NAR Lawsuits

People are asking about the NAR lawsuits – hat tip to Susie, Gerry, and Carl!

The lawsuit that began this week contends that realtors force sellers to pay a commission to the buyer’s agent. Two defendants, ReMax and Anywhere (Coldwell Banker, Sotheby’s, etc.) have already come to settlement agreements, though they haven’t been approved by the judge yet. The other two brokerages, Keller Williams and Berkshire Hathaway, plus the National Association of Realtors are the remaining defendants. Their attorney started the proceedings by declaring that the plaintiffs have the burden of proof, and the defense may not call a witness. It is that type of arrogance that got them into this mess!

A summary:

In their trial brief, the plaintiffs in the suit allege that NAR’s Participation Rule, which they refer to as the Mandatory Offer of Compensation Rule, is “a market-shaping and distorting rule” that stifles innovation and competition.

“The Rule requires every home seller to offer payment to the broker representing their adversary, the buyer, even though the buyer’s broker is retained by and owes a fiduciary obligation to the buyer (who may be told, falsely, that the services of the buyer broker are “free”),” the brief said.

They argue that the current practice of the seller’s agent splitting their commission with the buyer’s agent, who typically negotiates for a lower selling price for their client, works against the seller’s interest and only exists due to the alleged anticompetitive rules. The plaintiffs also note that the NAR rule in question requires a blanket offer of compensation for the buyer’s broker regardless of their experience or the level of service they provide the buyers with, and that the compensation offer was only visible to the buyer’s agent and not their clients, until very recently.

“This artificial and severed market structure created by Defendants’ conduct deters price-cutting competition and innovation, resulting in inflated commissions,” the brief states. “The Mandatory NAR Rules impede the ability of a free market to function in the residential real estate industry, and the plain purpose and/or effect of the Rules is to raise, inflate, or stabilize commission rates.”

In the brief, the plaintiffs claim that the other defendants in the suit colluded with NAR to enforce this and other NAR and MLS policies.

“The Corporate Defendants compel compliance in multiple ways, including by requiring their franchisees, subsidiaries, brokers, and agents become members of NAR; writing the NAR Rules into their own corporate documents; and requiring that their franchisees, subsidiaries, brokers, and agents become members of and participants in the Subject MLSs — entities that compel NAR membership and adopt the mandatory NAR Rules,” the brief reads.

The brief notes that Craig Schulman, the director of Berkeley Research Group and professor of economic data analytics at Texas A&M University, will be an expert witness for the plaintiffs at trial. In studying transaction data from NAR and other parties, the brief states the Schulman has concluded that “(a) the NAR Rules have anticompetitive effects; (b) the NAR Rules caused a seller to pay his adversary (buyer broker) and that, but for the conspiracy, a seller would not pay the buyer broker; and (c) all class members were impacted.”

The brief also notes that Schulman will testify that NAR’s rules have stabilized commission rates at an “anticompetitive level,” noting that commissions have remained at 6% for several years.

Unfortunately, none of the reality of what happens on the street will get introduced during the trial. Instead, it will be ivory-tower guys hoping to persuade the judge and jury (one of which has to breast-feed her infant every 1.5 hours) that the whole commission thing is out of control and someone is to blame.

But the defendants have a good point:

NAR also argued that the plaintiffs do not have the ability to sue for damages —which some believe could reach as much as $4 billion in this case — because under federal and Missouri antitrust law, only “direct purchasers” can be allowed to sue and the plaintiffs have not bought anything directly from NAR or the other defendants.

“And, according to those same Model Rules and listing agreements, Plaintiffs did not directly pay cooperating agents, NAR, or the other Defendants; sellers only directly pay their listing agents and only directly receive services from their own agents,” the brief states. “Therefore, at best, Plaintiffs might claim that they paid their listing agents (who are not parties to this case) who, only then, paid Defendants. But such an indirect claim is prohibited by Supreme Court case law.”

Home sellers pay the full commission to the listing brokerage.  It is the listing agent who declares in the original listing agreement of how much of the full commission they are willing to pay the buyer’s agent. None of this will be discussed during this trial, but it’s the most important part!

The plaintiffs should be suing the individual listing agents – good luck with that!

In the end, the defendants might be found guilty, and they will appeal for years – the American way! Or it’s more likely that they will settle in the next couple of weeks because the ReMax and Anywhere settlements were only $55 million and $85 million, which is pennies.

Part of the settlement package will be that the MLS will no longer be obligated to display ANY commission to be paid to the buyer’s agent. It will cause two things to happen:

  1. MORE steering by the buyer-agents to the homes that are paying a healthy commission (bounty).
  2. Buyer-agents trying to convince their buyers to pay them the buyer-side commission.

Kayla is faced with this dilemma in New York City. Did you know that 2/3’s of the population in Manhattan are renters? It’s a big business! But the listing agents don’t offer a tenant-agent commission, which means Kayla has to get paid by her tenants upon finding them new home to rent.

The results:

  1. She has had the landlord’s listing agent pull aside her potential tenant and tell her to ditch Kayla and save the money, and go through him directly. Apparently they aren’t concerned with their reputations!
  2. She has also had her potential tenants be reluctant to sign an tenant-agent agreement because they see apartments being advertised by the listing agents. They want to reserve the right to go direct to the listing agent, and usually they do. As a result, Kayla only works with those who appreciate her advice.

The idea that home buyers will hire and pay their own buyer-agents is a great idea…..in theory.

