Are you looking ahead to the Frenzy of 2022?
It’s looking a little somber right now.
Buyers will be scouring the market early, in hopes of getting a fast start in January.
But we only have 43% of the active listings today that we had last year at this time, which means the sellers who list their home for sale over the next 30-45 days will have the market to themselves.
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The craziest year on record is wrapping up – how does 2021 compare?
San Diego County Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Annual
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The median sales price is 18% higher YoY, and in spite of having about 20% fewer listings than normal, sales have held up – because virtually everything is selling!
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Annual
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The NSDCC median sales price increased by 28% YoY, and in spite of having about 27% fewer listings than normal, sales will probably get close to the 2013 total!
The record for most NSDCC sales was 3,929 in 2003, back when the median sales price was $732,500.
This Compass listing just closed escrow this week for $5,400,000:
Over 10,000 square feet of indoor and heated outdoor entertainment spaces, covered/heated loggias. Gated Estate with exceptional manicured grounds and rare dual bay motor coach villa/guest house. Renovated over the past 10 years, this thoughtful residence is designed with an Anglo Caribbean architectural style set on a cul-de-sac.
The main home features both a gourmet and full prep kitchen appointed with all high grade appliances and detail, perfect for servicing large events. Upgraded elevator, multiple ensuite bedrooms and a generous master bedroom/bathroom suite with large balcony w/spa, dual walk in closets, crystal chandeliers, and steam shower. Full outdoor kitchen set under the covered loggia with views of the grounds and living pond, Well prepared for indoor and outdoor events, the spectacular single level guest house with full kitchen and wine storage also includes two generous en-suite bedrooms. A gated motor court with limo-depth 4 car garage and room for boats/trailers.
For the car or RV enthusiast the motor coach villa could be an indoor sports court as well, home has large solar system and pool solar system with plenty of storage. A rare compound set on a flat 1.51 acre lot, a mature botanical garden of specimen palms, citrus, fruit and other rare tropical plants.
The folks at realtor.com think the San Diego-Carlsbad market will appreciate 4.8% next year. We’ll do that much in the first quarter! They expect inventory to rebound, and our sales to increase 0.2%.
The run on home prices is almost over.
At least that’s what economists at Realtor.com are projecting.
The real estate listing site, which is owned by News Corp, forecasts median existing home sales prices will rise 2.9% over the coming 12 months.
That would mark a substantial slowdown from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index’s latest reading of year-over-year U.S. home price growth (up 19.5% between September 2020 and the same month this year). If Realtor.com’s projection comes to fruition, it would also be the slowest 12-month rate of price growth since 2012.
No, this wouldn’t be a housing correction or crash. However, slower price growth would provide buyers a bit of breathing room. Less bidding. More time to search for homes. And maybe even a chance for some buyers to finally save up for a down payment.
“After years of declining, the inventory of homes for sale is finally expected to rebound from all-time lows…Homebuyers will have a better chance to find a home in 2022, but fierce competition and affordability continue to be a challenge,” wrote Realtor.com researchers in their outlook.
Their survey indicated that more people are planning to sell, so that’s good – though our coastal region is dominated by baby boomers, so we might not be as lucky as others:
16-month investigation and $500,000?
Heck, just follow my red line, and add some houses while you’re at it!
CARLSBAD — The city is preparing for sea-level rise by partnering with a prominent local research organization to perform a realignment study on a portion of Carlsbad Boulevard to help mitigate any future structural damage due to climate change.
The South Carlsbad Boulevard Climate Adaptation Project marks the first major review of the city’s infrastructure in relation to sea-level rise, according to Mike Grim, the city’s senior program manager.
The study is expected to take about 16 months and return to the council in Feb. 2023, according to Grim.
“It’s doing a little more detailed analysis of bluff erosion and flooding impacts would be due to sea-level rise or extreme storms,” Grim said. “And then analyzing the realignment of the boulevard and then what to do with that intervening space. We are going to move that as far east as we can.”
The Carlsbad City Council approved a $498,075 grant during its Sept. 14 meeting from the California State Coastal Conservancy for Scripps Institute of Oceanography to conduct studies on sea-level rise and how to move the road’s southbound lane eastward, away from the ocean, between Palomar Airport Road and Island Way.
The city will begin its public outreach to residents and businesses in January.
https://www.davidsoncommunities.com/the-grant-house
Real estate has been challenging for many buyers this year, with home prices up sharply and inventory at record low levels. Some buyers may get a break in 2022, but it’s not likely to be in some of the nation’s smaller cities that have seen strong housing demand due to remote work during the pandemic.
The cities that are likely to see the strongest price increases and home sales are described as second-tier cities that offer better affordability and more space compared with the nation’s largest cities, according to a new forecast from Realtor.com. It based its forecasts on recent home sales as well as economic trends, such as unemployment and household growth.
Boise, Idaho, is again likely to be near the forefront in 2022, Realtor.com predicted. That comes after local property prices surged more than 30% in the third quarter, and Boise was named the least affordable housing market in the U.S. — with the city’s median home price jumping to almost $535,000, or 10 times the city’s median income.
Boise is attracting people who want to relocate from expensive tech hubs like San Francisco, people for whom those prices may seem like a deal compared with pricing in bigger cities. And that trend is likely to continue in 2022, said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale.
“2021 was an ultracompetitive year for the real estate market, especially for smaller secondary tech markets. They benefited from knowledge workers being freed up from going into the office every day,” Hale noted. Next year will be “in many ways a continuation of what we saw this year.”
She added, “People are embracing the flexibility of the workplace and moving into areas that are more affordable.”
Most of the top 10 markets for 2022 have a “small-town kind of quality of life, yet they still have thriving local economies,” Hale noted.
Average home prices in the top 10 real estate markets are expected to jump 7.4% next year, or more than twice the national pace of 2.9%, Realtor.com said. Buyers may get a break next year with more inventory entering the market, relieving some of the low-stock issues that hampered home purchasers in 2021, Hale noted.
Many big cities like New York and Los Angeles are forecast to see price appreciations but may not match some of the smaller cities, according to the forecast. Prices in the New York metropolitan region, for example, are predicted to rise 2.3% in 2022, while home prices in the Los Angeles are likely to rise 4.8%, Realtor.com said.
Below are the top 10 markets for 2022, based on estimates from Realtor.com. Forecasts include the change in number of homes sold as well as prices for 2022 versus 2021.
1. Salt Lake City, Utah
2. Boise City, Idaho
3. Spokane-Spokane Valley, Washington
4. Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Indiana
5. Columbus, Ohio
6. Providence-Warwick, Rhode Island-Massachusetts
7. Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, South Carolina
8. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Washington
9. Worcester, Mass.-Connecticut
10. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Florida
Article includes a 2:30-min video of Boise market conditions:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/10-top-housing-markets-of-2022-think-boise-not-new-york-city/
As hot as our market is right now, it sure seems like we will get off to a fast start in 2022!
The first house mentioned in this video is linked here. The LCV home was listed for $1,695,000 and closed for $2,000,000 for a 2,438sf tract house built in 2000 on a 9,198sf lot. The sale closed on October 21st:
From Carlsbad, California!
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