In light of the last blog post, let’s direct a renewed focus on the differences between the higher-end and lower-end markets. I have all the data going back for years, so give me a minute and I’ll split the presentations.
But we can already anticipate what’s coming just from the graph above.
The actives’ count is much higher than it has been in the last two years, but the pendings aren’t following. They’ve been steady, but now only just slightly above the number of 2023 pendings when the actives were about HALF of what they are today.
TWICE the inventory, and the same number of pendings?
But I’ll split the market this afternoon, and It’s likely we will find that it’s all driven by the high-end.
A reader asked to split the market at $3,000,000 and take a look around.
They made a good point.
All that matters is what’s happening in your neighborhood of interest.
Analyzing larger samples can only give us suspicious facts. I keep saying how another 15% to 20% increase in inventory is going to make buyers pause, but who cares. When trying to get a read on your favorite neighborhood, do the inventory/sales across town matter? Probably not, and they won’t matter to those buyers & sellers in your neighborhood either.
But until you hire me to discuss your favorite area, we gotta talk about something.
Main point: The Under-$3,000,000 market remains a hot ticket.
NSDCC Active Listings Under $3M: 156
Actives Median LP = $2,200,000
Actives Median LP/sf = $878/sf
NSDCC Pending Listings Under $3M: 98
NSDCC 2025 Sold Listings Under $3M Per Month: 86
There is only a two-month supply, the pricing metrics of the actives are close to the sold metrics, the actives-to-pending ratio is under the 2.0 healthy mark, and half of the recent sales have found their buyer within 18 days.
We can say that’s a hot market in 2025!
However, the Over-$3,000,000 market is a different story:
Over-$3,000,000 market is sluggish, and will likely remain that way.
NSDCC Active Listings Over $3M: 271
Actives Median LP = $5,995,000
Actives Median LP/sf = $1,230/sf
NSDCC Pending Listings Over $3M: 66
NSDCC 2025 Sold Listings Over $3M Per Month: 49
There is a SIX-month supply, the pricing metrics of the active listings are +20% to +40% over the sold metrics, the 4.1 actives-to-pending ratio is pushing the unhealthy zone, and even though the median days-on-market of the solds is a remarkable 36 days, two-thirds of the active listings have been on the market longer that that.
What’s the point? General assumptions are only good for trolling on twitter!
But in this case, the homeowners had never heard of us when a mutual friend recommended they consider hiring the KRG to sell their home. They had already moved to Texas, and considered this to be their second home but weren’t getting back to town much.
Might as well sell it!
Even though it was immaculate and one of the most upgraded homes we’ve ever listed for sale, Donna still recommended staging. The sellers agreed, and by the time we hit the open market, the home looked perfect to me.
There must have been 200+ people that attended my open-house extravaganza, and at least a half-dozen of them told me that they would be submitting an offer. Usually about half of those who threaten to make an offer actually do it, so the count ended up being less than I expected.
It came down to the two top offers, and it was close.
It was so close that the buyer-agent commission was making a difference.
I’m sure most listing agents wouldn’t give it a thought, and just take the highest net.
But I didn’t think it was right that a buyer-agent could win a bidding war by lowballing their own commission rate. What are they going to do once they get into escrow? Would they make it to the finish line?
I’m a big believer in transparency, so I let the other agent know that she was going to lose due to the commission rate – and gave her a chance to do something about it.
She lowered her commission paid by my seller, and the buyers made up the difference.
In a close race, I’m hoping for the best agent to win to improve our chances of closing escrow because it is what’s best for my sellers. We had already completed the highest-and-best round, and there didn’t seem to be any gas left in the tank (neither buyer went up much from their original offer).
If we’re at max money, then, in my opinion, the next decision-maker is the quality and experience of the buyer-agent. My sellers agreed, and we closed successfully!
I’ve had a harrowing 24 hours dealing with blog issues but we’re up and running now!
The regular feature here on Saturday mornings is Where To Move.
We saw the inexpensive new homes outside Phoenix, but it might be asking a lot to move to Arizona – although I think it’s worth considering. Then last week we saw the new homes being built by Davidson in Rancho Mirage but you may not want to plunk down $2,000,000+.
