2019 Forecasts

by | Dec 27, 2018 | Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal | 2 comments

We are wrapping up another year, and have eyes on 2019!

Here are guesses from the more prominent real estate prognosticators:

  • National Association of Realtors: Sales +1%, prices +3.1%.
  • Realtor.com: Sales -2%, Median SP +2.2%.
  • California Association of Realtors: Sales -3.3%, CA Median SP +3.1%.
  • KW: Sales -2%

The opinions are fairly universal throughout the industry.  Sales might be down a little, and prices up a little.

But I’m sticking with -20% for NSDCC sales, which by comparison, sounds catastrophic.  We only had a 10% decline this year and everyone was reaching for the panic button, so if it happens, it will feel uncomfortable for most. But the inventory will be there, it just means more of it won’t be selling.

Here is the data for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

Year
# of Listings
Median LP
# of Sales
Median SP
MSP YoY %chg
2012
4,416
$979,990
3,154
$830,000
+1%
2013
4,818
$1,168,445
3,218
$952,250
+15%
2014
4,692
$1,247,923
2,850
$1,025,000
+8%
2015
5,068
$1,295,000
3,079
$1,090,000
+6%
2016
5,171
$1,395,000
3,103
$1,160,000
+6%
2017
4,630
$1,450,000
3,084
$1,225,000
+6%
2018
4,802
$1,498,500
2,760
$1,325,000
+8%

Additional inventory is encouraged….up to a point.

In 2006, the inventory ballooned to 6,046 listings, which was 9% higher than the previous year’s count. The surge in new listings set buyers back on the their heels, and sales plunged 13% in 2006 compared to 2005.

The 2018 counts above are today’s numbers, so a few more will be added.  Using these numbers, listings are up 3% YoY, and sales are down 11%, YoY.

The median sales price is +8% YoY, but that’s for the whole year.  We saw the October Case-Shiller Index be up only 3% YoY, so pricing is decelerating.

The stock market crashed 635 points on Monday, only to go up 1,086 yesterday – and yet the 30-year jumbo rate hasn’t budged (still at 4.41%).

Pricing might drop a little, but the sales go first, so I think we won’t see much change in the NSDCC median sales price in 2019.

2 Comments

  1. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 27, 2018 at 5:41 am

    The CAR forecast for 2018 was +1% for sales, and they are projected to be -3.2%.

    So their -3.3% for next year might be optimistic too.

  2. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 27, 2018 at 6:04 am

    It won’t be catastrophic for sellers – either they sell now for what a ready, willing, and able buyer will pay, or they won’t, and try another day.

    It happened to me twice this year. I procured what seemed to be fair offers, all considered, but two different sellers let outside influences affect their decision and decided that prices would go up forever, and to rent instead.

    With rents so high, and mortgage payments so low, you can’t blame them. More will elect to go that direction this year.

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