This house sold for $375,000 when new in 2000.
The Edge of Carlsbad
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Frenzy
Inventory Watch
Statistically, the frenzy should continue to be impressive - it's been red-hot for so long that it could cool off 25% and still be a vibrant marketplace. It will depend on the flow of homes coming to market, which we've had an uptick over the last two weeks - and the...
Inventory Levels
These two graphs show the dilemma - even though the new listings have been increasing steadily: They are getting snapped up so fast that the number of active (unsold) listings are historically low: ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Frenzy Monitor
Here’s our bimonthly check on how the actives and pendings are faring. Two weeks ago it was suggested, “We were driving 135 MPH, and now we’re down to 127 MPH”. We're probably down to 100 MPH now. For the first time in months, the total number of active and pending...
Inventory Watch
As the vacation season kicks in, the frenzy may become a little more manageable - only because there could be fewer buyers vying for each new listing. But the environment won't change until we get a flood of inventory, which isn't happening yet: NSDCC New Listings...
Rising Home Prices Are Slowing
Mike thinks this year's price explosion was unusual, and is working its way back to a more-normal pace. I agree with Mike, and think the market will split, with those products that have been the hottest (one-story homes, family homes with yards and pools, etc.) will...
More Frenzy Measuring
Based on these closed sales, the local frenzy has been steady this year - though these are results of buying decisions made as far back as January and February. For the most part, we have as many or more sales, and the same or higher LP:SP ratios over the last 60 days...
Inventory Watch
It is extremely unusual to have more pending listings than actives - I can't remember a time when it has ever happened before, and certainly not at these record prices. You can tell your grandkids that you remember when! This week, we did have the lowest number of new...
Frenzy Duration
This graph is charting the local Case-Shiller Index. The latest reading is from March, so these trends are reflecting the first quarter of 2021 - which means these lines will be going straight up for at least another 2-3 readings before there is any chance of a...
Over List, May
The number of May sales dropped month-over-month, even when we tack on another 10-25 late-reporters to the current tally: NSDCC April sales: 357 NSDCC May Sales: 294 The April, 2021 sales were 35% higher than in April, 2019, but this year's May sales were about the...
