Gregg & Jackson

After Gregg’s funeral, Jackson wanted to play, somewhere. He went to a place called Grant’s Lounge, where everyone played back in the’70’s. Folks had a real shock that night. The talent that came there, for Gregg’s memory was amazing. Thank Jackson. That was appreciated by everyone who just happened to be there that night. Adding, being Gregg’s friend was not an easy thing for a long time. Have had some friends like that myself. Jackson is one helluva good man, will leave that there.

“I wrote ‘These Days’ before I met Gregg. He heard me play the song when we were first friends, I guess we were probably both 18,” Jackson Browne tells Blackbird about Gregg Allman in this concert clip. “The way he did that song completely changed it, I think for me and for everybody… I could write a song like that but when it came time to singing it, Gregg really gave it a kind of graveness and gravity that the song can hold.”

Relive the magic of Gregg and Jackson performing “These Days” together for the first time:

Please don’t confront me with my failures, I am aware of them.

Commentary on Today’s Market

My thoughts on commentary seen in the news today:

With rates rising, and prices significantly higher, the average borrower is paying about 38% more on the monthly payment now than they would have for the same home one year ago, according to Realtor.com.

JtR: This is crushing the move-up/move-down market, with very few existing homeowners needing to move bad enough to start over on a new 30-year mortgage at a higher rate (86% of mortgage holders have a rate under 5%).

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Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 3% for the week and were 14% lower than the same week one year ago. That annual decline is now beginning to grow, as housing becomes even more pricey.

“In a housing market facing affordability challenges and low inventory, higher rates are causing a pullback or delay in home purchase demand as well. Home purchase activity has been volatile in recent weeks and has yet to see the typical pickup for this time of the year,” added Kan.

March sales were 4.5% lower than the same period in 2021.

JtR: Sales are dropping due to lack of supply, yet the talking heads will blame it on the demand side.  There is no shortage of demand around San Diego County – plenty of buyers waiting.

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A new study conducted by OJO Labs, an online real estate site and personal finance tool, found that the vast majority of recent home seekers are unwilling to relocate extreme distances, and are instead looking to buy much closer to their current homes.

It suggests that while buying a home in another state may have become a popular move for some during the pandemic—especially for high earners—most people looking for a new home right now are not venturing too far.

The OJO Labs study, published at the very end of March, surveyed more than 500 prospective homebuyers about their experience over that month. Of these, 41% were limiting their search to within six and 50 miles from their current home, while 36% were interested in buying a new house only if it was fewer than five miles away.

Only 11% of respondents were willing to move more than 500 miles away from their current address.

The findings push back on the pandemic-era narrative of New Yorkers and Californians moving to more livable cities in states like Arizona, Texas, and Florida.

JtR: Those who are only searching within a 50-mile radius of NSDCC probably won’t find anything that makes it worth moving – the prices aren’t low enough. There needs to be a bigger windfall to compensate for the capital-gains taxes, and feel like a big win. Nobody is going to move just for the heck of it. Thus, our supply is dependent upon those willing to move a long ways.

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Daimler went on to say that Zillow does not believe that the “double dipping agent” — or in other words dual agency in which the same person represents both a buyer and a seller — is the future.

“We don’t believe in that philosophy and we don’t believe that’s where the industry is going,” she added.

JtR: She needs to spend a few days on the street to know what’s really going on – it’s never been so hard to be a buyer’s agent.  I finally succeeded with a set of buyers on their 12th offer, which was 40% higher in price than where we started six months ago. It will be a natural progression that buyer-agents get phased out altogether, and CoStar’s new search portal that directs the consumers back to the listing agent will be the last straw. It will debut in New York City this summer.

Unlimited Density and Height

For those who saw the Carlsbad Train Redevelopment and wondered what other apartment houses (and affordable housing) are being built around town, check out this article:

https://www.kpbs.org/news/local/2022/04/14/in-san-diegos-quest-for-more-housing-unlimited-height-density-show-results

An excerpt:

Construction began this week at 901 West Washington St. in Mission Hills, where developer Soheil Nakhshab is building 54 studio apartments. He likens each unit’s design to a Swiss Army knife, with built-in tables and beds that fold up into the walls.

The project would not have been possible without Complete Communities, San Diego’s most aggressive attempt yet at encouraging high-density housing near public transit.

Approved by the City Council in November 2020, just one month before Mayor Kevin Faulconer and five councilmembers left office, Complete Communities allows developers to build apartments with unlimited density and height if they agree to set aside a much greater share of the homes as affordable housing than would otherwise be required.

The program is designed to withstand political and neighborhood opposition to individual projects, letting developers bypass the Planning Commission and City Council and get building permits directly from city staffers. The result has been swift approval of bigger projects with smaller, less-expensive homes.

Sites zoned for single-family homes are not eligible for Complete Communities, no matter how close they are to public transit.

Nakhshab said his project, which includes no off-street parking, would open up Mission Hills to more young professionals who don’t want the expense of car ownership and can’t afford the pricey single-family homes that dominate the neighborhood.

“What we’re trying to do is give them an opportunity to live in a prosperous, vibrant neighborhood with tons of public amenities at an affordable rate,” Nakhshab said.

NSDCC 1Q Listings & Sales

The drastic drop in inventory seems devastating, but check out the closed sales:

NSDCC Number of Listings & Sales, First Quarter

Year
NSDCC Total 1Q Listings
Median List Price
1Q Closings
Median Sales Price
2018
1,230
$1,592,500
569
$1,323,000
2019
1,277
$1,575,000
536
$1,290,000
2020
1,082
$1,712,500
572
$1,420,500
2021
985
$1,899,000
663
$1,800,000
2022
704
$2,595,000
504
$2,418,000

Last year was an exceptional frenzy with 663 sales in the first quarter, but look how this year compares to previous years. The 1Q sales in 2022 are fairly close to those in 2018-2020, in spite of fewer choices!

Inventory Watch

Part of the problem with trying to analyze any of the current data is that there is no precedent – any previous assumptions have little or no relevance to today’s market because of the lack of homes for sale.

We keep hoping there is going to be a surge of new listings , but it’s still not happening – we had more new pendings than new listings again this week. We would need a flood just to catch up with last year, which was less than half of what we had in the covid-affected era!

NSDCC Actives & Pendings, Mid-April:

Year
NSDCC Active Listings
NSDCC Pending Listings
2018
825
331
2019
925
341
2020
684
192
2021
335
358
2022
224
212

Plus, almost half of today’s 224 active listings are priced over $4,000,000!

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