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We are wrapping up another year, and have eyes on 2019!

Here are guesses from the more prominent real estate prognosticators:

  • National Association of Realtors: Sales +1%, prices +3.1%.
  • Realtor.com: Sales -2%, Median SP +2.2%.
  • California Association of Realtors: Sales -3.3%, CA Median SP +3.1%.
  • KW: Sales -2%

The opinions are fairly universal throughout the industry.  Sales might be down a little, and prices up a little.

But I’m sticking with -20% for NSDCC sales, which by comparison, sounds catastrophic.  We only had a 10% decline this year and everyone was reaching for the panic button, so if it happens, it will feel uncomfortable for most. But the inventory will be there, it just means more of it won’t be selling.

Here is the data for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
# of Sales
Median SP
MSP YoY %chg
2012
4,416
$979,990
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
4,818
$1,168,445
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
4,692
$1,247,923
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
5,068
$1,295,000
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
5,171
$1,395,000
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
4,630
$1,450,000
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
2018
4,802
$1,498,500
2,760
$1,325,000
+8%

Additional inventory is encouraged….up to a point.

In 2006, the inventory ballooned to 6,046 listings, which was 9% higher than the previous year’s count. The surge in new listings set buyers back on the their heels, and sales plunged 13% in 2006 compared to 2005.

The 2018 counts above are today’s numbers, so a few more will be added.  Using these numbers, listings are up 3% YoY, and sales are down 11%, YoY.

The median sales price is +8% YoY, but that’s for the whole year.  We saw the October Case-Shiller Index be up only 3% YoY, so pricing is decelerating.

The stock market crashed 635 points on Monday, only to go up 1,086 yesterday – and yet the 30-year jumbo rate hasn’t budged (still at 4.41%).

Pricing might drop a little, but the sales go first, so I think we won’t see much change in the NSDCC median sales price in 2019.

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