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As our real estate market wraps up its strongest decade in history, let’s looks back at the trends.

The government intervened early in the decade by stopping foreclosures and manipulating rates to all-time lows. It resulted in the longest, strongest sellers’ market we’ve ever seen, with no real end in sight. How ridiculous has it become? This week I wrote an offer with the price and terms that the seller demanded, and she countered over the smoke detectors.

Big-time outsiders entered the industry too, hoping to get in on the commission pie. Because none of the industry leaders have been willing to put up an fight, individual agents are left to fend for themselves, and they have resorted to survival gimmicks like short-sale fraud and off-market sales.

Every March we would get a surge of new listings, and the number of choices would grow until August. Lately the inventory has peaked sooner as both buyers and sellers are more antsy about procuring a sale. The most fascinating trend has been how inventory has dwindled with rising prices – in the past when pricing would go up, it would cause more homeowners to sell, but not now:

Each year the best deals sell first, causing a gradual lift in pricing as the summer rolls on and buyers end up paying more later for the leftovers. These are interactive graphs, so you can see the stats for each month by running your cursor over the lines:

What can we expect over the next decade?

Mostly we will be selling old-people homes as the baby boomers phase out. In California there will be less impact as the kids find a way to keep the family estate and preserve the ultra-low property taxes, rather than buy a different home. But it seems inevitable that fewer move-up buyers will bother with the difficulties of moving, and just end up staying put – leaving only the old empty houses to sell.

The first few months of 2020 will be rip-roaring hot, and where that takes us will be very intriguing. If more oldtimers decide that leaving the state is the best/last/only solution, then the market could really take off as the inventory surges with more sort-of-reasonably-priced homes.

