The number of May sales dropped month-over-month, even when we tack on another 10-25 late-reporters to the current tally:
NSDCC April sales: 357
NSDCC May Sales: 294
The April, 2021 sales were 35% higher than in April, 2019, but this year’s May sales were about the same as in 2019 (297). Was it due to less inventory? Not really:
NSDCC April Listings: 378
NSDCC May Listings: 371
But about the same percentage of buyers paid over list price:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price
January: 38%
February: 43%
March: 53%
April: 55%
May: 54%
Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list.
The big winners who got 20% or more over list:
Most % Over List Price
| List Price | ||
| $985,000 | ||
| $1,495,000 | ||
| $1,349,000 | ||
| $1,375,000 | ||
| $1,500,000 |
Is anyone surprised that sales are slowing down?
Not when you consider how fast the pricing went up just between April and May. The average list price jumped $200,000, and median list price increased $100,000 in just one month:
NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Listings
Average List Price, April: $2,396,667
Average List Price, May: $2,596,992 (+8%)
Median List Price, April: $1,799,900
Median List Price, May: $1,900,000 (+6%)
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But how we measure the sales prices went up more. The average sales price went up $177,753, and the median sales price went up $166,500 – which is a 9% INCREASE IN ONE MONTH!
NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Sales
Average Sales Price, April: $2,403,962
Average Sales Price, May: $2,581,715 (+7%)
Median Sales Price, April: $1,828,000
Median Sales Price, May: $1,994,500 (+9%)
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Percentage Who Paid Over List By Price Range:
Under $1.0M: 89% of all sales
$1.0M – $1.5M: 84%
$1.5M – $2.0M: 72%
$2.0M – $3.0M: 34%
Over $3.0M: 22%
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It is natural to have sales decline with rapid price increases. The buyers at the margins can get priced out in a week or two, and then we have others who give up and aren’t going to play this game any more – or not until it becomes more rational.
We could be in for a Frenzy Soft Landing, where fewer sellers get lucky as we coast into the pricing plateau that should be coming later this year.
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When was the last time time we had a “soft landing” or “permanently high plateau”?
$2m houses make for creative solutions. Glad I am not being forced to play.
When was the last time time we had a “soft landing” or “permanently high plateau”?
We came off the last big frenzy ok in 2014-2017. It got a little tough in 2018 & 2019 but covid fixed it.
The ‘permanently high plateau’ has never happened because we used to have foreclosures which provided the ebb & flow. We just have flow now.