Bubbleinfo 2018

by | Dec 31, 2018 | About the author, Bubbleinfo Readers, Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market, Klinge Realty | 5 comments

What a year – thanks for being here!

We had twice as many unique users back in the REO days, so I’m glad the 2018 count was fairly steady compared to last year:

2017

2018

Bubbleinfo 2018 blog posts: 974

Bubbleinfo TV JimtheRealtor YouTube videos: 110

Bubbleinfo Plans for 2019:

  • New look for the blog
  • More listings
  • More contests
  • More interviews
  • Documentary-film premiere

I appreciate you being here – stay tuned!

Was There Some Panic in 4Q?

by | Dec 30, 2018 | Contests, Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 2 comments

We’re going to start a contest for Padres tickets in the new year, so let’s get a read on how things wrapped up in 2018.

We know that NSDCC sales were down 10%, and the median SP was up 8%.  Sales of detached homes in San Diego County were down 11%, and the median sales price was up 7%.

If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.

Have there been more listings than usual lately?

NSDCC Listings, 4th Quarter

Year
4th Qtr Listings
Median List Price
Dec. Listings
Median List Price
2013
727
$1,199,000
164
$1,090,000
2014
761
$1,199,000
150
$1,185,000
2015
866
$1,348,500
200
$1,137,450
2016
836
$1,377,500
201
$1,375,000
2017
753
$1,549,900
153
$1,495,000
2018
842
$1,536,900
154
$1,524,000

The other comparisons we’ve done have shown that the 2018 stats have mostly been similar to previous years. But once we have the complete total for new listings, it looks like the 4Q18 number is likely to be at, or above, all of the recent years.  It’s already 12% above last year, and the MLP is actually lower.

There were fewer December listings, but that means the October/November count was higher than ever.  With soggy conditions in place already, did potential sellers this month decide to wait for a 2019 launch?

Will we see a surge of new listings in early 2019?

Unexpected?

by | Dec 28, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions | 2 comments

Expect more “unexpected” data, and constant Yunnie cheerleading in 2019:

Contracts to buy previously owned homes fell unexpectedly in November, the National Association of Realtors said on Friday, the latest sign of weakness in the U.S. housing market.

The NAR’s pending home sales index decreased 0.7 percent from the prior month to 101.4. October’s index was unrevised.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast pending home sales to rise 0.7 percent last month.

Pending home contracts are seen as a forward-looking indicator of the health of the housing market because they become sales one to two months later.

Compared to one year ago, pending sales were down 7.7 percent in November, the eleventh straight year-over-year drop.

The housing market has been constrained by higher mortgage rates as well as land and labor shortages, which have led to tight inventory. Though house price inflation has slowed significantly, it continues to outpace wage growth, sidelining some first-time homebuyers.

The NAR previously reported that home resales rose in November, but recorded their biggest annual decline in 7-1/2 years.

Groundbreaking for new homes also rebounded in November, but completions on single-family homes fell for a third straight month to their lowest level in more than a year.

Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement on Friday that the pending home sales data was not yet reflecting recent favorable mortgage rate conditions.

Link to Article

2019 Forecasts

by | Dec 27, 2018 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 2 comments

We are wrapping up another year, and have eyes on 2019!

Here are guesses from the more prominent real estate prognosticators:

  • National Association of Realtors: Sales +1%, prices +3.1%.
  • Realtor.com: Sales -2%, Median SP +2.2%.
  • California Association of Realtors: Sales -3.3%, CA Median SP +3.1%.
  • KW: Sales -2%

The opinions are fairly universal throughout the industry.  Sales might be down a little, and prices up a little.

But I’m sticking with -20% for NSDCC sales, which by comparison, sounds catastrophic.  We only had a 10% decline this year and everyone was reaching for the panic button, so if it happens, it will feel uncomfortable for most. But the inventory will be there, it just means more of it won’t be selling.

Here is the data for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
# of Sales
Median SP
MSP YoY %chg
2012
4,416
$979,990
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
4,818
$1,168,445
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
4,692
$1,247,923
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
5,068
$1,295,000
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
5,171
$1,395,000
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
4,630
$1,450,000
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
2018
4,802
$1,498,500
2,760
$1,325,000
+8%

Additional inventory is encouraged….up to a point.

In 2006, the inventory ballooned to 6,046 listings, which was 9% higher than the previous year’s count. The surge in new listings set buyers back on the their heels, and sales plunged 13% in 2006 compared to 2005.

The 2018 counts above are today’s numbers, so a few more will be added.  Using these numbers, listings are up 3% YoY, and sales are down 11%, YoY.

The median sales price is +8% YoY, but that’s for the whole year.  We saw the October Case-Shiller Index be up only 3% YoY, so pricing is decelerating.

The stock market crashed 635 points on Monday, only to go up 1,086 yesterday – and yet the 30-year jumbo rate hasn’t budged (still at 4.41%).

Pricing might drop a little, but the sales go first, so I think we won’t see much change in the NSDCC median sales price in 2019.

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