It’s a hot topic among real estate agents, but how widespread are the off-market sales?
We saw that in the last blog post that 155 NSDCC homes that have gone pending this year have already closed escrow. But let’s back it up to get a bigger sample and look at all of the 257 NSDCC sales in 2025 – including those that went pending last year.
Of the 257 sales, only 21 of them were sold off market, or 8% of the total number of sales.
Of the 21, only EIGHT were Compass listings. We’re not the only one!
Here is the crazy stat: Of the 21 off-market sales, TEN were sold to an outside brokerage!
It’s going to be rare when an agent takes a listing and just happens to have a buyer for it. Some of these double-enders are going to be the reverse – when an agent has a buyer and solicits sellers in the buyers’ desired area and gets lucky to find a deal. Most agents will input that sale as representing both parties even if they didn’t have a formal listing agreement with the seller – which is supposed to be required for MLS input (nobody checks them).
When representing a seller, I’m still not a fan of doing an off-market sale.
The only one we did was a year ago when the sellers agreed with me that this price may never happen again because it was based on another off-market pending sale of the same model (we closed first):
I wouldn’t want to be trying to sell for $2,175,000 in there today!
While there may be an occasional good reason to sell off-market, it’s not a big segment of the total sales. Reffkin said yesterday that 94% of Compass listings sell from open-market exposure via the MLS, and that will probably continue.
But it’s a sexy topic!
The NAR/MLS rules are the problem. In the near future, Compass and other brokerages will likely break away from NAR/MLS restrictions and use our website to expose our listings to the market – and/or we make a deal to share our listings with a national entity like homes.com.
It’s never been so important for home sellers to be bold and decisive when selling their house. Buyers are waiting patiently for new listings, and they will immediately jump at anything that looks great and is priced attractively – take advantage!
There have been 155 NSDCC listings that went pending this year that have already closed escrow. Their median is 19 days on market!
For a relatively higher-end market, it’s impressive that buyers react that quickly and it blows a hole in the idea that higher-end markets take longer to sell. For the same time period last year, the median was the same – 19 days on market!
Look at the difference – MOST of the homes (63%) found a buyer in the first 19 days, and they are getting all the money too:
Those sellers who insist on fighting the trend can look forward to a discount.
Here are the 58 homes that took 20+ days to find their buyer. Not only do they NOT know how much of a discount is coming, but the 20+ days could be months…and months:
Once a home is for sale but not selling, how do you know what to do?
Both buyers and sellers can apply my List-Price Accuracy Gauge:
Once the home is on the open market, if it is having….
Showings and offers, you are within 5% of being right on price.
Showings but no offers, you are 5% to 10% wrong on price.
No showings, then you are more than 10% wrong on price.
It’s nothing personal, it’s just a simple guide to know how close the price is to being right.
The serious buyers rush out the first week to take a look, but after that it’s crickets, with only an occasional visitor. It is tough for sellers to cope, or make adjustments. But once the initial urgency has run out, you have to do something – don’t just sit there.
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How quickly should sellers make adjustments? The DOM clock is ticking!
0-14 days on market – Hot property, and when the sellers have their maximum negotiating power.
14-30 days on market – Buyers get suspicious, want to pay under list.
30+ days on market – Buyers will be expecting deep discounts, or ignore it altogether.
After being unsold for two weeks, sellers will suspect that something is wrong. But it is natural to resist changing the price and instead blame everything else – especially the listing agent.
Sellers, and agents, need to shake that off and act quickly to keep the urgency higher. The first price reduction should be for at least 5% and happen in the first 15-30 days for maximum effectiveness. If the home doesn’t sell in the next two weeks, then another 5% is in order, and by then the fluff is eliminated.
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Where do sellers go wrong? They don’t properly price in the negatives.
Typically sellers just pick apart the comps to convince themselves why their home is the best around, and then settle on a list price that will show everyone who’s the boss. If you don’t have any negatives, then you probably will get your price! But typically sellers are forced to come to grips with the negatives of their house, and adjust accordingly.
