Max Transparency

We have received written offers on our new CV listing so we have done our customary thing and issued highest-and-best counter-offers to each buyer.

But there isn’t any typical or obvious way to update the other potential buyers and the general public on the progress and how they can join in. Usually when the listing agents get multiple offers, we see them happily put in their remarks ‘NO MORE SHOWINGS’, and then they turn off their phone.

So I included a new sentence right in my remarks, AND added an open house for tomorrow morning to give anyone else a chance to view the property.

Let’s give everyone a chance!

Inventory Watch

The number of homes for sale has already exceeded the counts for the same time in 2023 and 2024, and the number of pendings is lower than the previous two years too.

The pendings’ count has dipped 10% since the start of the year, but it did the same thing last year before turning upward. Their blue line is barely visible on the chart because it is so similar to last year.

There have been 119 new listings in January, so 300+ looks achievable!

The guy who has been studying the homes-for-sale inventory closer than anyone

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Hang Onto Your Hat

Expect the cost of insurance to rise, or taxes to go up. Or both! An excerpt:

Earlier this month, JPMorgan estimated the fires around Los Angeles had inflicted $50 billion in losses, of which only $20 billion were insured.

One reason for the gap: State regulators have prevented insurers from charging premiums commensurate with rising property values, construction costs and wildfire risk exacerbated by a warming climate. Many thus stopped renewing policies.

Hundreds of thousands of homeowners shifted to California’s state-run backstop, the Fair Plan, whose exposure has tripled since 2020 to $458 billion. It has only $2.5 billion in reinsurance and $200 million in cash.

If the Fair Plan runs out of money, it can impose an assessment on private insurers to be partly passed on to all policyholders. In other words, the costs of the disaster will be socialized.

California is a microcosm of what happens when insurance breaks down: Either households face potential ruin or the public is handed a financial time bomb.

“What we are seeing is a real disconnect,” said Carolyn Kousky, an economist specializing in risk and founder of the nonprofit Insurance For Good. “There are opposing views on insurance: Is it a private market good, or is it social protection, to make sure everyone has the resources to recover from disaster?”

A central feature of insurance is risk pooling: The combined contributions of the community cover the losses incurred by members of the community in a given year.

Another feature of private insurance is actuarial rate-making, that is, calibrating premiums to the customer’s risk. That’s to prevent “adverse selection,” in which only the riskiest people buy insurance, and moral hazard—the tendency to encourage risk by undercharging for it.

But some activities or individuals are so risky they could never obtain, or afford, private insurance. That’s when risk gets socialized. The federal government’s expansion since the 1930s has largely been through the provision of insurance: Social Security, unemployment insurance, health insurance for the elderly and poor, deposit, mortgage, and flood insurance and, after Sept. 11, 2001, terrorism insurance. Not for nothing is the federal government often called an insurance company with an army.

Link to free WSJ article

A great WSJ article on private firefighting:

Stop them from burning

Best Markets in 2025

We’re expected to do well here in the sandy bagel, but other markets that might do better! Look around!

San Diego is expected to be one of the most competitive real estate markets in the country this year, according to a new report.

Why it matters: Regions that make Zillow’s annual “hottest market” ranking are usually those that are “starved for housing inventory,” and that competition can push up prices.

Driving the news: San Diego came in as the 19th hottest market for 2025, up 10 spots from a year earlier.

  • Zillow projects Riverside, which often operates as a release valve for San Diego’s affordability crisis with residents trading long commutes for cheaper homes, as the 22nd hottest market.

How it works: Zillow’s index is based on forecasted home value appreciation for this coming November, the rate of increase over the previous year, how many days a typical home was listed last year, and the projected change in the share of homes occupied by homeowners.

Read full article here:

https://www.axios.com/local/san-diego/2025/01/14/san-diego-real-estate-2025-hot-market-zillow

The Golden Age

An article in the North County Times from late 2005.

Those were the days of low home prices and easier financing (though not as easy as the no-doc days in 2005-2008). As a result, it was the real Golden Age because everyone could participate.

The last five years were juiced with ultra-low mortgage rates and now the market is restricted to the affluent only due to the much-higher prices. But the returns were similar (or better in Encinitas and RSF) to what they were in the 2000-2005 era:

New Real Estate Rules

Every year, there are new laws/rules plus other changes that realtors need to know. Yesterday was the annual review by Gov Hutchinson, the assistant general counsel for the California Association of Realtors.

Gov has been with C.A.R. since 1985 and manages C.A.R.’s Member Legal Services Program in Los Angeles. Gov advises REALTORS® through the “Hotline” on all aspects of real estate law and he trains and supervises other “Hotline” attorneys.  Gov received his Bachelor’s Degree in History from Princeton University and his Juris Doctorate from the University of Pennsylvania.

