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These guys aren’t as famous as Case-Shiller yet, but they employ a similar tracking of same-house repeat sales around the country (they have 45 million observations on file!).
Here are the changes in their HPI year-over-year for the San Diego County single-family detached properties - as a county, it looks like we gave back most of what was gained since early 2009:
More from C-L on the delinquent mortgages – can we work our way out of this?
We are hitting the peak months of resets/recasts, yet delinquencies are dropping?
The banks/servicers must be working feverishly to reset/recast the expected $1.6 trillion in ARMs, or just not reporting lates? When this is all done, will anyone be surprised that a whole lot of people got a whole lot of free rent?
(Click on this image to enlarge)
Earl had this listed in the high-$600,000s, but after almost five months and no sale, the bank re-assigned it to another agent, and lowered the price.
Will having only 3 bedrooms, no yard, lots of stairs and backing to the street force the price down further? Is this an example of how the general buyer malaise has more affect on the inferior properties?
From HW:
What double dip?
House prices in the United States are reaching new levels of volatility, defying trendy labeling.
Tuesday news from Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index found the average price of a single-family home reached a new low in the first quarter and is now at 2002 levels.
However, mortgage data tracker and industry service provider CoreLogic found Wednesday the average national price for a home increased a marginal 0.7% from March to April. It is the first increase since the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit in mid-2010, CoreLogic notes. Last month, the home price index from CoreLogic posted a decline of nearly 6%.
The CoreLogic year-over-year number, however, resembles the negative findings of the S&P index. National home prices, including distressed sales, declined by 7.5% in April 2011 compared to April 2010. Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 0.5% in April 2011 compared to April 2010.
“While the economic recovery is still fragile and one data point is not a trend, the month-over-month increase based on April sales activity is a positive sign. This is the first month-over-month increase in the HPI since government support for home buying was removed, and it provides reason for cautious optimism,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
Even more notable is the top states that saw home price appreciation are outstripped by the massive declines seen in the top five declining markets.
Overall, the five areas with the highest appreciation were: North Dakota (+4.2%), Vermont (+3.4%), New York (+3.2%), Washington D.C. (+2.2%) and Mississippi (+1.4%). The five states with the greatest depreciation were: Idaho (-15.2%), Michigan (-13.2%), Arizona (-11.9%), Rhode Island (-11.6%) and Nevada (-11.4%).
California’s 12-month HPI was -5.4%, but excluding distressed sales it was +1.2%.
From the FT.com:
Bank of America plans to shrink its $850bn portfolio of troubled home loans by about half over the next three years as it seeks to quicken the pace with which it resolves problems related to the housing crisis and its disastrous purchase of Countrywide Financial.
Terry Laughlin, who is spearheading BofA’s mortgage modification and foreclosure programs, told the Financial Times he had been given leeway to act quickly to tackle the growing number of bad loans that threaten to overwhelm the bank’s overall performance and tarnish the reputation of Brian Moynihan, its chief executive.
This year BofA hived off its problem loans into a “legacy” unit that Mr Laughlin runs, leaving the “good” mortgages in a separate division headed by Barbara Desoer.
A key part of Mr Laughlin’s strategy will be to shrink the portfolio of “bad” loans to about $450bn-$500bn during the next few years, as mortgages that originated with Countrywide and are no longer offered by BofA – including some with adjustable interest rates – are run off, modified or sold at discount prices.
BofA owns about $118bn of the problem loans outright. It services the rest, which means it collects payments from borrowers and initiates foreclosure proceedings.
About 60 per cent of the 4.2m borrowers were up to date with their payments. The rest were at least three months past due, Mr Laughlin said.
To better handle the high number of delinquencies, Mr Laughlin wants to streamline the modification process, under which borrowers are typically offered lower monthly payments for a period.
Mortgage holders will deal with a single bank employee and should receive a decision within 30 days, about one-third of the time it now takes to determine eligibility.
It’s all over the news - the housing double dip is here.
They say that the DD is caused by an overload of foreclosures dragging down prices – but they are talking about the overall national market.
Are the recent trustee sales building a backlog of REOs around San Diego?
It looks like more of the same around here – just when the servicers get some momentum, they turn off the spigot. There have only been 14 successful trustee sales in NSDCC over the last two weeks, so we’re back to the 1+ foreclosure per day.
The threat of future foreclosures is always lingering – could the worst be yet to come? With the banks and servicers controlling the flow, there doesn’t seem to be much reason to expect a flood coming anytime soon – or ever.
How many REOs are floating around in the shadows?
