How will the rest of 2024 play out? Like last year, sales will probably fade away unless more sellers are so motivated that they adjust their price in time. The number of NSDCC active listings has stayed under 400 all year - until this week. Today there are 421 active...
Market Conditions
All Cash
The locked-in effect has been bandied about for the last couple of years as the reason why the inventory remains thin. But it's not stopping those who want to pay cash and avoid a mortgage altogether - every area is showing increases in the all-cash purchases. If you...

Off-Market
This is the #1 reason I went to Compass, and I didn't really feel like I had a choice. When realtors get disrupted, this is the way the big brokerages can survive while the little guys die. Hoard the listings in-house as 'private exclusives', like they do in the...
Overly Optimistic
Pardon the casual presentation. I'm used to working with this same basic graph format but it's limited to 50 datapoints - we'd really like to take these back a few years to see the long-term trends. But in early 2023, the active listings in the $3M - $4M category were...
San Diego is #180
From the U-T: San Diego County has very little chance of a big housing downturn but also isn’t exactly the most secure market in the nation, according to a new report. Out of 580 counties, San Diego County was the No. 180 most likely to experience a downturn, said a...
NSDCC SP:LP Ratio
Another good way to anticipate the market trends is to check the direction of the SP:LP ratio: NSDCC Monthly Sales and SP:LP Ratio Month # of Sales Median LP Median SP SP:LP Jan 2022 149 $2,099,999 $2,200,000 105% Feb 169 $2,099,999 $2,300,000 110% Mar 219 $2,384,000...
NSDCC Active Listings By Week
The blip in active listings over the last week isn't too concerning and could just be from the weather. The count of active listings is a good indicator of the demand though. During the mega-frenzy conditions from late-2020 through early-2022, you can see that the new...
Zillow Tailwinds
It’s a new year and many, including Zillow economists, are optimistic. After a year in which almost half of agents reported selling one home or less, optimism is a valuable tool. To that end, there are a few major macroeconomic tailwinds that might fuel the early...
First LCV Listing of 2024
La Costa Valley (1,073 single-family homes) Annual Sales: The new rule about getting profits tax-free went into effect in 1997, and it motivated people to move! The sales history of this house is an example of how it used to be - make a little money and be on your...
Fewer Sales = More Commotion
There have only been 83 NSDCC sales recorded in December, 2023, which means we may not make it to 100 closings. January isn't looking too good either, and from what I can find, we've never had less than 100 monthly sales, let alone in back-to-back months. But it's...