The UNDER-$1,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
36
$477/sf
51
58
Jan 8
35
$479/sf
42
56
Jan 15
39
$469/sf
37
53
Jan 22
37
$453/sf
42
62
Jan 29
38
$459/sf
35
64
Feb 5
41
$463/sf
26
69
Feb 12
39
$461/sf
20
73
Feb 19
42
$456/sf
20
72
Feb 26
53
$451/sf
20
81
Mar 5
47
$457/sf
24
79
Mar 12
60
$434/sf
19
87
Mar 19
67
$478/sf
21
81
Mar 26
61
$477/sf
23
86
Apr 2
50
$464/sf
24
95
Apr 9
56
$471/sf
23
93
Apr 16
61
$464/sf
24
93
Apr 23
59
$459/sf
25
96
Apr 30
61
$466/sf
27
95
May 7
67
$472/sf
20
89
May 14
66
$480/sf
21
95
May 21
81
$474/sf
21
85
May 28
83
$438/sf
24
91
Jun 4
80
$442/sf
27
97
Jun 11
81
$427/sf
27
91
Jun 18
88
$442/sf
29
78
Jun 25
93
$442/sf
31
77
Jul 2
96
$443/sf
30
76
Jul 9
98
$447/sf
33
65
Jul 16
98
$445/sf
34
78
Jul 23
97
$436/sf
34
68
Jul 30
116
$433/sf
32
71
Aug 6
111
$434/sf
31
64
Aug 13
115
$434/sf
34
64
Aug 20
110
$426/sf
37
58
Aug 27
117
$430/sf
36
64
Sep 3
109
$427/sf
38
62
Sep 10
113
$436/sf
36
61
Sep 17
117
$439/sf
36
59
Sep 24
109
$440/sf
37
61
Oct 1
100
$441/sf
40
67
Oct 8
106
$441/sf
40
66
Oct 15
112
$434/sf
43
57
Oct 22
111
$426/sf
42
63
Oct 29
114
$422/sf
41
64
Nov 5
110
$418/sf
44
58
Nov 12
115
$449/sf
42
60
Nov 19
111
$449/sf
42
60
Nov 26
106
$450/sf
49
60
Dec 3
99
$454/sf
47
56
Dec 10
99
$455/sf
47
55
Dec 17
89
$450/sf
49
51
Dec 24
83
$462/sf
55
51
Dec 31
78
$462/sf
61
49
Jan 7
72
$469/sf
55
49
Jan 14
78
$487/sf
49
48
Jan 21
82
$488/sf
49
49
Jan 28
68
$480/sf
53
64
Feb 4
72
$483/sf
53
69
Feb 11
75
$481/sf
45
74
Feb 18
67
$482/sf
46
76
Feb 25
67
$494/sf
47
67
Mar 4
82
$478/sf
38
64
Mar 11
90
$471/sf
36
65
Mar 18
95
$475/sf
37
69
Mar 25
98
$463/sf
36
72
Apr 1
94
$462/sf
38
71
Apr 8
91
$455/sf
42
75
Apr 15
93
$463/sf
42
75
Apr 22
94
$481/sf
44
78
Apr 29
99
$469/sf
43
84
May 6
106
$466/sf
38
81
May 13
102
$470/sf
38
78
May 20
112
$453/sf
31
79
May 27
110
$464/sf
34
80
Jun 3
113
$469/sf
33
84
Jun 10
109
$463/sf
36
88
Jun 17
109
$465/sf
35
89
Jun 24
105
$474/sf
37
84
Jul 1
96
$474/sf
38
79
Jul 8
89
$472/sf
46
85
Jul 15
100
$490/sf
43
82
Jul 22
94
$494/sf
44
84
Jul 29
97
$493/sf
44
78
Aug 5
99
$490/sf
43
69
Aug 12
101
$482/sf
39
65
Aug 19
103
$487/sf
39
64
Aug 26
106
$476/sf
44
59
Sep 2
96
$471/sf
48
59
Sep 9
88
$477/sf
48
59
Sep 16
94
$474/sf
41
56
Sep 23
86
$467/sf
46
56
Sep 30
84
$467/sf
50
58
Oct 7
80
$487/sf
44
56
Oct 14
82
$478/sf
44
54
Oct 21
70
$470/sf
47
57
Oct 28
66
$458/sf
44
52
Nov 4
60
$460/sf
40
50
Nov 11
71
$462/sf
44
56
Nov 18
72
$472/sf
36
59
Nov 25
66
$473/sf
39
61
Dec 2
57
$481/sf
43
58
Dec 9
58
$458/sf
38
48
Dec 16
51
$458/sf
43
51
Dec 23
46
$463/sf
46
49
Dec 30
45
$460/sf
48
43

