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Category Archive: ‘Market Buzz’

Housing Jitters

The economists like the housing market, but they are known to play it safe.

How about the consumers?

I’d prefer to survey the active home buyers and sellers in our area to get the best reading on our future.  But here are the sentiments of 1,079 American adults over the age of 18 who were surveyed last month:

Fifty-eight percent of homeowners say that they expect there will be a “housing bubble and a price correction” in the next two years – up 12 percentage points since April.

Looking across the country, residents in hot housing states are particularly jittery. The top five states where residents believe the market is approaching a “housing bubble” include:

  1. Washington (71 percent)
  2. New York (68 percent)
  3. Florida (63 percent)
  4. California (59 percent)
  5. Texas (58 percent)

While experts have long suggested living in a home for more than seven years could lower a homebuyer’s exposure to market fluctuations, only 37 percent of millennials in the survey plan to live in next home they buy for more than six years, making the so-called “rule of seven” less relevant to the next generation of serial homebuyers.

“Beyond the jitters, I see in our survey an increasingly informed nation of homebuyers, who understand the risk of the market,” said Melendez. “To those concerned about a price correction, or waiting to time the market, I recommend a proactive approach. Have an exit plan, then anytime you find a home you love is a good time to buy.”

Read full article here:

LINK

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Posted by on Aug 17, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Market Conditions, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 7 comments

10% Risk of Correction in U.S.

New research from JPMorgan examining historic data found that the risk of a dramatic decline in prices is low, despite current fears of a correction in the U.S. and Canada.

Using data from 14 developed countries dating back to 1950, JPMorgan’s research found that sharp price corrections have been relatively uncommon, even following large price increases.

“The data show that sustained increases in real house prices have been the norm rather than the exception in the post-World War II era, as rising populations and incomes have pushed up land prices,” Jesse Edgerton, U.S. analyst from the investment bank’s economic and policy research team, said in the report entitled “Quantifying housing correction risk in Canada and the U.S.,” published late Tuesday.

“Of course, there have been occasional large price declines over multi-year periods, as we saw starting in 2006 in the U.S. But such declines have not been common, even after periods of rising prices,” he said, adding that the chance of a decline in prices was low.

“Simple models based on these data put the chance of a 20 percent decline in real prices within the next five years (roughly equivalent to a 10 percent decline in nominal prices) at about 20 percent in Canada and 10 percent in the U.S.

Read full article here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/26/jpmorgan-points-to-low-risk-of-a-us-housing-correction.html

Posted by on Aug 4, 2017 in Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz | 0 comments

Four or Five More Years

An excerpt from this article:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices-20170725-story.html

Home prices have now been rising for more than five years, the result of a growing economy, rock-bottom mortgage rates and a shortage of homes on the market.  Economists said that absent a recession or a surge in mortgage rates, California home prices could keep climbing at 5% a year for the foreseeable future.

That’s faster than the long-term average of 3% nationwide, but it’s difficult to build housing in California and the economy is strong, said Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.

“It could go on for another four or five years,” he said.

CoreLogic’s report showed that home prices in Southern California rose in every county last month compared to a year earlier, not just in Orange and Los Angeles counties.

In San Bernardino County, the median was up 12.3% to $320,000; in Riverside County, 7.5% to $357,000; in Ventura County, 2.7% to $565,000; and in San Diego County, 9.8% to $543,500. Across the region, sales rose 4.3%.

Chris Thornberg, founding partner of Beacon Economics, said he doesn’t expect a recession and thus doesn’t foresee a time when home prices stop rising.

“Candidly, the only thing that could upset the apple cart in California is if we build a whole bunch of housing and that’s as likely as an alien attack.”

Posted by on Jul 27, 2017 in Forecasts, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Sales and Price Check | 0 comments

Statewide Community Infrastructure Program

The Statewide Community Infrastructure Program (SCIP) sounds like another name for 30-year Mello-Roos-type bonds whose proceeds are used to pay for things that governments or home builders used to cover.

Here is their intro:

The Mello-Roos at this Carmel Valley new tract is $2,932.90 per year, plus the Statewide Communities Infrastructure Program requires another $4,300 per year (total = $7,232.90 or about $603 per month):

Posted by on Jul 7, 2017 in Bubbleinfo TV, Builders, Carmel Valley, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Mello-Roos | 5 comments

Fed Raises, Mortgage Rates Drop

Rates are under 4.0%, no points! From MND:

Mortgage rates fell convincingly today, though not all lenders adjusted rates sheets in proportion to the gains seen in bond markets (which underlie rate movement).  Those gains came early, with this morning’s economic data coming in much weaker than expected.  Markets were especially sensitive to the Consumer Price Index (an inflation report) which showed core annual inflation at 1.7% versus a median forecast of 1.9%.

Core annual inflation under 2.0% is a hot topic–especially today–considering that’s one of the Fed’s main goals.  This afternoon’s Fed Announcement did acknowledge the recent drop in inflation, but continued to suggest it was being held down by temporary factors.  The Fed also officially unveiled its framework for decreasing the amount of bonds its buying (though it didn’t announce a start to the program yet).

Bottom line: Fed bond buying is one of the reasons rates are as low as they are.  Markets know the Fed will eventually enact this plan and they’ve accounted for that to the best of their ability.  But as the Fed actually goes through the steps toward enacting the plan, it causes some upward pressure for rates.  That was the case this afternoon, but bond markets were nonetheless able to hold on to a majority of improvement seen this morning.  As such, the day ended with most lenders offering their lowest rates in exactly 8 months (a few days following the presidential election).

Posted by on Jun 14, 2017 in Interest Rates/Loan Limits, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Mortgage News, Mortgage Qualifying | 0 comments

Subprime is Back

John South of Drop Mortgage and George Flint of Triumph Capital wait for waves off Encinitas. The group of mortgage industry professionals meet weekly on the beach for a morning surf before work.

From the wsj.com

An excerpt:

Lenders say there is an untapped market among borrowers with good credit scores like self-employed workers who don’t have proper income documentation, or for responsibly made loans to borrowers with credit problems that have had bankruptcies in the past or had to sell their home for less than it was worth.

If they are successful in recruiting brokers, lenders believe the market potential for both types of loans could reach $200 billion annually.

A big hurdle: finding the right kind of brokers and instructing them in the lost art of making a subprime loan. Some are returning to the industry for the first time since the crisis. Others like Mr. Boyd have never been in it.

“I knew a mortgage was a loan for a house,” said Mr. Boyd, who was recruited by his boss, Jon Maddux, after selling him a Calvin Klein suit at a local outdoor mall. “I came in just a blank slate.”

Before he co-founded Drop Mortgage, the parent company of FundLoans, in 2014, Mr. Maddux ran the website YouWalkAway.com between 2008 and 2012. The site charged homeowners on the brink of foreclosure $995 to learn how to leave their debt behind.

Mr. Maddux said his experience advising down-and-out homeowners is today helping him pitch them loan products. Drop Mortgage and FundLoans made about $200 million in subprime and alternative documentation loans in 2016, funding them by selling them to hedge funds and other Wall Street investors.

“I’ve seen what caused these people to walk away and I don’t want to be a part of that,” he said.

Subprime mortgages are typically made to borrowers with a credit score of around 660 or lower, at interest rates ranging from 6% to 10%. Alternative documentation loans, or Alt-A loans, are made to borrowers with higher credit scores but who use bank statements or other less conventional ways to prove their income.

Read full article here:

LINK

Posted by on Jun 14, 2017 in Encinitas, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, Mortgage Qualifying, Sellers Waiting For Comeback, Strategic Defaults | 4 comments