Do sellers have to lower their price? No, not neccesarily.
There are other alternatives:
1. Make your house easier to show. Listing agents who insist on buyers jumping several hurdles just to see the home aren’t realistic about today’s market conditions. Make the home easy to see!
2. Fix the problems. New carpet and paint is the best thing you can do: 1) it looks clean, 2) it smells new, 3) you have to clean out your house to install it, and 4) you are managing a business transaction now – it is the logical solution. Utilize staging too.
3. Improve the internet presence. Have at least a 12-25 hi-res photos plus a simple youtube tour.
4.Wait for the market to catch up. If unsold for 60+ days, cancel and try again later – probably next year.
5. Reset the Days-on-Market stat. As long as the MLS allows agents to refresh their listings, then it’s in the best interest of the seller to reset the DOM. It is a gimmick, and instead sellers should concentrate on creating real value for buyers – that’s what will cause them to pay more.
The longer it takes to sell, the more discount the buyers will be expecting – usually about a 1% off for each week on the market. When other homes are flying off the market, the buyers’ obvious conclusion is that your price is wrong, and they load up the lowball offers.
Even if you complete one or all of the five ideas above, don’t be surprised if you need to lower the price too. Keep it attractive!
This 21,410sf property has hosted over 60 NBA players, including Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard. The NBA-sized basketball court in the basement comes complete with a pro scoreboard, loft, locker room with five bathrooms, and private parking. But that’s not all—there’s a $400,000 “Jordan Room”, showcasing over 290 rare Michael Jordan sneakers in a museum-quality display!
Other insane features include a Golf simulator, 9-hole putting green, 5 chipping pads, practice range, Jogging track wrapping around the entire property and resort style backyard!
Robert Reffkin has heard enough and wants to address the rumors:
Many of you have heard things like “Compass is trying to sell listings off-market,” and “Compass is trying to double end deals.” These misconceptions are intentionally designed to create fear in the industry.
Fiction: Compass is hurting sellers by keeping listings from the MLS. Fact: In 2024, 81% of Compass Coming Soons that sold off the MLS, sold at or above the final list price.
Fiction: Compass just wants to double-end more deals. Fact: 94% of Compass listings that sold in 2024, sold on the MLS.
To set the record straight, we want agents at every brokerage to know We Co-Broke With Everyone. By setting up a saved search for Compass Coming Soons, any agent at any brokerage can instantly receive alerts when new Compass Coming Soon listings become available.
Go to compass.com and search for listings in Coming Soon, then save your search!
The surge of active listings in January got a boost from last year’s unsolds coming right back on the market. Since then, the flow has moderated and looks somewhat sustainable if it stays at this pace.
It’s fairly easy to describe the NSDCC market today. The lower-end is warm/hot, and the higher-end is not:
:
The higher-end crowd (sellers and agents) want to believe that it just takes longer to sell these days, and they are content to wait it out. After all, they aren’t going to give it away!
It seems like there are enough sales happening under $4,000,000 that buyers aren’t being dangerously affected by more homes on the market. If there was going to be some reaction to additional inventory, you’d think it would be in the more-sensitive Under-$4M buyers.
My prediction of 15% to 20% more inventory hasn’t come true…..yet:
The site of the Golden Tee apartments was purchased for $23 million. The sellers have the right to make that kind of bank, and the buyers must have done their homework – and their plan of developing 218 apartments must have been within the existing rules. You can’t blame either of them for doing what they did. Blame the rule-makers.
It cost $30 million to build a 50-unit apartment house for homeless veterans, or $600,000 per unit. The City of Carlsbad contributed $8 million of it, yet there is talk of shutting it down after three years. How was that not foreseen as a possibility? Seems like a real boondoggle.
Schedule cancellation of utilities and services. Set up utilities at the new home too, especially the new internet provider!
Tenants on month-to-month need to give 30-day notice. You can give notice any day of the month – you don’t have to wait until the 1st of the month. To get your deposit back, conduct a walk-through inspection with the landlord to identify any changes in the condition of the home and who is responsible. The landlord has 21 days after the tenant vacates to return some or all of the deposit.
