It’s early, and the final February sales count will probably wind up around 165-170, which is in line with years prior to 2021. However, the pricing is nuts – and related to the number of homes for sale!
| Year | |||||
| 2017 | |||||
| 2018 | |||||
| 2019 | |||||
| 2020 | |||||
| 2021 | |||||
| 2022 |
LAST MONTH, THE MEDIAN SALES PRICE WAS 11% HIGHER THAN THE MEDIAN LIST PRICE!
There have been three sales on this street between $2.7 million and $3.223 million in the last year, so this price is relatively attractive for those who don’t mind doing a refresh:
We can use the SP:LP ratio to gauge how hot the market is.
Last year, the ratio was flat heading into the selling season, with February being right at 100.1%.
Last month was already up to 103.6%, which is incredible for this early in the year!
We just had the hottest February ever!
This will give you a flashback to 1987 – too bad there aren’t more backyards like this one though:
https://www.compass.com/listing/2766-inverness-drive-carlsbad-ca-92010/972567144336820809/
Do you ever wonder who else is reading this blog?
Here are some demographics for readers in the first two months of 2022:
The number of users were running around 5,000 per month last year, so welcome newcomers!
About half of the audience is between the ages of 25-44, which is promising:
I’m glad to see that gender is fairly even, with 58% male and 42% female readers:
Here’s where you are from:
Ashburn, Virginia is ‘a major hub for Internet traffic, due to its many data centers’. It is probably where many of the bots originate.
Thank you for being here. If you, or someone you know, is thinking of moving, I’d sure appreciate a call!
Yesterday Bill talked about how the median home prices have picked up:
https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/median-vs-repeat-sales-index-house-198
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Zillow has also done a reversal on where they think home prices are going.
After forecasting three months in a row that homes in our local zip codes would be rising around 20% in 2022, their most recent guesses dropped to around +16% here:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2022/02/07/zillow-way-off/
They have been sending me their forecasts one by one over a couple of weeks. Here are their forecasts I’ve received at the end of February for our local areas (more to come):
Can we do +30% two years in a row? Or is Zillow off their rocker?
They do have something that none of the ivory-tower economists have – the real estate viewer data.
The showings and offers are complete, and anxious buyers are awaiting their fate. All but one will be left scratching their head wondering how much the next one will be!
https://www.compass.com/listing/3554-camino-arena-carlsbad-ca-92009/988499811730215929/
Check out our new listing that is priced at $251/sf!
39221 Daily Rd., Fallbrook, CA 92028
4 br + den/2.5 ba, 3,963sf
YB: 1991
5.14 acres
LP = $995,000
SP = $1,065,000
The perfect home of the future – get out of the rat race and enjoy fine country living in this gorgeous home bathed in natural light with panoramic views in every direction! Huge bedrooms, walk-in closets, hardwood floors, 2 fireplaces, and gourmet kitchen with chef’s island and extra-large pantry. Valencia orange trees and lemons too. For those working from home, it has exceptional internet access! Thinking of buying a home for your kids or an ideal rental property? This could be for you! Bring the RVs, toys, trailers, etc.
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/39221-daily-road-fallbrook-ca-92028/984838266877509673
Tomorrow is March! How did the inventory do in the first two months of 2022?
NSDCC Number of New Listings, Jan 1 to Feb 28 (% priced over $2M):
2019: 779 (34%)
2020: 706 (40%)
2021: 602 (47%)
2022: 389 (67%)
There will be a few more added to this year’s count to get it into the low-400s. But for the buyers who want/need to move this spring, the ultra-low supply is demoralizing.
In the same period in the 2009-2011 (when nobody wanted to sell because the market was in the tank), the counts were 900+ each year!