The $1,000,000 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
91
$532/sf
72
68
Jan 8
99
$551/sf
64
64
Jan 15
96
$535/sf
61
75
Jan 22
107
$515/sf
63
82
Jan 29
108
$512/sf
57
91
Feb 5
110
$518/sf
49
100
Feb 12
117
$487/sf
46
106
Feb 19
107
$500/sf
45
114
Feb 26
112
$485/sf
46
117
Mar 5
111
$496/sf
45
115
Mar 12
126
$475/sf
43
109
Mar 19
125
$487/sf
47
129
Mar 26
133
$484/sf
47
124
Apr 2
139
$495/sf
47
121
Apr 9
148
$485/sf
51
119
Apr 16
145
$474/sf
45
114
Apr 23
162
$470/sf
43
117
Apr 30
162
$486/sf
42
121
May 7
180
$495/sf
40
117
May 14
182
$491/sf
41
127
May 21
184
$475/sf
40
135
May 28
188
$473/sf
40
139
Jun 4
189
$469/sf
43
148
Jun 11
199
$469/sf
45
142
Jun 18
193
$465/sf
44
143
Jun 25
211
$476/sf
39
141
Jul 2
206
$483/sf
41
142
Jul 9
201
$483/sf
45
146
Jul 16
200
$502/sf
44
145
Jul 23
217
$504/sf
45
148
Jul 30
210
$493/sf
48
154
Aug 6
209
$493/sf
45
146
Aug 13
214
$496/sf
44
147
Aug 20
205
$494/sf
46
145
Aug 27
211
$493/sf
46
134
Sep 3
207
$486/sf
45
129
Sep 10
211
$489/sf
47
125
Sep 17
194
$483/sf
49
120
Sep 24
209
$476/sf
49
108
Oct 1
207
$476/sf
48
107
Oct 8
201
$481/sf
48
110
Oct 15
203
$487/sf
48
110
Oct 22
203
$492/sf
48
108
Oct 29
204
$495/sf
51
104
Nov 5
204
$490/sf
53
98
Nov 12
198
$498/sf
52
97
Nov 19
192
$498/sf
55
93
Nov 26
181
$492/sf
58
92
Dec 3
174
$478/sf
57
93
Dec 10
164
$487/sf
60
88
Dec 17
157
$487/sf
62
85
Dec 24
148
$493/sf
65
75
Dec 31
147
$495/sf
64
76
Jan 7
154
$497/sf
58
69
Jan 14
158
$489/sf
54
65
Jan 21
161
$503/sf
55
56
Jan 28
169
$489/sf
52
60
Feb 4
167
$502/sf
50
69
Feb 11
157
$504/sf
51
84
Feb 18
168
$494/sf
47
83
Feb 25
175
$494/sf
49
84
Mar 4
174
$507/sf
44
86
Mar 11
175
$501/sf
44
91
Mar 18
194
$526/sf
43
99
Mar 25
189
$510/sf
44
104
Apr 1
188
$513/sf
45
107
Apr 8
215
$512/sf
45
104
Apr 15
211
$515/sf
46
108
Apr 22
201
$513/sf
49
117
Apr 29
193
$507/sf
49
128
May 6
211
$506/sf
49
121
May 13
201
$497/sf
52
131
May 20
207
$507/sf
48
129
May 27
198
$513/sf
49
133
Jun 3
197
$510/sf
51
129
Jun 10
204
$511/sf
50
129
Jun 17
198
$506/sf
55
117
Jun 24
192
$510/sf
55
120
Jul 1
198
$503/sf
56
119
Jul 8
186
$512/sf
58
123
Jul 15
191
$504/sf
57
126
Jul 22
189
$498/sf
57
125
Jul 29
192
$494/sf
56
120
Aug 5
186
$498/sf
52
119
Aug 12
180
$486/sf
52
114
Aug 19
179
$493/sf
50
127
Aug 26
183
$518/sf
45
120
Sep 2
184
$517/sf
46
105
Sep 9
182
$508/sf
48
105
Sep 16
188
$515/sf
47
100
Sep 23
185
$530/sf
46
93
Sep 30
179
$532/sf
49
95
Oct 7
179
$533/sf
50
97
Oct 14
171
$546/sf
55
94
Oct 21
165
$551/sf
55
99
Oct 28
160
$545/sf
54
103
Nov 4
151
$541/sf
53
103
Nov 11
147
$545/sf
57
104
Nov 18
142
$563/sf
58
103
Nov 25
133
$583/sf
60
109
Dec 2
125
$559/sf
64
108
Dec 9
122
$567/sf
63
95
Dec 16
111
$566/sf
62
90
Dec 23
98
$594/sf
66
81
Dec 30
94
$597/sf
70
70