Going through your stuff. The biggest obstacle to moving is ‘going through your stuff’, and it is a major undertaking. The time required is relative to how much review of each item is needed, and it can take far longer than expected – days, weeks or months! You can never start too early! Organize everything into three piles: keep, donate, and recycle/trash. P.S. Your kids don’t want anything.
Order moving boxes and start packing. Even if you’re paying movers to pack your stuff (in which case you’ll still have to delegate tasks and oversee things), you will still want to pack some of your personal items. Besides boxes, get other supplies such as tape, Bubble Wrap, and permanent markers too. The moving/packing companies (including rental box companies) also sell packing supplies and can help estimate how much you’ll need.
Labeling. Clearly label and number each box with its contents and the room it’s destined for. Keep a separate inventory list, and be sure to label the boxes of essential items you’ll need right away.
Separate valuables. Add items such as jewelry and important files to a safe box that you’ll personally transport to your new home.
Bulky furniture. Moving costs often come down to weight or size, so ask yourself whether you’re ready to invest in an item again just to get it from point A to point B. Before the move, try selling couches, grills, patio furniture, and other big stuff that’s usable but not worth bringing along. You should check your furniture for dent and scratches before the moving company starts loading so you know if the moved furniture got dinged during the process.
Take photos. Photograph every room for easy memory later of what you have and where it went. It is especially helpful with setting up electronics.
Hire a moving company. There are many scams, so if it sounds too good to be true, it is. Some advertisers are merely brokers who agree to a low fee and then hire third-party movers. When they show up on your day of moving, the actual movers insist on re-negotiating the fee. Check the reviews and referrals from past customers! For interstate moves, the moving company should be licensed with a U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) number – search for it here. Keep your agreement handy on the day of moving.
Portable Containers. You can also rent a portable container and load it yourself, or you can hire a team to load it for you. This is an especially good option if you prefer loading a portable container slowly over a few weeks (make sure you have a very good lock and a secure spot to place the container, like a driveway). Many offer storage options at one of its facilities, so this is a solid storage alternative if you won’t be moving to the new place immediately.
Arrange for storage in your new community (if necessary). Your new home could be under renovations or there could be waiting period before you can take complete possession. Lease space in advance for short term storage of your heavy appliances or other valuable equipment.
Pack your personal essentials. Make sure to keep everyday essentials – including things like clothes, medication, and toiletries – separate and easily accessible. Packing your personal items in a suitcase will help set them apart. And if you choose to spend the night of your move in a hotel, rather than in the new location, they’ll be easier to transport.
Send notice of your new address. Changing your address may be a “before” or “after” item on your to-do list, depending on when you have access to your new place. Here are the places you should remember to notify when you’re changing your address: USPS, voter registration, doctors, credit-card companies, DMV, social-security office, employer, Amazon (or other stores that deliver to you), insurance companies, and friends & family.
Leaving town? Go for doctor check-ups, tune up your car, empty the safe-deposit box, refill prescriptions and say goodbye to old friends.
Treat yourself. At this point, all of your kitchen gear should be packed away, and all of your groceries will basically be consumed. Now is the time to get one last meal at your favorite neighborhood restaurant with friends or perhaps have a little glass of bubbly for the occasion. Even if you’ve followed all these instructions and are totally prepared, let’s face it – moving is a huge undertaking and one of the most stressful events in a person’s life. Do something relaxing, such as taking a quiet walk, meditating, or whatever else will calm your mind.
The Kids. Your kids will be going through their own stress about leaving their friends and comforts of home, plus the unknown ahead. Keep them involved with the process!
Don’t schedule anything for the day of the move. If you have kids or pets, consider sending them off with sitters for the day. And to be sure things are done the way you want, you or a trusted representative should be on hand (and are often required to be) to oversee the move, at both your old home and your new one.
Get cash. Tipping is not a requirement, but professional movers work hard, and many get paid just a little over minimum wage. The right thing to do is tip—roughly 15% to 20% of the total cost of the move—and in cash. If you can, try to tip each mover individually. If your friends are the only ones assisting with the move, you’ll still need some cash to tip the pizza-delivery person later.
