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A view of the eastbound 56 freeway, then turn north on I-5 at 5:30 in the afternoon:

We’ve been talking about how the quality of schools are critical to the homebuying equation.  Here are the local public high schools, sorted by their totals of four scores from www.greatschools.net:

While it used to be that Torrey Pines had an edge on others around the county, it is remarkable how similar the scores are among the top five schools. I think you also have to hand it to San Marcos HS for making the strides they’ve made too.

With the scores bunching together, how else do you decide? The greatschools website has remarks from parents and students, but you never know what agenda they might be pushing.

P.S. Catholic schools do the same testing, but refuse to release their scores – but the website has testimonials on CCHS, and not all are flattering.

This simulation is posted on a website opposing I-5 expansion.

The freeway traffic in this area (which has seen marked improvement over the last few months since the last project was completed) deters some people from thinking about living further north.

Could a new interchange help real estate values in Encinitas/Carlsbad?

Find more videos like this on Smart Freeway Planning

This two-part video is intended to be an instructional piece on exploring the alternatives to short-selling.  If you come here for the entertainment, you’ll be disappointed – this is only one-person’s dry examination of the facts pertaining to their situation. 

The fairly extreme nature of this case helps magnify how important it is to carefully consider all parts of your puzzle.  Others who are over-encumbered and feel trapped can plug in their own numbers, and decide for themselves if it is worth it to stay or sell:

Part One:

Part Two:

This article from bankrate.com has several good tips for homebuyers:

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/real-estate/when-dream-house-becomes-horror-home.aspx

To summarize the article - when buying a home, you should consider:

• Location – #1
• Schools  – http://www.greatschools.org/
• HOA – solvent? controlling?
• Zoning – changes nearby?
• Crime report  – http://arjis.org/
• Walkability – shops nearby?
• Neighbors – too many vehicles?
• Foreclosures – nearby? headlines?
• Sex-offenders -  http://www.meganslaw.ca.gov/
• Social activity - too little or too much?
• Garage bands
• Barking dogs
• Speeding cars/traffic
• Trains/highways
• Landfill, smells
• Talk to neighbors
• Visit at different times of the day
• Talk to nearby shop owners
• Talk to mailmen/local police officers

An excerpt:

“To avoid potential short-term value depression, potential buyers should check local foreclosure rolls for an excess of pending defaulters in a neighborhood”, says Jim Klinge, owner of Klinge Realty in San Diego. But foreclosures aren’t always a stigma. Whether foreclosure buyers are investors or owner-occupiers, “they’re coming in solvent enough to qualify for full mortgages,” he says. “They’re also fixing up houses in disrepair and are usually smart landlords.” One big “must” for every buyer, says Klinge, is to check local sex-offender lists. “It’s a bummer when you find out later that the guy across the street is a peeper.”

OCRenter sends his well wishes for a happy new year:

For those in Jim’s readership that do not know me, a quick introduction. I’m OCRenter, a former blogger that ran the now dormant “Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking” blog. The blog lasted a little over 3 years from late 2005 to early 2009, initially tracking inventory of homes for sale, then progressing to uncovering mortgage fraud stories and documenting knife catchers. The blog was a refuge for the “lifetime renters” that were “forever shut out of homeownership.”

Real estate cheerleaders labeled the blog “permabear.” But remember, there’s nothing the price can’t fix. A year ago, this “permabear” became one of those “homedebtors.”

Home shopping circa late 2008-2009 was in essence buying in the midst of chaos. But chaos also meant opportunities. Jim has seen the house, and he agreed that it was a fantastic opportunity. The house was purchased during the credit freeze, and some say its price point was to be never replicated again.

But it has, over and over in many fine neighborhoods across the land. I may not be blogging, but I continue to track home closings. And boy have I seen some fantastic deals that were made this past year. In fact, within my neighborhood, I’ve seen purchases of similar homes within a couple of months of each other that differed by $500-600k in price.

So how do you make sure you end up on the right end of these bipolar price points?

Adherence to the principle of “the price point of one.” This simply means although the general $/sqft in your target neighborhoods may be $300/sqft, you stick to your price point +/- 5-10%. Because quite frankly, screw the general $/sqft of the neighborhood, you just need that one house to hit your goal.

Find the price point that is reasonable and stick to it, and open yourself to multiple strategies. Realize that if an opportunity comes up within 10% of your price point, it may very well be worth your while to jump even though you may suffer from a minor knife catching scar.

My general feel for 2010 is continued chaos, with the general pricing staying relatively the same as last year. Flexibility remains the most important virtue when it comes to taking advantage of the ongoing chaos in the marketplace. Don’t corner yourself to one street, one neighborhood, or one zipcode (yes, this is directed at 92130). Don’t marry yourself to the idea that you got to have a new home, or an old one. Be open to possibilities, with limits, of course.