Because he runs the Hotline, he hears all the feedback about the current forms and issues and he is the best equipped to deal with them!

He is a fantastic speaker and we enjoy going every year to learn and laugh with Gov! One agent stomped out when Gov wouldn’t agree with him about listing agents offering a specific compensation to the buyer-agents on the phone. I agree with Gov – a verbal offer over the phone isn’t binding, so why bother?

The highlights:

On Tuesday, Gavin Newsom signed an executive order mandating that homes in the fire zone could not be sold for less than they were worth on January 6th. The idea sounds preposterous, but the scammers are already out making lowball offers so I guess something has to be done:

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As of August 17, 2024, the NAR Settlement required realtors to complete a buyer-broker agreement with their buyer clients prior to viewing residential properties in person. The State of California supplemented the practice with their own law that began on January 1st, and the Department of Real Estate will issue their own mandate shortly. Between the two, they will require that every licensee (realtor or not) has a written buyer-broker agreement before showing any type of property, not just residential.

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The initial exclusive buyer-broker agreement could be cancelled with 30 days notice. The latest version allows for 30 days or less, as negotiated in paragraph 2F. Buyers may feel more comfortable signing an agreement that can be cancelled on short notice, and if you are going to cancel, you might as well get it over with. Choosing 1, 3, 5, or 10 days may now be more appropriate here:

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This new form change is welcome. Whenever a buyer or seller wanted to agree to a deal but the offer or counter-offer had expired, we would have to author another addendum to extend – leaving the door open for possible shenanigans.

Now the verbiage is included – as long as the other party signs the paragraph 6, then we have a deal. The delay is still possible, but at least we don’t have to agree on who will be writing the addendum and exactly what it needs to say to make everyone happy:

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Tenant rights are already long and lengthy but every year the rentals category gets at least twice as many changes as sales side:

A. There is a new form for landlords to report the tenant’s payment history to the credit bureaus. But it’s only required if the landlord owns two or more rental properties. They are able to charge the tenant $10 per month for this service.

B. If a landlord is going to keep more than $125 of the tenant’s deposit, they need before and after photos.

C. Any clause that states the tenants are responsible for professional carpet cleaning at move-out is unenforceable. Carpet cleaning is only required if it is ‘reasonably necessary’.

D. The seller is responsible for maintenance when renting back after the close of escrow.

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Rent Gouging is illegal in areas that have been declared to be in a state of emergency. Rents can’t be jacked more than 10% of what are currently or what they were over the last 12 months. If the property is new to the rental market, the rent can’t be more than 160% of the HUD standard in the area. Even when there are multiple tenants bidding up the rent, it can’t go higher than +10%.

What areas are in a state of emergency? ALL of California has been in a state of emergency……due to the Bird Flu. The notice expires on Friday so wait until Saturday to gouge tenants around here.

The Tenant Protection Act of 2019 limits the annual maximum increase in rents to 10% or CPI + 5%. This year in San Diego County, the CPI + 5% = 8.8%.

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That’s about all for now!

BTW, I ran into another long-time agent in the parking lot. When I told him that I’m getting a call a day from potential sellers, he said he’s taken TEN listings in the last seven days.

We agreed – in our decades of being in this business, we’ve never seen it like this! The fires may be providing a bit of a respite, but a flood of listings is coming.

Our New Listing in CV

Our new listing in Carmel Valley!

11463 Nantucket Pkwy., San Diego 92130

4 br + den/4.5 ba, 3,547sf

YB: 2003

No HOA!

Mello-Roos = $106/mo and expires in 2027

3-car garage

Lot size = 6,839sf

LP = $2,995,000

SP = $3,051,000

#1 Goal? Buy a house owned by a designer – they always max out their own home! This recent remodel was meticulously crafted with high-end premium upgrades throughout, including full gourmet kitchen with Wolf/Sub-Zero, a sensational primary-bath customization, hardwood flooring, new dual-zone HVAC installed in 2025, custom wrought-iron stairrail, and it has the secluded bedroom suite downstairs – all on a culdesac one block from Ocean Air Elementary! Backyard includes infrared grill and wood-fired oven imported from Italy plus all new painted fence and gates! Wow! Don’t miss this one! Less than a 1/4-mile to Starbucks and only 1.2 miles to I-5 freeway. Don’t get stuck in PHR traffic – this location will set you free!

After the boisterous open-house extravaganza the first weekend, we received multiple offers!

Downstairs suite

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