It didn’t start out that way, though. We trudged into 2010 trying to survive a dreary, depressed real estate market. But thanks to Ben Bernanke, who engineered the greatest soft landing in history, the rules were changed and the market responded – quickly turning into a wicked sellers’ market.
Reader LM commented on what Ben Bernanke said towards the end of a live press conference:
“We have told the banks to handle their REOs…..long pause....in an economy-supportive way”.
Oops. What he was GOING to say – ‘we have told the banks not to flood the market with REOs’.
Bernanke’s remarks are from June, 2011, and you can see that foreclosures were already declining:
The housing market started to recover, and in 2012, the north-county coastal sales took off:
Here at the blog, we were left to figure out a real estate market without foreclosures. I appreciate those of you who have endured the investigation here! The conclusion?
The FED learned that it’s better to change the rules, rather than endure the natural market forces.
How we sell real estate has changed too. The physical hand-writing (and explaining) of contracts has morphed into a slick bunch of clicks on an electronic form that the buyers will never read while committing themselves to being hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of dollars in debt. The realtor teams have emerged to usher clients to the finish line, which means most buyers are rushed through a home inspection, then beg for a few bucks from the seller instead of repairs, and pick up their keys usually within 30 days – all so you can leave 5-star reviews!
It looks so easy that just about anyone can make it in real estate sales now – and it’s become the career of last resort for many. The best example is the blogger Casey Serin, who became famous for losing five properties to foreclosure that he had he bought on ninja loans. He got divorced, changed his name, went offline, and then resurfaced as a realtor. He now has his own brokerage in the Sacramento area, and he made about $60,000 this year – which is a decent living for a guy like him:
Heck, if he can do it, anyone can!
Biggest surprises of the decade? The no-doc mortgages haven’t returned (yet), Google & Amazon haven’t entered the fray (yet), and the district attorney hasn’t prosecuted more than a handful of realtors for doing shady deals (I could name hundreds). I did have two encounters with the FBI where I laid out the evidence, but they weren’t interested, so I guess it’s ok.
Our move to Compass in 2018 was a result of it becoming obvious that outsiders would disrupt our industry without a fight, and being on the right team was going to be critical to success. In-house sales are the future of the residential resale market, and who you know will make all the difference (just like in commercial real estate sales).
Over the last ten years, I’ve had 7,711 blog posts, Donna and I helped 300+ families buy and/or sell a property, we got two kids though college, and we appeared in a documentary film – wow, what a decade!
I appreciate you being here – let’s make the next one, the best one!
As our real estate market wraps up its strongest decade in history, let’s looks back at the trends.
The government intervened early in the decade by stopping foreclosures and manipulating rates to all-time lows. It resulted in the longest, strongest sellers’ market we’ve ever seen, with no real end in sight. How ridiculous has it become? This week I wrote an offer with the price and terms that the seller demanded, and she countered over the smoke detectors.
Big-time outsiders entered the industry too, hoping to get in on the commission pie. Because none of the industry leaders have been willing to put up an fight, individual agents are left to fend for themselves, and they have resorted to survival gimmicks like short-sale fraud and off-market sales.
Every March we would get a surge of new listings, and the number of choices would grow until August. Lately the inventory has peaked sooner as both buyers and sellers are more antsy about procuring a sale. The most fascinating trend has been how inventory has dwindled with rising prices – in the past when pricing would go up, it would cause more homeowners to sell, but not now:
Each year the best deals sell first, causing a gradual lift in pricing as the summer rolls on and buyers end up paying more later for the leftovers. These are interactive graphs, so you can see the stats for each month by running your cursor over the lines:
What can we expect over the next decade?
Mostly we will be selling old-people homes as the baby boomers phase out. In California there will be less impact as the kids find a way to keep the family estate and preserve the ultra-low property taxes, rather than buy a different home. But it seems inevitable that fewer move-up buyers will bother with the difficulties of moving, and just end up staying put – leaving only the old empty houses to sell.
The first few months of 2020 will be rip-roaring hot, and where that takes us will be very intriguing. If more oldtimers decide that leaving the state is the best/last/only solution, then the market could really take off as the inventory surges with more sort-of-reasonably-priced homes.
New park amenities, libraries, clean energy and more, join us in a look back at 2019. A quick shout out to city employees for their accomplishments to help ensure our community enjoys an excellent quality of life. We look forward to serving you in 2020. #gratitude#localgovpic.twitter.com/rgFsJSPtOw
Now that the holidays are passing by, more people will be thinking of sprucing up their home to sell. Painting your front door is a good place to start! Here’s a link to selecting the right color choice:
An elaborate short-term rental scheme in Carlsbad tricked a young renter and property owner into losing thousands, according to the victims.
The victims, property owner Nick Foster and renter Courtney Hulla, told NBC 7 the scammer used both Airbnb and Craigslist to carry out the scheme.
On Saturday, Hulla found a Carlsbad condo available to rent on Craigslist, or so she thought.
“$650 deposit, $650 rent. We were like it’s a nice area. That seems too good to be true,” said Hulla.
She contacted a man named David, who told her he was the owner of a rental near the Carlsbad Village. He even invited her to the condo, Hulla told NBC 7.
NBC 7 is not publishing the alleged scammer’s last name because he has not been charged with any crime at this point in time.
“Walked up to the place and checked it out. He was doing laundry at the time,” said Hulla. “He said ‘Check out the place,’ you know, ‘You can walk around. I’m packing stuff up and leaving for Chicago on Thursday. This person bailed. Let me know if you like it. We can start moving forward.’
Hulla met David in person twice and said the man shared details about his life, his work and even signed a lease agreement with her.
She paid him one month’s rent and a deposit, as agreed, totaling $1,300. He gave her a set of keys.
“There’s no way this guy’s trying to do anything, scam me. He’s being too real about it,” said Hulla.
Hulla still felt uneasy, so she went to test out the keys at the condo. She noticed a light on inside and texted David, the so-called owner.
“‘I think that there are people, there are people in there. Can you explain that?’ He was like, ‘Oh they’re my aunt and uncle, just don’t scare them,’” Hulla said.
Turns out that the couple had rented the place through Airbnb from the real condo owner, Nick Foster, a Carlsbad resident.
“He made the condo his own. He acted like he owned it to sell his con to someone,” Foster said.
Foster told NBC 7, David, who had rented the condo through Airbnb before, also stole two portable AC units and other belongings over his two-week stay.
Both Hulla and Foster have reported the incident to the police. Foster has also contacted Airbnb.
“You have a conman on your platform and that he’s clearly done this before and he’s gonna do it again,” said Foster.
Neither has heard from David again.
Hulla was not able to cancel the payments she had made through the Facebook app and PayPal.