The reality is that buyers will go direct to the listing agents when they see an interesting new home for sale. Those listing agents will be advertising to those buyers directly, and flat-out encourage them to get a better deal by going through them.

The buyer-agent is a dead man walking.

Eighterater

How are those expert opinions doing?

Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, was acknowledged as the best forecaster in America last year when he was honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy, one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in economic forecasting.

The winner is selected based on the accuracy of forecasts published in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter, compiled and edited by Haver Analytics, Inc. “It is a real honor for the Fannie Mae forecast team to be recognized with the Lawrence R. Klein Award,” said Duncan.

“The award is based on the smallest average error for GDP, CPI, and unemployment over the past four years,” says Professor of Economics Dennis Hoffman, director of the Office of the University Economist at ASU. “I commend Doug Duncan and his team at Fannie Mae for their remarkable predictions during a period of extensive market fluctuation and instability.”

He predicted we’d be at 4.4% today – the reality:

 

Trophy Properties

Remember when Doug said that buyers these days want something special? With all the domestic and international conflicts, mortgage rates at 16-year highs, and ultra-low inventory making the house-hunting almost unbearable for most buyers, there are still homes selling – the ones with something special.

We received four offers and closed escrow in two weeks with a cash buyer who paid $75,000 over list!

San Diego Is Most Expensive

San Diego is #1! Hat tip to Mitch for sending this in:

According to the magazine, the Value Index measures how comfortably the average resident of a metro area can afford to live within their means. Specifically, it looks at housing affordability, as well as federal data on the parity between regional prices and national averages.

Home prices were one of the factors that pushed San Diego up on the ranking, given that average prices are considerably higher than the national rate.

In August, the median price for a single-family home came in right at $1 million for the first time in the region’s history — nearly $650,000 more than the national average by some estimates.

U.S. News and World Report also pointed to additional fees that San Diego residents have to pay, such as homeowners association dues or apartment complex maintenance costs, as another factor driving its unaffordability.

However, the magazine said that many residents are willing to pay elevated prices relating to cost-of-living, given other aspects of the region that make it an ideal place to live.

They added that some San Diegans often refer “to the cost-of-living differences as the ‘sunshine tax,’ or price of enjoying a year-round temperate climate.”

Many of the other metro areas that were placed along the top 10 have similar “sunny” reputations with their climate, including cities Los Angeles, Honolulu, Miami and Santa Barbara.

Los Angeles, which came in second place on the ranking, was also given a score of 3.3 for residents’ ability to afford living there. Although, San Diego’s northern neighbor comparatively had lower scores for other metrics used by the magazine to look at “best places to live,” including the overall and quality of life indexes.

A full list of the top 25 “most expensive places to live” in the U.S. can be found here. San Diego is #1.

This ranking comes as inflation rate nationwide remains to a persistent problem for federal officials, but San Diegans seem to have been feeling it even more.

In San Diego, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that the city exceeded the year-to-year national rate of inflation, which was around 3.7% in September. Over the last 12 months, prices in the San Diego area advanced about 4.7% overall, according to the bureau.

Housing costs have been one of the most pressing issues facing elected officials, with prices skyrocketing for both buyers and renters due to a continued lack of available units to meet the demand in the region.

https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3196358711262-san-diego-takes-top-spot-in-ranking-of-most-expensive-places-to-live-in-u-s

NSDCC September Sales

Even as the doom continues to pour in from other areas that aren’t as fortunate as the North San Diego County coastal region, our home sales are defying expectations. Two facts:

  1. In September, 2022, there were 146 sales with a median sales price of $1,940,000 (16% lower).
  2. There have already been 66 sales closed this month, and the current MSP is $2,150,000.

Although it would seem like a miracle, having 100+ sales per month in the fourth quarter of 2023 with a median sales price staying above $2,000,000 looks possible.

More Housing Support

The White House issued a press release today that outlines more money to bolster prop up the FHA loans:

For millions of Americans homeownership is a foundation for so many parts of their lives, and for many it is also their primary source of wealth. The Biden-Harris Administration is committed to expanding access to homeownership, ensuring homeowners can afford to stay in their homes and make the repairs they need, and that the wealth building potential of homeownership works equally for everyone.

Todaythe Biden-Harris Administration is releasing new data showing major federal investment in homeownership, and announcing key new actions to accelerate progress. These actions make important strides, but given the lack of homes on the market and current interest rates, to truly ensure homeownership is accessible to all households, we need Congress to act. That is why President Biden proposed $16 billion for the Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit, which would result in more than 400,000 homes built or rehabilitated, creating a pathway for more families to buy a home and start building wealth.  The President has also proposed a $10 billion down payment assistance program that would ensure first-time homebuyers whose parents do not own a home can access homeownership alongside a $100 million down payment assistance pilot to expand homeownership opportunities for first-generation and/or low wealth first-time homebuyers.

I love this new way to qualify – they will count the prospective income you might get from an ADU:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/16/white-house-announces-new-actions-on-homeownership/

Inventory Watch

Recently the president of the local association of realtors was asked what the real estate market will do in the future. His response: “Nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future”. Of course, immediately after that comment he said, “Interest rates have to drop to 5.5%. Then you’ll see everyone get excited and say, ‘Hey, let’s sell our house and get another one.'”

Even if mortgage rates to go back to 5.5%, people are living in their forever home. The difficulty of finding a better home for a decent price will overwhelm any minor inconvenience at their existing home.

I don’t mind predicting the future. The rest of 2023 is going to look a lot like it did last year:

Next year, the inventory should grow quickly in the April-July time frame. Price will fix everything else!

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