State Street/Laguna Dr
You’ll know it’s over when they come for the Golden Tee…..
Inventory Watch
A year ago, there were 605 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 470 pendings.
Today, there are 274 actives, and 278 pendings (which is -55% and -41% YoY).
Buyers didn’t hit the brakes last year when we had twice as many actives, so it will probably take a 100-year flood of inventory to crash the market. It’s more likely to go the other way, and the inventory will likely remain low in 2022…..with more fixers than creampuffs!
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Frenzy Monitor
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
The number of pending listings is almost the same as the number of actives. It’s feasible that their paths could cross again in the coming weeks as the unsuccessful sellers cancel their listings for the holidays:
NSDCC Active and Pending Listings
But with fewer homes for sale combined with the time of year, we probably won’t see much change. Let’s call it low-grade frenzy conditions for now.
How about the average days on market?
Some of the high-enders have been hanging around a while, but the rest are moving!
It’s fascinating that the average days-on-market for ALL pendings is 33 days, and the median is 16 days. For those 65 pending sales over $3,000,000, the average DOM is 54, and the median is 43 – it doesn’t take months to sell in this market.
Best of San Diego, 1985
I was here then – it felt like a town on the move:
This is Part 1: https://youtu.be/4VUMp0RxSIg
Over List – September
Here is where the cooling-frenzy shows up.
The number of buyers who are willing to pay over list price is dropping:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
April: 55%
May: 54%
June: 59%
July: 64%
August: 55%
September: 41%
To have 41% of the sales close over list price would be remarkable….if it weren’t for the last six months!
Percentage Who Paid Over List Price by Price Range
| Price Range | |||||||
| $0 – $1.0M | |||||||
| $1.0M – $1.5M | |||||||
| $1.5M – $2.0M | |||||||
| $2.0M – $3.0M | |||||||
| $3M+ |
The average sales prices have been virtually identical for the last three months, and the median sales price is back up to where it was in May:
NSDCC Average and Median Prices
| Month | |||||
| Feb | |||||
| March | |||||
| April | |||||
| May | |||||
| June | |||||
| July | |||||
| Aug | |||||
| Sept |
Compared to last September, the average sales price was +25%, and the median sales price was +33%!
Sales should taper off the rest of the year, but not sure if pricing will follow!
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San Diego Inventory & Sales
Most of the country is experiencing increases in their inventory, but not San Diego. This is why I think our frenzy could – and should – be as hot today as it was last year, but there just aren’t enough homes for sale.
The count of active listings is half of what it was last year at this time!
In spite of our inventory dropping, San Diego sales are hanging tough – down only 11.1%:
From Bill at CR:
Man, what a great time to sell. Here is Bill’s full article:
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/1st-look-at-local-housing-markets
Emmylou Harris
At the Belly-Up tonight!
The benefit show tonight raised $140,000 for the NAMM foundation! Security is tight so you only have one opportunity to get a minute or two of video – this was my shot tonight (she is 74 years old!):
Bezos Bonanza
Elon Musk may have just surpassed Amazon Founder Jeff Bezos as the richest person in the world (at time of press), but with a net worth of $191.4 billion and owning the properties he does, he’s not bound to lose any sleep over the news. Bezos, like other billionaires, has a complex and wide-ranging real estate portfolio that includes everything from Beverly Hills mansions to the Corn Ranch near Van Horn, Texas.
It was also announced last year that Bezos cracked the top 25 list of people that own the most land in the U.S., with 420,000 acres.
Here’s an overview of Jeff Bezos’ real estate portfolio:
http://blog.rismedia.com/2021/jeff-bezos-real-estate-portfolio/
NSDCC September Sales
There might be a few stragglers left to report, but this gives us a good reflection of how the summer wrapped up after the frenzy started cooling in June:
NSDCC September Sales
Remember when sales prices were lower than list prices?
- The median sales price in September is 5.3% higher than the median list price.
- The median sales price rose 34% year-over-year.
- The sales count is the third highest ever.
If there were more homes for sale, nobody would be talking about a cooldown!
Drought and Real Estate
This latest survey by realtor.com shows that only 11% of homebuyers are concerned about the drought (just edging out the sinkholes!):
Homeowners were the most concerned about tornadoes, at 39%; severe cold or winter storms, at 38%; flooding, at 35%; hurricanes, at 29%; earthquakes, at 21%; wildfires, at 17%; droughts, at 11%; and sinkholes, at 8%.
According to drought.com, 87.9% of California is enduring ‘Extreme Drought’ conditions today, but San Diego County isn’t part of it:
Link to Drought.com/sandiegoThe last severe drought peaked in 2014, and it was only after the fact that we found out that San Diego had plenty of water. This year, the governor has urged Californians to voluntarily cut domestic water use by 15%, and more restrictions are likely to follow.
How will it affect the real estate market?
Hopefully it will cause more buyers and sellers to seek out the truth – that San Diego is in better shape than most of the state. There is a very affluent demand for homes here, and water will always be available….at some price. Buyers with bigger and better reasons to move here won’t be deterred, and besides, what’s the alternative? Move to Florida?
It might cause a few more potential sellers to add one more reason to their list of why they should move, but the fear of water drying up won’t be enough to overwhelm the reasons to stay – weather, it’s-more-comfortable-to-stay, don’t-need-to-move, don’t want to go through my stuff, kids-are-here, etc. Maybe some additional inventory hits the market in selected areas, but don’t expect a flood.
Doug had thoughts about the drought in 2015:
