Rob did a blog post (behind the paywall but consider subscribing if you’re interested in residential real estate selling trends) where he thinks the Clear Cooperation Policy is cooked. Even though most of the big players are supportive of the policy in public, it’s just a matter of time before it collapses.

A reader noted that eXp has been publicly advertising their Private Exclusives since 2023:

https://life.exprealty.com/exp-access-off-market-listings/

All the other big brokerages are doing private exclusives too, or prepared to do it. Rob thinks that more brokerages will be forced to publicly offer their private exclusives just to retain their big agent teams….who might be lured to join Compass if they don’t.

I’d like to take it a step further.

Let’s factor in the market conditions.

It is very likely that the the real estate market will turn sluggish shortly. Yes, I know we got a reprieve this week with mortgage rates and you might be able to get into the low-6% range by paying a point or two. But it won’t change the course we’re on.

The inventory of homes for sale is growing everywhere in America. But sales aren’t growing.

By summer there will be a glut of homes for sale.

Sellers will be motivated to lower their price substantially to get out, and/or buyers will lowball them substantially. Either way, the glut will keep growing because sellers and agents are totally unprepared for such conditions and sales will falter.

The older realtors have to been inching closer to retirement every day, and even if they still have a box of business cards, do they have the chops for a slow market? It’s been 10+ years since we’ve had anything besides a roaring seller’s market – does anyone remember what to do?

I doubt it.

It will cause the Big Pause.

Sellers aren’t going to give it away, so they will wait.

Agents won’t know what to do, so they will wait.

Buyers are comfortable on the fence, so they will wait.

It will bring more seasonality to the market. The second half of every year will be sluggish and boring, especially around the holidays when everyone agrees that with all the inaction, they might as well take a couple of months off.

The spring selling season will start earlier, which has already been the trend here over the last three years. The buyers are back out in January, loaded with hope. But picky as ever. A few hundred buyers land an acceptable deal while the rest wait comfortably.

I hope you can deal with that!

The brokerages will be in panic mode and NAR might as well quit now while they are behind. With no other alternatives, everyone will adopt the privates exclusives as a last-ditch solution to stay afloat.

There should be major consolidation among brokerages – but Compass isn’t going to buy everyone! The realtor population should decline rapidly, and the rest will adapt to the new world of no MLS and private exclusives. We will be just like the commercial brokers.

And it’s going to come on us fast – probably by the end of 2025. The ingredients are all there!