Here are the San Diego County properties owned by each lender, the number of SFRs they own in North San Diego County Coastal, and the count of how many of those aren’t listed yet:
| REO Owner | SD All Prop | NSDCC SFR | NSDCC SFR not listed yet |
| Fannie Mae | |||
| Wells Fargo | |||
| Freddie Mac | |||
| Bank of NY | |||
| Bank of America | |||
| JPMChase | |||
| Citi | |||
| Totals |
In the depressed areas where REOs are abundant, there’s no surprise to see some can-kicking, but around North County Coastal it’s been quiet. A few of the shadows have just been foreclosed, so you know there is some lag for evictions, repairs, and processing. Others are involved in litigation too, so it doesn’t appear that they are purposely delaying the process much around North SD County Coastal.
The buyers around NSDCC will welcome the 25 well-priced SFR REOs when they hit the open market over the next couple of months – expect bidding wars!
Hat tip to MG for sending this along, from HW:
Home prices double-dipped in April, dropping 0.7% below the previous low in March 2009, according to analytics firm Clear Capital.
Prices first reached a new low in California in March. But in April national prices fell 5% below levels measured one year ago and decreased 4.9% from the previous three months. National home prices sank 11.5% over the previous nine-month period, a decline not seen since 2008, Clear Capital said.
“Markets have entered uncharted territory,” Clear Capital said.
Every major metropolitan statistical area showed a drop from the previous three months. While spring brings hope of a traditional turnaround, this will be the first homebuying season spent without the homebuyer tax credit since 2008.
The major hurdle is the amount of distressed property on the market. REO sales account for 34.5% of overall activity nationwide after declining to nearly 20% in the middle of 2010, according to Clear Capital. This same pattern surfaced in 2008, when REO saturation grew from 20% to 32% by the end of the year.
“The latest data through April shows a continued increase in the proportion of distressed sales that are taking hold in markets nationwide,” said Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital. “With more than one-third of national home sales being REO, market prices are being weighed down as many markets have not regained enough footing to withstand the strain of the high proportion of REO sales.”
Clear Capital looked at the home prices trends in 2008 and found similar patterns in 2011. But the stimulus quickly reversed the movement in 2008. Home prices, as of April, are down 25% since the 2008 period. Unlike the last downward push, this one heads into the buying season, which could push prices higher, Clear Capital said. And the market faces many challenges that can only be solved through more sales.
“In light of the compounding effects of winter’s seasonal slowdown and increased distressed sale activity, the market now faces the true test of whether prices can rebound in the historically active spring season,” Villacorta said.
from Clear Capital’s website, through March, 2011:
From Diana at cnbc.com:
For the first time in years, a guy who quantifies the foreclosure crisis got to report some good news. Kyle Lundstedt’s colleagues at LPS Applied Analytics call him Dr. Doom, as he calculates all the numbers for the monthly Mortgage Monitor Report.
But this month he got to report a drop in mortgage delinquencies, down more than 11 percent month-over month, to the lowest level since 2008.
“We’re starting to see that there are a lot of folks who are still hanging in there,” says Lundstedt. “The population is a better credit quality population.”
The subprimes, Alt-A’s, the bad lending of the housing boom, have largely moved through the system already, not to mention that big banks and servicers are getting far more aggressive with loan modifications. One quarter of the loans that were more than 90 days delinquent last year are now current. That’s not to say they will all stay current, but that’s a good sign.
Unfortunately, that’s all Dr. Doom could muster on the bright side: “It’s progress; it’s not game-changing.” That’s because the foreclosure pipeline, that is loans 90+ days delinquent or in the foreclosure process, is enormous.
Foreclosure inventory is at a new all-time high. There are so many loans still waiting to go into foreclosure…in fact the total number of loans 90+ delinquent is 45 times the size of the current monthly foreclosure sale number. 45 times!
From the U-T:
Larry Summers, one-time director of President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council, believes the economy is recovering, albeit not as fast in some areas as desired, but enough to forestall a double dip.
“There is no longer any talk of a depression,” he told journalists at a Lincoln Institute of Land Policy seminar in Cambridge, Mass., over the weekend. “Now, there’s very little talk of a double dip.”
He pointed out that the economy has grown for seven straight quarters and the unemployment rate has fallen.
“The stock market has had the best two-year run since the beginning of the 20th century,” he said. He also said corporate profits are best in any two-year period since World War II.
But he acknowledged things are not improving fast enough.
“To be sure, we have a huge concern that the recovery is not nearly as rapid as we would like,” he said. “The housing sector remains extraordinarily weak. The nation’s long-term debt situation is not where it should be. There have been major steps in financial regulation but we can’t be certain we will avoid another financial crisis.
“But the catastrophe that could have been averted has been averted , and I think it has been averted with a combination of the right diagnosis, determined effort to act on that diagnosis, a good deal of luck and an important change in psychology.”
Summers, who served in the administration from 2009 until early this year, returned to Harvard as president emeritus. He was Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton and chief economist of the World Bank.
Are you looking for an experienced agent to help you buy or sell a home? Contact Jim the Realtor!
Carlsbad
(760) 434-5000
Carmel Valley
(858) 560-7700
jim@jimklinge.com