The grumbling has started that it’s not a good time to sell your home. It happens every time the casual observers see homes not selling, and today the count of active listings is higher and trending upward.
I don’t mind the grumbling. Let’s grumble about the facts!
By category:
More homes have been listed for sale this year: Six percent more than last year, and 28% more than in 2023. Hey, it means more choices for the buyers!
There are 21% more active listings today than this time last year. Even though there have been only 6% more total listings since January 1st, there were enough that hungover from December that the overall supply is larger than in previous years.
Last year, the additional supply was getting picked up – there were 185 pendings! This year, it looks like we’ve found the equilibrium point where too much supply starts to affect sales. Having 21% more homes for sale has the number of pendings down 15%.
Important point: Sales this year have been great, and pricing is healthy (so far)!
Sellers just have to do a minor tune-up in relation to the age and condition of their home (the older, the more work needed), hire a good agent, and put an attractive price on it. For those folks, it’s a good time to sell!
The National Association of Realtors published their support of the Clear Cooperation Policy yesterday, and added a change they called Delayed Marketing Exempt Listings.
As usual, they are trying to make everyone happy, resulting in nobody being happy.
They can’t even use proper punctuation. Isn’t there a hyphen missing?
I don’t fully know what their intention, but it looks like they opened the door to listing agents who want to advertise their listings on their own websites before putting them on the search portals. The #16 above is from the FAQs:
Listing agents are going to do what they feel is in their best interest, and in the best interest of their sellers (probably in that order, unfortunately). Until the DOJ lays down a specific law preventing them, off-market sales will keep happening.
Natalie has had her real estate license for a week, and she’s already figured it out:
I’ve been listening to the podcast Morning Brew Daily as a way to stay up to date on current events without having to read too many doomsday headlines. Happy to say it’s working!
A big topic lately for MBD and many news sources is the recent tariffs. There’s lots of talk about how it’ll affect prices on groceries, alcohol, cars, gas, etc., but how will it affect housing?
As another way to stay more educated, I subscribed to Bill McBride’s substack, a source for many of Jim’s blog posts. In this recent one, he talks about how the recent policies, mainly related to tariffs and immigration, will affect housing:
A few impacts:
Tariffs will lead to higher costs. I spoke to a contractor last week who hasn’t seen any price increases yet, but he said he had received “warning letters” from key suppliers about likely price increases. The uncertainty around tariffs also makes it more difficult to bid projects.
Less immigration will lead to less household formation. This suggests less demand for housing, especially for rentals.
An immigration crackdown would lead to fewer workers in construction. This would push up costs for construction. This would also lead to more rental vacancies.
This suggests higher costs for construction and less demand for housing.
That last part of the final sentence seemed crazy to me since I often hear about how there is a nationwide shortage of homes for sale and rent. So less demand?! That seems like a solution to our problem, right?
But upon thinking about it more, I think there’s just a massive shortage for attractive housing in desirable areas. And living in LA and working in San Diego real estate, I tend to be focused on some of the most desirable areas in the country.
I was just in the rental market looking for an apartment in West LA. My first day touring, I saw seven apartments in two hours and the options were rough. Most places were old, outdated, and/or dark, plus lacked the desirable add-ons: parking, outdoor space, updated appliances, ample storage, etc. (In LA, I would argue parking is a necessity, but to each their own.) Regardless, of those seven apartments, I finished the day thinking I could probably be happy in only two of them, alright in two others, and miserable living in the rest.
I toured these apartments about 3 weeks ago and almost all are still listed for lease. So my question remains, is there an actual shortage for housing? Or is Bill right and demand is starting to decrease?
Maybe there is sufficient housing in our areas but property upkeep and updating is getting too expensive so sellers/landlords can’t afford to make their listings attractive? And if they can afford to, they’re charging exorbitant prices because we’re in desirable areas and people want to live happily here.
I don’t have all the answers, but some food for thought!
And in case you’re wondering, my boyfriend and I signed the lease for one of the two apartments I said I’d be happy in and got the keys on Saturday – moving in this week!
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