Lastly, I am a firm believer in Karma. And ’tis the season to take advantage of a contractor (a non-Jim the Realtor certified one that is). A lot of these guys were making money hand over fist during the boom years. What I’ve seen so far is everything from inside and out, follow the “50% off from peak year pricing” principle.

Happy Hunting and Happy New Year,

OCRenter

Welcome back, I hope you had a great Christmas!

I’m looking forward to 2010, more so than any other year. 

Why?

Because I’m convinced that people want the truth, we’re going to keep serving it up here at bubbleinfo.com.  Taking the high road is wrought with challenges however, primarily when trying to sell short sales and REOs.  There aren’t any rules or regulations on how the deal with these, so listing agents make them up as they go along.

When I write an offer on a short sale, I call the listing agent first, looking to get his commitment – if I can narrow down the target, it’s easier to hit.

Example:  Two weeks ago I had a listing agent agree that if my buyer was willing to write an all-cash offer at the price specified by the listing agent, he would have his sellers sign it, and submit it to the bank - let’s call it a pre-negotiated deal. 

It’s not easy getting listing agents to commit on short sales; when there are no rules, they like to play around.  Sure enough, we submit the offer as agreed, but two weeks go by and he’s not calling back, not responding to emails, etc. – the usual ploy. 

I finally caught him on Wednesday, and he said that he’s giving a female agent more time to try and sell this seven-figure property because he got the feeling that he might be able to score with her – and I’m not talking Chargers’ touchdowns here.

While he was probably joking (hopefully?), it’s another of hundreds of examples I could give you about how difficult it is to buy a house in this environment.

What am I doing about increasing your odds of buying?

1.  Numbers game- You need to see a lot of homes – the vast majority are priced wrong, and the few that have a decent price are hotly contested.  It’s likely that you’ll lose a few to other offerees, or to the condition of the house.  In 2009, we had a number of accepted offers cancel due to the property’s condition after a thorough inspection.

The addition of Richard Morgan to the team this year brought an added dimension to our ability to show more properties, and between us we’ll make sure that we can meet you at any house, any time – no problem.

2.  Selling your offer - It is imperative that I submit a compelling case to the listing agent on why he should take my deal.  Any quality property that’s listed for an attractive price is going to have competing offers, and ours has to stand out.   

3.  Trustee sales - My primary goal in 2010 is to be able to offer trustee sales to my buyers.  It won’t be for everyone due to the risks, but having more homes to consider will be helpful in this low-inventory environment.

4.  Keep bubbleinfo running- One of the agents on the board of realtors told me the other day that he thought bubbleinfo.com was unethical. 

It would be unethical if I didn’t do this website - I know critical facts about the market, and feel compelled to disclose them.  I think I have tempered the presentation here to comply with the Sandicor MLS rules and regs, and conduct a free educational experience here which can benefit consumers and agents alike.  But I realize that there will be more people gunning for me than ever in 2010 – but I plan to endure.

How I intend to expand bubbleinfo.com:

A.  More interactive opportunities – the pizza and beer party should happen at least a couple of times per year, and I’d like to do more blog talk radio if I can keep the call-in costs down to participants.

B.  More personal interviews on video, like the series with Adam on trustee sales.

C.  Show more of the intricate details of selling real estate on video.

D.  Tell more stories.

I am always interested in what you’d like to see here – ideas are welcome!

Here’s a good example of how important it is for sellers to have a top-notch photo presentation of their house for sale.

Buyers are looking for any reason NOT to buy.  If they aren’t in love with the house from the photos, once they drive up and see this, they won’t get out of the car:

He paid $650,000 in 2005, I told him $429,000 (-34%).

The internet has magnified our quest for instant gratification.

In real estate, the internet helps to stir up a frenzy by allowing a potential home buyer to search for an attractive property – and when they see a hot one, they’ll look into it. But by the time they react, it’s already sold. Buyers learn to react faster and faster, and after missing one or two good ones they’re on the edge of their seat, checking for new meat every few minutes!

Here’s more:

Who cares where the market has been, where is it going??

How do you know if the market is going up or down? Better or Worse?

Monitor specific listings in your area.  Rate each listing based on how well the list price reflects the value (and eventual SP).   

Does the list price incite urgency? 

Did you grab for your checkbook?

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Early in my career I learned to use this sophisticated organizational system to assist with tracking – I put each listing in one of these three categories:

1. Hot Buy

2. Warmed-Over Turd

3. Dog, Barks at Traffic

Try this at home!  You’ll see that using these categories will help!

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How fast they go pending can give you a clue about the sales price:

First 10 days = list price or higher

11-30 days = within 5% of list price

30+ days = at least 5% to 10% off list

We’ll follow a few listings to help gauge the market’s direction in the fourth quarter – here’s a youtube tour of the first set: