Here’s Donna
Donna runs our business, the Klinge Realty Group, and she is the key to our success. I’ve been hoping that she would do more videos, and here’s why:
$108 Million in La Jolla
Another look at the big bomber before it sells:
Migration is Slowing
The out-migration from California must be slowing – because I doubt the in-migration has been increasing! It’s almost back to pre-covid levels, which means we can say it’s normalizing?
My guess at the reason? When Californians try to make sense of moving out of state, they find that home prices elsewhere have risen so much that it doesn’t make as much sense as it used to.
Thanks to Lance for the data!
This month, the U.S. Census Bureau published their net domestic migration figures for 2024. Keep in mind that this metric (net domestic migration) is NOT total population change. It doesn’t include births/deaths nor international migration.
Instead, net domestic migration is calculated as the difference between the number of Americans moving into a given state (in-migration) and the number of people leaving that state (out-migration) over a specific period.
These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration INCREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:
- Texas —> +85,267
- North Carolina —> +82,288
- South Carolina —> +68,043
- Florida —> +64,017
- Tennessee —> +48,476
These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration DECREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:
- California —> -239,575
- New York —> -120,917
- Illinois —> -56,235
- New Jersey —> -35,554
- Massachusetts —> -27,480
State of the NSDCC
I thought that this would be the week that the surge of new listings would start to appear, but not yet. There have only been 167 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is about the same pace as last January.
The monthly closed sales are about the same too. There were 102 NSDCC sales last January, and so far there have been 87 closings this month so we should exceed the 2024 count.
Ok – so we’re doing the same or a little better than last year.
The concern?
There have only been 81 new pendings this month.
It means the future closings are going to be light.
It looks like we’ll be lucky to reach 100 sales next month. There are only 109 total pendings today, and probably 20 of those will close this month! Last February, there were 140 closings.
Let’s examine our listing on Nantucket for guidance.
I thought we could get 5-10 offers, and might get bid up 5% to 10% over list. The house looked spectacular and seemed superior to the comp RIGHT NEXT DOOR that was pending with the same list price. The neighbor had a pool, but inside looked very standard.
But we received fewer than five offers and it only got bid up a little.
What happened?
I had 200+ people attend the open houses, so it seemed like everything was going right. But there must have been at least 6-8 people who told me that they were going to make an offer, but then disappeared.
Was it the three-day weekend? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it too early in the season? I had 200+ people attend.
Was it the price? I had 200+ people attend.
No matter how many homes the potential buyers have seen, they had to recognize that this home was highly upgraded, which is hard to find around Carmel Valley where the vast majority of homes for sale are older tract houses – but not old enough to be thoroughly renovated yet. It’s probably the worst time ever for CV shopping because every home not in Pacific Highlands Ranch looks dated now.
We have lookers. They appear to be very cautious and content to wait-and-see.
Will they be buyers? If they are waiting for better pricing, they will be in for a LONG wait. Sellers aren’t going to budge when they have a comp or two to back their case on price.
Buyer-agents are fading away, and this is where we will see the impact. Without having good help, potential buyers will be overly cautious and stay comfortably on the fence. Fewer sales ahead!
Days On Market
It’s common that when the residential resale market feels slower, the participants shrug it off by saying, “It just takes longer to sell these days.” It is a too-quick opinion that masks the real problem, which is:
It’s taking longer for sellers to admit how wrong their price is.
Because the days-on-market is publicly displayed, the buyers are watching it closely as an indicator. What’s worse is that they think the longer a home is on the market, the more wrong the price is!
Consider the graph above, which tracks discounts back to the old days when the DOM counts weren’t as available as they are today. Today, I think those timelines are 2x as fast – or faster!
Today, if a house hasn’t sold in the first two weeks, buyers start thinking the price is wrong.
Conversely, if buyers think the price is decent, they buy the home without waiting.
Here’s a sampling of the three mid-range zip codes in north county’s coastal region:
My main point?
Conveniently, the opinion that “It just takes longer to sell these days” has been true when prices are rising. Eventually, the market catches up and the over-priced turkey will eventually look like a deal if you wait long enough – but only when prices are rising.
When prices go flat – like they are today – then the market doesn’t come to save you. Instead, it undercuts the OPTs, leaving them high and dry. It is especially true when there is a surge of new listings that makes it even more obvious.
Yesterday, I mentioned to a past client in CV that I sold Nantucket for over list after the first weekend, and he said, “Incredible! We have houses in our area sitting on the market for months with zero action”.
