Yesterday a guy said he wasn’t interested in anecdotal evidence and just wanted to see the data. But we were talking about the buyer demand in 2023, of which we have no data yet.
In addition, the data we do have doesn’t have to repeat itself or be a trend, because every month we have different houses selling. It’s not like the stock indices that measure the exact same stock every day – in real estate, it’s a new set of variables every month. It’s a miracle that each month looks as similar as it does!
But for those who want the numbers, here you go!
NSDCC (La Jolla to Carlsbad) Monthly Sales Stats
Date
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median SF
Avg DOM
Avg. $/sf
Med. $/sf
Jun
190
$2,350,000
2,710sf
23
$947/sf
$837/sf
Jul
155
$2,300,000
2,798sf
28
$925/sf
$830/sf
Aug
165
$2,150,000
2,642sf
36
$973/sf
$804/sf
Sep
135
$2,040,000
2,600sf
38
$910/sf
$793/sf
Oct
124
$2,212,500
2,909sf
43
$922/sf
$784/sf
Nov
109
$1,860,000
2,581sf
42
$821/sf
$739/sf
For the record, here’s the summary from June to November:
Sales: –43%
Median Sales Price: –21%
Average Days-on-Market: +83%
Average $/sf: –13%
Median $/sf: –12%
The stats are straight off the SD MLS, and I’m not sure how they calculate their Median $/sf because it’s not the median sales price divided by the median sf – but their numbers are close to that.
There has been a steady downdraft in pricing, led by sellers who stay on the market for 30+ days and then take a lowball offer. As long as listings aren’t fully prepared, aren’t priced attractively, and are hard to show, the downward-pricing trend will continue.
Ideally, you want to sell your home in the first week or two that it is on the market.
This isn’t exactly new news – most prognosticators figured the Fed would only raise their rate by 0.5% in December, instead of the 3/4% hikes recently – but the stock market liked it (up 628) and the 10-year yield dropped a tenth. All we need is mortgage rates to be in the 5s for selling season!
Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down. The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting. Given our progress in tightening policy, the timing of that moderation is far less significant than the questions of how much further we will need to raise rates to control inflation, and the length of time it will be necessary to hold policy at a restrictive level. It is likely that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time. History cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course until the job is done.
He never had a clue about the real estate market, and was just winging it – and nobody has helped him with it since. “…..hopefully come out in a better place between supply and demand”??? The guy who has our economy in his hands is living on hope?
Every once in a while, a sliver of truth slips into the mainstream media articles.
After the usual negativity spewed throughout the front-page UT article about the local Case-Shiller Index declining at one of the worst rates of any town in America, this quote appears at the bottom:
Zillow senior economist Nicole Bachaud wrote in an analysis of the report that sellers’ hesitancy to put homes up for sale might mean prices won’t change that much.
“Would-be sellers are sticking their ground and holding tight to the inventory they currently own,” she wrote. “As a result, prices might not continue to plunge down as much as some projections anticipate.”
Nicole has been with Zillow since 2019 and a senior economist since August. Kudos to her for stating what all other economists are ignoring, like Mark Zandi and the other clowns who have decades of experience and keep telling people that real estate will be crushed any minute now.
I have a real problem with the common belief that we can’t predict the future.
I guarantee you that our local inventory in 2023 will be the lowest on record, and will be the major driver of market activity. How do I know? In all other previous downturns, the banks drove the market by dumping foreclosures for whatever the market would bear. But today, all we have is forever-home owners who are locked into a low-rate mortgage.
I will present evidence too. To demonstrate how potential home sellers are reacting to higher rates, consider the number of NSDCC listings that hit the market between September 1st and November 30th, which was when mortgage rates rose into the 6-plus range. Once homeowners think it’s a bad market, they DON’T PANIC, and instead, they wait it out.
NSDCC New Listings Between September 1st and November 30th:
2007: 1,140
2008: 1,146
2009: 1,064
2010: 1,112
2011: 1,094
2012: 921
2013: 998
2014: 1,004
2015: 1,072
2016: 1,052
2017: 939
2018: 1,099
2019: 990
2020: 1,072
2021: 644
2022: 523
The last time everyone thought it was a terrible time to sell was in the 2008-2009 era – and even then we had 1,000+ listings.
We have NEVER been in this environment before with so few choices. The ultra-low inventory is going to continue into 2023 and even if the Fed eases up and mortgage rates end up in the 5s, potential sellers are going to wait until the coast is clear, and everyone is talking about bidding wars again. GUARANTEED!
Spectacular Classic California estate above lovely Fallbrook. Sunsets here are amazing as are the inspiring western-facing panoramic views. Completely private and gated with a jaw-dropping resort-style pool and spa, this property is surrounded by other high-end estates. Five acres of useable land with several building sites for possible guesthouse, pool house or ADUs. Property has income-producing blood orange, lime and avocado trees the wonderful smell of the fruit blossoms can be overwhelming here! Built by custom builder Michael Pierce, the home has beams and high ceilings throughout and many recent upgrades including Montage European Oak wide plank hardwood flooring, new custom paint, quartz countertops, dual full-size Sub-Zero refrigerator/freezer and other new Kitchen Aid stainless appliances, Bosch dishwasher and Kitchen Aid double oven. Home inspection in-hand. This is a must-see property!