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
84
$612/sf
86
40
Jan 8
98
$612/sf
73
42
Jan 15
98
$607/sf
73
42
Jan 22
111
$589/sf
63
42
Jan 29
120
$577/sf
61
45
Feb 5
114
$586/sf
56
51
Feb 12
118
$566/sf
52
57
Feb 19
121
$596/sf
53
64
Feb 26
122
$596/sf
53
64
Mar 5
125
$593/sf
56
70
Mar 12
131
$602/sf
53
67
Mar 19
120
$598/sf
58
74
Mar 26
121
$596/sf
57
75
Apr 2
128
$593/sf
55
70
Apr 9
140
$612/sf
54
66
Apr 16
146
$617/sf
50
67
Apr 23
149
$616/sf
53
78
Apr 30
152
$605/sf
60
81
May 7
157
$618/sf
63
85
May 14
158
$614/sf
63
87
May 21
154
$637/sf
54
82
May 28
146
$633/sf
58
80
Jun 4
149
$614/sf
54
76
Jun 11
158
$615/sf
50
83
Jun 18
164
$606/sf
53
77
Jun 25
160
$606/sf
56
73
Jul 2
160
$607/sf
56
69
Jul 9
160
$590/sf
63
65
Jul 16
160
$591/sf
63
66
Jul 23
156
$587/sf
65
67
Jul 30
158
$582/sf
68
69
Aug 6
165
$590/sf
59
70
Aug 13
166
$596/sf
58
72
Aug 20
172
$608/sf
61
67
Aug 27
171
$622/sf
66
65
Sep 3
172
$611/sf
67
64
Sep 10
176
$603/sf
69
52
Sep 17
177
$613/sf
70
56
Sep 24
174
$618/sf
72
56
Oct 1
164
$624/sf
73
57
Oct 8
169
$612/sf
68
57
Oct 15
174
$612/sf
69
51
Oct 22
171
$602/sf
69
55
Oct 29
159
$601/sf
73
57
Nov 5
158
$601/sf
68
63
Nov 12
157
$605/sf
66
57
Nov 19
147
$624/sf
70
57
Nov 26
141
$620/sf
74
53
Dec 3
131
$611/sf
76
53
Dec 10
127
$619/sf
76
50
Dec 17
118
$632/sf
80
45
Dec 24
109
$644/sf
86
37
Dec 31
104
$636/sf
94
35
Jan 7
108
$628/sf
86
33
Jan 14
107
$647/sf
83
37
Jan 21
113
$665/sf
77
39
Jan 28
116
$676/sf
76
42
Feb 4
125
$665/sf
73
41
Feb 11
131
$670/sf
72
43
Feb 18
132
$674/sf
71
49
Feb 25
130
$670/sf
66
53
Mar 4
134
$677/sf
59
59
Mar 11
143
$674/sf
57
53
Mar 18
143
$649/sf
56
67
Mar 25
133
$642/sf
56
66
Apr 1
131
$621/sf
53
69
Apr 8
139
$618/sf
49
77
Apr 15
149
$630/sf
50
75
Apr 22
145
$616/sf
50
72
Apr 29
148
$605/sf
49
77
May 6
157
$606/sf
48
74
May 13
159
$599/sf
47
72
May 20
170
$612/sf
48
73
May 27
165
$595/sf
50
79
Jun 3
172
$607/sf
52
70
Jun 10
181
$604/sf
52
70
Jun 17
186
$610/sf
56
69
Jun 24
197
$616/sf
56
59
Jul 1
195
$600/sf
58
65
Jul 8
191
$610/sf
58
71
Jul 15
194
$601/sf
58
69
Jul 22
189
$608/sf
58
74
Jul 29
194
$606/sf
60
73
Aug 5
203
$614/sf
61
67
Aug 12
207
$612/sf
64
65
Aug 19
199
$596/sf
64
79
Aug 26
200
$598/sf
64
79
Sep 2
203
$614/sf
62
69
Sep 9
195
$600/sf
66
73
Sep 16
198
$596/sf
66
65
Sep 23
197
$590/sf
68
75
Sep 30
191
$596/sf
68
74
Oct 7
184
$608/sf
70
77
Oct 14
177
$608/sf
61
79
Oct 21
177
$600/sf
62
71
Oct 28
177
$580/sf
61
67
Nov 4
170
$595/sf
62
67
Nov 11
162
$590/sf
66
71
Nov 18
150
$602/sf
69
70
Nov 25
141
$605/sf
69
74
Dec 2
130
$600/sf
69
73
Dec 9
134
$618/sf
65
63
Dec 16
126
$620/sf
70
59
Dec 23
125
$612/sf
77
53
Dec 30
113
$627/sf
79
62

The $2,000,000+ Market (1/1/2018 to 12/23/2019):

