After declining four out of the last five months, the Case-Shiller Index for San Diego rose in January by 0.71%. The year-over-year change was 5.1%, which is pretty hefty considering how high prices already were at the beginning of 2014.
Dave rains on the parade, as usual:
“Despite price gains, the housing market faces some difficulties. Home prices are rising roughly twice as fast as wages, putting pressure on potential homebuyers and heightening the risk that any uptick in interest rates could be a major setback,” said David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.
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On top of today’s announcement that February pendings were up 3.1%, our local NSDCC market has kicked it up a notch lately. We had 84 new pendings last week, and 81 this week – we averaged 60 per week in February!
Click on the link below for the complete NSDCC active-inventory data:
Stop me if this sounds familiar: You scour MLS for the semi that will rescue you from a life in a high-rise. Mortgage pre-approval in place, you bid well above asking, because you live in Toronto and that’s how it works. The selling agent comes back and says there’s another stronger bid, and couldn’t you do a bit more? You swallow hard and cough up another $10,000, sealing the deal, and only later wondering if there really was a competing offer in the first place.
The month of March is wrapping up next week, and we’re heading into the Easter/Spring Break period. Local buyers who might take some time off will be offset by the out-of-towners coming in for a look.
The market seems very balanced currently, and our ‘market health’ gauge is supportive.
Historically, we’ve called it a healthy market when Active Listings-to-Pendings have been at a 2:1 ratio, and here’s the count today in North SD County’s coastal region:
Ratio = 1:78:1
It’s the lower end of the market that is really hot. Of the 440 pendings, 71% of them are listed under $1,500,000.
Only 37% of the actives are priced under $1,500,000!
While there has been a steady flow of new pendings, I haven’t seen many that were a surprise. I think buyers are being patient, and are hoping that there will be better offerings later – much like sellers are hoping there will be higher-payers later.
Mortgage rates are holding steady too, which means April could be the month that those buyers and sellers who are in tip-toe mode come closer together!
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