How the mainstream media is reporting today’s Case-Shiller numbers:
U.S. single-family home prices slowed further in September as higher mortgage rates eroded demand.
Monthly house prices fell in July for the first time since late 2018.
The housing market has been hammered by aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by dampening demand in the economy.
How it could/should be reported:
Higher rates are causing buyers AND sellers to wait-and-see.
Inventory is expected to be lower than ever in 2023.
Realtors aren’t offering viable solutions.
A guy on twitter said that the real story is that YoY appreciation is still positive, which should make the vast majority of American homeowners happy. But I commented on how the NAR is publishing articles now that ignore/omit the downturn. I think that those of us who are in the business of assisting consumers with their real estate decisions should give accurate advice on how to cope with the current market conditions.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Jun
425.26
-0.7%
+21.6%
Jul
414.03
-2.6%
+16.5%
Aug
402.62
-2.8%
+12.7%
Sep
394.18
-2.1%
+9.5%
While current homeowners might be relieved to see the big pop in appreciation over time, if they are thinking of moving, they should recalibrate everything they think they know about selling homes.
Impeccable and chic, this incredible gated custom Encinitas estate offers modern living in a central location and a life of leisure. An entertainers paradise bursting with a luxurious and smart design, the home comes complete with its own detached guest house retreat. Across its 1.24-acre lot, discover winding pathways lined by manicured grounds, lush landscaping, and palm trees outlining the perimeter. Admire the tasteful fusion of massive windows, stone, stucco, and IPE wood design elements characterizing its exterior, inviting you to explore inside. Upon passing through the captivating, covered entry, step into an immaculately crafted interior defined by soaring ceilings accentuated by thick wood beams, beautifully matching the exceptional millwork on show. Appreciate the gorgeous, engineered wide-plank white oak flooring and crisp white tones. Multiple windows with custom treatments allow radiant sunlight across the casual and formal gathering areas, creating fabulous spots for entertaining. From the sunlit great room with a sophisticated fireplace to the dining room that basks in stylish lighting’s glow, plenty of extravagances await your lucky guests. Newly remodeled to please the most discerning of cooks, the chef’s kitchen highlights Gaggenau and Miele appliances with a steam oven, quartz countertops, matte black cabinetry, and an oversized island.
Relax in the well-sized bedrooms, topped by a grand primary suite graced by its own fireplace and double walk-in closets. Escape the day’s stresses in its renovated, spa-like ensuite with heated floors, a soaking tub, and a large shower. Whether you’re hosting get-togethers or spending your weekends leisurely, you’ll have an array of bonus rooms, including a game room, sports areas, and a gym. Among the best places to relish the breathtaking ocean panoramas are the balconies, each overlooking a unique angle of spectacular scenery. For a resort-style outdoor experience, the fully fenced backyard treats you to a 13′ saltwater pool!
Will the 30-yr jumbo rate stay in the 5s? Here’s what MND says:
Excitement, volatility, non-stop action… concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two weeks. In fact, since rates plummeted in response to the November 10th CPI data, they’ve been as flat as we’ve seen in 2022.
This is the goal for financial markets and mortgage rates as they traverse a time frame like the Thanksgiving holiday, but it’s also a byproduct of relevant events. Specifically, inflation data dominates the landscape. It was no surprised to see a big reaction to the CPI data 2.5 weeks ago, and markets may largely be waiting for the next installment before the next substantial shift in rates.
This doesn’t mean rates will remain as flat as they have been–only that they may resist moving too far in either direction until they have more guidance from economic data and the Fed. This week will bring some of that economic data, but the next CPI report arrives on December 13th followed a day later by the next Fed announcement.
Fed speakers were making the rounds today reminding markets that there are more rate hikes to come. The Fed sees the strength of the jobs market as providing a cushion to be aggressive in its fight against inflation.
While the Fed will almost certainly continue to hike rates on the 14th (probably by 0.50%), financial markets have long since baked that assumption into current trading levels. That means today’s mortgage rates already account for the current Fed Funds Rate forecasts.
Even then, the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t dictate mortgage rates and is an imperfect indicator for rate momentum. Longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields typically begin falling sooner and by larger amounts in any given rate cycle. The past few weeks could be the first phase of that typical pattern (10yr Treasuries have dropped 0.30% versus 2yr Treasuries since then), but again, the continuation of that pattern depends on confirmation from upcoming inflation data.
Check out this attractively-priced Portico home with fully remodeled kitchen, LVP-hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms + loft and downstairs den, sumptuous primary suite with two walk-in closets, and upstairs laundry room. New paint and carpet, private yard, and cool front porch to watch the balloons go by! Live here and send your kids to Solana Ranch Elementary School – verified with the school district. The pool/clubhouse is like a 5-star resort! This home is a good distance away from Carmel Valley Road too. This same model sold for $2,086,000 on May 9th.
Check out this practically-new single-story house at the end of the culdesac with gorgeous canyon and sunset views! Thoroughly renovated with new kitchen and baths, new windows, new flooring & painted inside and out – this is move-in ready! High ceilings, central air, sparkling pool & spa, and new exterior/landscaping. Great schools too! Filled with natural light, this gem provides the upscale yet casual lifestyle at a very reasonable price!
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