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 1
341
$1,021/sf
127
56
Jan 8
356
$1,007/sf
123
49
Jan 15
370
$991/sf
115
48
Jan 22
375
$992/sf
110
47
Jan 29
384
$1,005/sf
109
56
Feb 5
387
$1,005/sf
111
56
Feb 12
379
$1,004/sf
107
63
Feb 19
399
$990/sf
104
69
Feb 26
400
$990/sf
101
75
Mar 5
398
$1,022/sf
97
79
Mar 12
406
$1,017/sf
99
89
Mar 19
430
$1,020/sf
97
79
Mar 26
455
$0/sf
92
71
Apr 2
453
$0/sf
94
67
Apr 9
462
$0/sf
94
66
Apr 16
473
$0/sf
95
66
Apr 23
482
$0/sf
95
70
Apr 30
476
$0/sf
94
74
May 7
486
$0/sf
92
72
May 14
493
$0/sf
91
84
May 21
510
$0/sf
92
79
May 28
504
$0/sf
95
90
Jun 4
488
$0/sf
94
102
Jun 11
502
$0/sf
95
99
Jun 18
524
$0/sf
93
91
Jun 25
525
$0/sf
92
78
Jul 2
516
$0/sf
94
78
Jul 9
519
$0/sf
96
73
Jul 16
521
$0/sf
98
80
Jul 23
539
$0/sf
98
82
Jul 30
550
$0/sf
101
82
Aug 6
544
$0/sf
101
81
Aug 13
556
$0/sf
100
78
Aug 20
562
$0/sf
100
76
Aug 27
552
$0/sf
102
74
Sep 3
541
$0/sf
105
65
Sep 10
543
$0/sf
106
72
Sep 17
550
$0/sf
106
78
Sep 24
545
$0/sf
107
80
Oct 1
528
$0/sf
106
81
Oct 8
523
$0/sf
107
84
Oct 15
523
$0/sf
107
82
Oct 22
528
$0/sf
106
80
Oct 29
523
$0/sf
110
81
Nov 5
505
$0/sf
108
84
Nov 12
503
$0/sf
107
80
Nov 19
500
$0/sf
109
82
Nov 26
502
$0/sf
113
74
Dec 3
489
$0/sf
114
72
Dec 10
498
$0/sf
115
62
Dec 17
473
$0/sf
121
55
Dec 24
443
$1,038/sf
127
52
Dec 31
417
$1,038/sf
132
57
Jan 7
398
$1,083/sf
129
55
Jan 14
402
$1,091/sf
124
58
Jan 21
410
$1,073/sf
123
55
Jan 28
421
$1,087/sf
113
54
Feb 4
428
$1,079/sf
111
58
Feb 11
440
$1,068/sf
109
59
Feb 18
447
$0/sf
107
62
Feb 25
453
$0/sf
106
62
Mar 4
449
$0/sf
102
67
Mar 11
462
$0/sf
100
83
Mar 18
466
$0/sf
102
81
Mar 25
474
$0/sf
98
95
Apr 1
470
$0/sf
99
96
Apr 8
472
$0/sf
99
98
Apr 15
472
$0/sf
99
98
Apr 22
491
$0/sf
96
98
Apr 29
501
$0/sf
97
88
May 6
496
$0/sf
96
95
May 13
507
$0/sf
95
88
May 20
512
$0/sf
95
84
May 27
517
$0/sf
95
91
Jun 3
523
$0/sf
92
85
Jun 10
530
$0/sf
92
85
Jun 17
542
$0/sf
93
93
Jun 24
550
$0/sf
93
89
Jul 1
540
$0/sf
94
89
Jul 8
548
$0/sf
95
95
Jul 15
551
$0/sf
96
99
Jul 22
545
$0/sf
99
96
Jul 29
546
$0/sf
99
95
Aug 5
540
$0/sf
100
89
Aug 12
549
$0/sf
100
91
Aug 19
543
$0/sf
103
91
Aug 26
545
$0/sf
104
80
Sep 2
526
$0/sf
106
79
Sep 9
535
$0/sf
106
76
Sep 16
533
$0/sf
106
84
Sep 23
530
$0/sf
109
86
Sep 30
525
$0/sf
112
86
Oct 7
521
$0/sf
112
82
Oct 14
517
$0/sf
113
80
Oct 21
508
$0/sf
113
76
Oct 28
506
$0/sf
115
76
Nov 4
493
$0/sf
114
73
Nov 11
494
$0/sf
114
70
Nov 18
490
$0/sf
113
63
Nov 25
486
$0/sf
113
68
Dec 2
462
$0/sf
119
69
Dec 9
457
$0/sf
120
64
Dec 16
451
$0/sf
119
59
Dec 23
442
$0/sf
124
59

