the switch on an all-electric house.
When it comes to cleaning up our energy habits—reducing our use of natural gas and electricity generated at coal-and-gas-powered plants—people in the West are ready to change their ways. Nearly three-quarters of Californians said that they would prefer efficient electric appliances powered by clean energy instead of fossil gas, according to a survey conducted by FM3, the California-based research organization, and released by Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law firm. And the state energy commission aims to put standards in place that would require newly constructed homes to be electric-ready. In June, on the hottest day in Oregon’s recorded history, lawmakers passed groundbreaking legislation requiring the state to convert to 100 percent clean, “responsible” energy by 2040. At press time, 48 cities in the country had outlawed natural gas in construction of new homes and commercial buildings, according to the Sierra Club’s tally.
Every piece of the technology puzzle that we need to make this dramatic shift in our power supply and our behavior at home already exists.
People keep saying that the inventory is low, but it means that there’s not a lot of active listings sitting around not selling (which will be the sign that the frenzy is over). Let’s determine whether the inventory has actually been lower than normal by comparing the number of sales to previous years:
The inventory must be fine, considering the number of 2021 sales in EVERY area were at least the median number of their five-year group, or higher, and the highlighted counts were the BEST of the five-year group. The total of 3,176 will probably increase in the coming months and end up #5 of all-time!
If you are a buyer and feel stymied by the lack of inventory, you may want to reconsider. It’s more likely that you’re not moving fast enough, you’re not doing it right, or you’re on the outside looking in.
Last year, home buyers viewed a median of eight homes before purchasing — the lowest number on record, according to research from the National Association of REALTORS®. That’s fewer than in 2009 and 2011, when housing inventory was more plentiful and buyers viewed a median of 12 homes before buying.
Among the median eight homes viewed by buyers, three were viewed online only with the help of virtual and video tours as well as virtual open houses, according to NAR data.
The new listings of 2022 are only trickling out, but we know that there can be spurts.
We’re seeing one underway in Encinitas Ranch, where five listings are hitting the market this week! The three Coming-Soons will all change to active listings on Saturday.
Buyers – there is hope!
Whenever there are two or more homes for sale in a neighborhood, there is one fact of life:
Either yours is selling mine, or mine is selling yours.
The chances of EVERY house being perfectly priced to reflect their condition AND compare favorably to all other choices is about the same as the Padres chances of winning the World Series. It’s possible every year, but come on.
There are times when NONE are perfectly priced, causing a stalemate and no sales.
The market is hot enough that at least one of these listings will compare more favorably than the rest, and will sell this weekend. With few or no other choices for sale currently, the ultra-hot frenzy conditions could pick up two of more of these listings.
Let’s see how many go pending in the next seven days!
Why realtors don't get - or deserve - any respect. Our leaders publish articles that make no mention of how much prices have come down. Instead, they pretend it didn't happen. Rates at 5.65%? You can do way better than this - let's get real. @NAR_Research