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These must be the seasonally-adjusted numbers.

How the mainstream media is reporting today’s Case-Shiller numbers:

  • U.S. single-family home prices slowed further in September as higher mortgage rates eroded demand.
  • Monthly house prices fell in July for the first time since late 2018.
  • The housing market has been hammered by aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by dampening demand in the economy.

How it could/should be reported:

  • Higher rates are causing buyers AND sellers to wait-and-see.
  • Inventory is expected to be lower than ever in 2023.
  • Realtors aren’t offering viable solutions.

A guy on twitter said that the real story is that YoY appreciation is still positive, which should make the vast majority of American homeowners happy.  But I commented on how the NAR is publishing articles now that ignore/omit the downturn. I think that those of us who are in the business of assisting consumers with their real estate decisions should give accurate advice on how to cope with the current market conditions.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Jun
425.26
-0.7%
+21.6%
Jul
414.03
-2.6%
+16.5%
Aug
402.62
-2.8%
+12.7%
Sep
394.18
-2.1%
+9.5%

While current homeowners might be relieved to see the big pop in appreciation over time, if they are thinking of moving, they should recalibrate everything they think they know about selling homes.

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