Train Noise
People were asking about the train noise at our new listing on Vulcan in Encinitas. Here is a sampling:
Unrepresented Buyer Form
While management believes that buyer-agents will adapt and the implementation of the buyer-broker agreement will happen over the next few months, I have my doubts. It’s more likely that buyers will resist paying 2% to 3% to their agent, unless they are convinced that they can Get Good Help.
Without having to commit to paying anything to buyer-agents up front, sellers will choose to pay less or zero once an offer is submitted, and their listing agents will just let it go and just be thankful that they will be getting paid.
Buyer-agents will either have to accept the peanuts the sellers will be paying (0.5% to 1.5%), and/or talk their buyers into paying the rest. Or they will ‘retire’, which sounds groovy to the agents who are 50+.
Left in the rubble will be home buyers who are mastering the matterports, and listing agents who desperately want buyers to come to them direct.
The form above will be the gateway drug to the future.
It will be used as a defense mechanism by listing agents who resist giving any of their commission to the buyers (who are thinking they deserve a bonus for coming direct).
“Yes, come direct to the listing agent so you don’t have to pay a commission”, and once you get here then sign this form and be unrepresented. Everyone saves!
If commissions are less, agents will want to do less. For those agents who already don’t do much, it will be a struggle – but they will find a way!
They aren’t going to step up and justify why every buyer deserves good representation.
Instead, they will do nothing for you. Sign the form above and good luck getting to the finish line!
In a marketplace where the stakes are rising every day, there will be a growing trend of getting less help – and virtually no Good Help available unless buyers want to pay for it themselves.
Best of the Foothills
I couldn’t be more excited about presenting this spectacular home for sale – mostly just to see if everyone likes it as much as we do. It’s not big enough to have wasted space – but I’d rather have 3,003sf of efficient floor plan than 4,000sf full of extra rooms that nobody uses.
3711 Mastodon Ct., Carlsbad
4 br + loft/4.5 ba, 3,003sf
YB: 2015
HOA + MR = $333/mo.
LP = $2,499,000
Have you said to yourself, “I’ll know it when I see it”? This is one of those homes! Downstairs is one big great room with large windows ensuring max natural light! Gorgeous hardwoods, chef’s island with seating, La Cantina doors that open to a large private patio with views, owned solar, plus a separate ADU too! This home has all of the top features people want – last house on the culdesac, only one neighbor, big views (10% view premium when new), privacy, perfect great room, two walk-in closets in primary suite, extra loft upstairs that is a possible 5br, plenty of natural light, and HOA amenities close by! Walking distance to Sage Creek High School too, which is ranked #8 in San Diego County! This home is an oasis of tranquility!
https://www.compass.com/listing/3711-mastodon-court-carlsbad-ca-92010/1577636919993877481/
Open 12-3pm on Saturday May 18th and 12-2pm on Sunday May 19th.
David Sanborn
David Sanborn died on Sunday. I didn’t know him or his music much but he was a well-known player over the last few decades. He was planning on touring next year, but succumbed to prostate cancer.
Filmed on December 14, 1998 at Unitel Studios, New York City for broadcast on ABC-TV (U.S.) in the early hours of 1 January 1999 as “After New Year’s Eve”. Released in Japan only in 1999.
David William Sanborn (born July 30, 1945) is an American alto saxophonist. Though #DavidSanborn has worked in many genres, his solo recordings typically blend #jazz with instrumental pop and R&B. He released his first solo album Taking Off in 1975, but has been playing the saxophone since before he was in high school.
One of the most commercially successful American saxophonists to earn prominence since the 1980s, Sanborn is described by critic Scott Yannow as “the most influential saxophonist on pop, R&B, and crossover players of the past 20 years.” He is often identified with radio-friendly #smoothjazz, but he has expressed a disinclination for the genre and his association with it.
Under 7%!
We’re breathing again!
If it feels like we’ve been harping on the prospects for rate volatility in response to today’s inflation data for several weeks (and we have), today is why. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the biggest reliable source of momentum for interest rates when it comes to scheduled data–big enough that the results can come in right in line with forecasts and still have a big impact.
Indeed, today’s results were right in line with forecasts. In month over month terms, core inflation was 0.3% and annual inflation was 3.6%. The Fed wants those numbers at 0.1-0.2 in monthly terms and 2.0% annually in order to be more confident about rate cuts. The annual number wouldn’t need to hit 2.0% as long as monthly numbers suggested we were well on our way.
And again, today’s monthly number only suggested 3.6% (0.3 x 12). Despite being almost twice as brisk as desired, the 0.3% rate of monthly core inflation was apparently a relief for bond traders who quickly began pushing rates lower. Mortgage rates are based on mortgage-specific bonds that correlate substantially with US Treasuries.