Cleaning the old place. Give yourself a break – hire a pro to do a deep cleaning once you’re gone; it will likely lower your stress. This is also the time to spackle over any nail holes in walls and repair tiny damages. Use the thicker contractor clean-up bags.
Return your keys. In the rush and chaos of a move, it’s easy to forget one final step: returning keys. Be sure to return them to your landlord (though this will typically happen when you do a final walk-through). Or coordinate with your real estate agent on how to hand keys and clickers over to the new owners/realtors.
Travel Kit. Set aside a kit for specialty items, like toilet paper, paper towels, plastic cutlery, scissors, garbage bags, phone chargers, pet food, and snacks for you and the kids.
The San Diego County annual tax sale is coming up on March 17th – St. Patrick’s Day!
The house above is the most expensive on the list, and would be a deal if you can snag it. Hard to believe how they could rack up a million dollars in back taxes on a house with no mortgages, but I guess it’s possible. These are usually the ones that get redeemed prior to the auction, and/or investors are knocking doors in advance to make deals:
Here’s another one. The house with no mortgages on record was quitclaimed to the owner in 2007 but the tax amount is relatively low, given itzillowsfor more than a million dollars:
They only require a $1,000 deposit to play, and it’s all online! Luck of the Irish to you!
Gary came to the open house last weekend and suggested Rosarito Beach as a possible destination for San Diegans. He has checked it out carefully and likes the prospects.
I wasn’t aware until Gary mentioned it that the border has a fast-track lane so you don’t have to wait for hours to cross. I think this is it:
Rob did a blog post (behind the paywall but consider subscribing if you’re interested in residential real estate selling trends) where he thinks the Clear Cooperation Policy is cooked. Even though most of the big players are supportive of the policy in public, it’s just a matter of time before it collapses.
A reader noted that eXp has been publicly advertising their Private Exclusives since 2023:
All the other big brokerages are doing private exclusives too, or prepared to do it. Rob thinks that more brokerages will be forced to publicly offer their private exclusives just to retain their big agent teams….who might be lured to join Compass if they don’t.
I’d like to take it a step further.
Let’s factor in the market conditions.
It is very likely that the the real estate market will turn sluggish shortly. Yes, I know we got a reprieve this week with mortgage rates and you might be able to get into the low-6% range by paying a point or two. But it won’t change the course we’re on.
The inventory of homes for sale is growing everywhere in America. But sales aren’t growing.
By summer there will be a glut of homes for sale.
Sellers will be motivated to lower their price substantially to get out, and/or buyers will lowball them substantially. Either way, the glut will keep growing because sellers and agents are totally unprepared for such conditions and sales will falter.
The older realtors have to been inching closer to retirement every day, and even if they still have a box of business cards, do they have the chops for a slow market? It’s been 10+ years since we’ve had anything besides a roaring seller’s market – does anyone remember what to do?
I doubt it.
It will cause the Big Pause.
Sellers aren’t going to give it away, so they will wait.
Agents won’t know what to do, so they will wait.
Buyers are comfortable on the fence, so they will wait.
It will bring more seasonality to the market. The second half of every year will be sluggish and boring, especially around the holidays when everyone agrees that with all the inaction, they might as well take a couple of months off.
The spring selling season will start earlier, which has already been the trend here over the last three years. The buyers are back out in January, loaded with hope. But picky as ever. A few hundred buyers land an acceptable deal while the rest wait comfortably.
I hope you can deal with that!
The brokerages will be in panic mode and NAR might as well quit now while they are behind. With no other alternatives, everyone will adopt the privates exclusives as a last-ditch solution to stay afloat.
There should be major consolidation among brokerages – but Compass isn’t going to buy everyone! The realtor population should decline rapidly, and the rest will adapt to the new world of no MLS and private exclusives. We will be just like the commercial brokers.
And it’s going to come on us fast – probably by the end of 2025. The ingredients are all there!
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
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