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019
161
$744/sf
106
33
Jan 6, 2020

The $3,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Dec 30, 2019
267
$1,226/sf
144
28
Jan 6, 2020

Weekly NSDCC New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Pendings
Jan 1, 2018
18
15
Jan 8
89
31
Jan 15
87
43
Jan 22
87
43
Jan 29
81
48
244
Feb 5
77
53
262
Feb 12
74
53
280
Feb 19
89
55
295
Feb 26
87
57
318
Mar 5
84
62
328
Mar 12
107
61
339
Mar 19
88
59
350
Mar 26
99
55
347
Apr 2
87
66
346
Apr 9
106
58
336
Apr 16
98
54
331
Apr 23
108
67
353
Apr 30
98
70
362
May 7
138
68
355
May 14
99
78
386
May 21
115
63
369
May 28
92
84
387
Jun 4
91
77
410
Jun 11
100
56
401
Jun 18
103
54
376
Jun 25
105
54
358
Jul 2
83
78
361
Jul 9
74
50
342
Jul 16
109
83
361
Jul 23
101
54
357
Jul 30
97
67
364
Aug 6
101
60
349
Aug 13
103
54
350
Aug 20
89
58
334
Aug 27
83
46
325
Sep 3
80
59
312
Sep 10
83
46
302
Sep 17
91
53
305
Sep 24
85
41
296
Oct 1
95
47
302
Oct 8
93
55
307
Oct 15
84
40
291
Oct 22
101
51
298
Oct 29
69
55
299
Nov 5
75
49
293
Nov 12
82
43
284
Nov 19
59
42
282
Nov 26
33
27
270
Dec 3
67
45
264
Dec 10
66
37
247
Dec 17
34
37
231
Dec 24
29
37
212
Dec 31
12
20
211
Jan 7, 2019
92
24
203
Jan 14
81
35
205
Jan 21
77
33
196
Jan 28
87
47
217
Feb 4
92
45
233
Feb 11
83
48
255
Feb 18
84
52
263
Feb 25
72
39
261
Mar 4
113
52
267
Mar 11
122
63
284
Mar 18
100
64
302
Mar 25
95
70
324
Apr 1
87
53
331
Apr 8
113
58
342
Apr 15
104
59
341
Apr 22
94
67
353
Apr 29
117
74
367
May 6
113
67
364
May 13
86
48
362
May 20
132
55
357
May 27
100
78
375
Jun 3
109
55
365
Jun 10
106
54
366
Jun 17
94
59
363
Jun 24
97
63
344
Jul 1
89
53
343
Jul 8
81
66
363
Jul 15
115
59
364
Jul 22
89
72
367
Jul 29
102
47
354
Aug 5
102
47
336
Aug 12
96
51
328
Aug 19
89
61
350
Aug 26
86
40
326
Sep 2
67
44
300
Sep 9
75
52
305
Sep 16
102
46
296
Sep 23
67
59
301
Sep 30
68
56
306
Oct 7
76
44
305
Oct 14
78
51
302
Oct 21
71
49
296
Oct 28
76
55
291
Nov 4
87
54
283
Nov 11
61
52
291
Nov 18
69
50
288
Nov 25
60
57
303
Dec 2
19
34
297
Dec 9
58
29
261
Dec 16
45
40
251
Dec 23
32
37
232
Dec 30
16
26
226

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