Other economic data helped the cause with Retail Sales coming in unchanged for April versus forecasts calling for a 0.4% increase. Taken together, the as-expected inflation data and weaker retail sales suggest cooler inflation pressure relative to Q1’s data–something all fans of low rates were hoping to see.
Mortgage Lenders were able to drop their average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate to 6.99% from 7.11% yesterday.
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05152024
Frenzy Monitor
This chart shows identifies the hot spots, and not-so-hot spots, as compared to last year. Southeast Carlsbad and Carmel Valley both have substantially more pendings this year, and NW Carlsbad and Encinitas have roughly double the number of actives and where potential gluts might be forming.
Overall, there are 25% more active listings, and 21% more pending listings – so much of the additional inventory is getting soaked up.
Pricing is about the same as last year:
NSDCC Median List Price of Active Listings
May 15, 2023: $3,749,400
May 15, 2024: $3,895,000
NSDCC Median Sales Price in May
2023: $2,362,500 (178 sales)
2024: $2,310,000 (68 sales so far)
After last month’s eye-popping 200 sales, there was some hope that this month would be equally productive. But it looks like we’ll be fortunate to match last May’s count.
Negotiating Commission With Offer
Everyone thinks that commissions will be negotiated with the offer. On the surface, it seems like a reasonable solution, but it will depend on whether the listing agent will stand up for their fellow agents getting paid, or wimp out and hide behind the seller.
The conversations will go like this:
Listing Agent: We finally got an offer on your $3,000,000 home!
Seller: How much?
Listing Agent: $2,900,000!
Seller: LOWBALLER!
Listing Agent: Well, we’ve been on the market for two months so buyers tend to come in lower.
Seller: Counter $2,980,000. I’ll pay his 2.5% commission at that price.
Listing Agent: Ok, I did that and they countered $2,950,000.
Seller: That’s ridiculous. But I’ll take it and penalize the agent instead. Pay him 1%.
Listing Agent: Good idea – you actually come out with MORE money that way!
Listing Agent to Buyer Agent: You got your price!
Buyer Agent: But I got screwed on the commission!
Listing Agent: Sorry, dude, but the seller insisted. Get it from your buyer!
Will agents stand up for one another? It’s doubtful, especially when ‘negotiating the commission with the offer’ literally means the commission paid by the seller could be anything, including zero.
Until the end of July, the commission rate offered by the listing agent in the MLS is set – the listing agent doesn’t get to change it later, which is a great relief to the buyer-agents.
But after July, the burden is going to be on the buyers to pay their agent’s commission too. Higher prices, higher rates, substantially more closing costs, and unrelenting sellers…..how much more can they take?
Inventory Watch
With the pendings count being flat for the last eight weeks, it means there have been as many new escrows as closings. It’s when the pendings count starts to fade that we will know the sales machine is breaking down, and there might be trouble ahead.
There has been a steady flow of new NSDCC listings hit the market (40-60 per week in 2024) which has to be encouraging for buyers. Not only are there more homes to consider, but it could also mean that it’s a little more likely that a glut could form and put some pressure on pricing. But it’s not happening yet – the number of actives has flattened out too.
Happy Mother’s Day!
The Latin America leg of the worldwide Karol G tour wrapped up in Brazil on Friday night, just in time for Natalie to make it home for Mother’s Day! Here are highlights from the show in Lima Peru:
Where Natalie as been, all while working full-time for us!
Feb 8,9,&10: Mexico City
Feb 16 &17: Monterrey, Mexico
Feb 23 & 24: Guadalajara, Mexico
Mar 1 & 2: Guatemala City, Gautemala
Mar 9 & 10: San Jose, Costa Rica
Mar 15 & 16: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Mar 22 & 23: Caracas, Venezuela
Apr 5 & 6: Bogota, Columbia
Apr 12 & 13: Lima, Peru
Apr 19, 20 & 21: Santiago, Chile
Apr 26 & 27: Buenos Aires, Argentina
May 2: Asuncion, Paraguay
May 10: Sao Paulo, Brazil
What an experience!
Millions of Millionaires
How does our local market keep going?
There are a lot of affluent people nearby who consider moving to San Diego as an upgrade!
Jim Klinge
Klinge Realty Group
Broker-Associate, Compass
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home?
Contact Jim the Realtor!
- 682 S. Coast Hwy 101, Suite #110
Encinitas, CA 92024 - (858) 997-3801 call or text
- klingerealty@gmail.com
CA DRE #01527365, CA DRE #00873197