In Spring, 2025, listing agents will be asking their sellers; “do you mind taking a little less than the actives?”
Welcome to Flat City, with OPTs being ignored and causing buyers to be suspicious of everyone’s price.
29482 Vista Valley Drive
Our new listing in Vista/Bonsall!
29482 Vista Valley Drive
4 br/6 ba, 4,984sf
YB: 1987
1.01 acre lot
LP = $1,895,000
Are you looking for the ultimate golf estate? This custom masterpiece has 235ft of frontage on the signature 18th hole of the prestigious members-only Havens Country Club and it is loaded with classic upgrades! The primary suite and two other bedrooms are on the same entry level – it’s 3,800sf of one-story living, with generous views over two holes and the foothills! Need to get down to the garage? Take the elegant staircase or ride the high-grade elevator! The old-Spanish styling and superior location makes this gem the finest home on the golf course! The smaller house across the street (and not on the golf course) just sold for $1,985,000!
Three-car garage plus room for your golf cart. Wine cellar that hold 668 bottles – wow! The Havens is a private country club and is associated with Cal-a-Vie Health Spa next door. Championship golf, tennis, pickleball, health club, restaurant and winery are existing benefits with pool/spa facility being built about 200 yards from this home! Golf or social memberships are available separately.
https://www.compass.com/listing/29482-vista-valley-drive-vista-ca-92084/1760318913447893953/
The Havens Country Club clubhouse behind 18th green
Clubhouse
Trendy Tuesday – KK
Trendy Tuesday: The “Pretty Ugly” Trend
Hey everyone! I stumbled across this Elle Decor article late last year and I couldn’t help but share it with you all. It’s about embracing the “pretty ugly” trend. Some examples they include are a toe sculpture on top of the breakfast table and a crying little girl over the bed in the primary suite.
Thoughts on this interior design trend?
It’s not exactly my taste. To be honest, I don’t think I could ever eat breakfast or even a snack at a table with an XL toe/toenail next to me LOL. But I do love a pop of color or a unique/vintage furniture piece!
Happy Tuesday everybody!
– KK (aka Kayla)
How Hot Is The Market?
How can we gauge how the market is doing?
Each blog post here has at least one category, including ‘How Hot’ – which hasn’t been touched since 2017, so no new revelations there.
Let’s take a quick look at the January listings to use as our gauge.
Of the 126 NSDCC new listings this month, only 21 of them have gone pending or sold.
Four January listings have already closed escrow, and all were sold off-market, so not much to learn there. The remaining 17 of 122 that have found a buyer makes for only 14%, which doesn’t sound like many.
What’s the hold up? Are buyers determined to wait-and-see for an extended period?
Maybe, but it’s more due to the staleness.
Of the 126 January listings, 40% of them were on the market in the last half of 2024. A few listed with a new agent, and a handful raised their price. But the vast majority were refreshed by the same agent at the same price in hopes of fooling buyers into thinking that they were hot new listings coming to market.
You’re not going to fool many, because everyone knows to check the history of every new listing by now. The minute that buyers see that it was refreshed, it gets swiped.
This is #2 of my ten categories on why more listings will be coming to market in 2025, and just old-listings-being-refreshed could make up a bulk of my predicted +15% to +20% additional listings YoY by themselves!
When buyers see unsold listings starting to pile up, they might think the market is sluggish. But it’s just the listing agents doing it to ourselves again – undermining the truth!
Max Transparency
We have received written offers on our new CV listing so we have done our customary thing and issued highest-and-best counter-offers to each buyer.
But there isn’t any typical or obvious way to update the other potential buyers and the general public on the progress and how they can join in. Usually when the listing agents get multiple offers, we see them happily put in their remarks ‘NO MORE SHOWINGS’, and then they turn off their phone.
So I included a new sentence right in my remarks, AND added an open house for tomorrow morning to give anyone else a chance to view the property.
Let’s give everyone a chance!
Inventory Watch
The number of homes for sale has already exceeded the counts for the same time in 2023 and 2024, and the number of pendings is lower than the previous two years too.
The pendings’ count has dipped 10% since the start of the year, but it did the same thing last year before turning upward. Their blue line is barely visible on the chart because it is so similar to last year.
There have been 119 new listings in January, so 300+ looks achievable!
The guy who has been studying the homes-for-sale inventory closer than anyone
