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The number of  May sales dropped month-over-month, even when we tack on another 10-25 late-reporters to the current tally:

NSDCC April sales: 357

NSDCC May Sales: 294

The April, 2021 sales were 35% higher than in April, 2019, but this year’s May sales were about the same as in 2019 (297). Was it due to less inventory? Not really:

NSDCC April Listings: 378

NSDCC May Listings: 371

But about the same percentage of buyers paid over list price:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, % Closed Over List Price

January: 38%

February: 43%

March: 53%

April: 55%

May: 54%

Most sellers and agents are happy just to get 1% to 5% over list.

The big winners who got 20% or more over list:

Most % Over List Price

List Price
Sales Price
Percentage Over List Price
$985,000
$1,251,000
27%
$1,495,000
$1,900,000
27%
$1,349,000
$1,657,500
23%
$1,375,000
$1,688,000
23%
$1,500,000
$1,850,000
23%

Is anyone surprised that sales are slowing down?

Not when you consider how fast the pricing went up just between April and May. The average list price jumped $200,000, and median list price increased $100,000 in just one month:

NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Listings

Average List Price, April: $2,396,667

Average List Price, May: $2,596,992 (+8%)

Median List Price, April: $1,799,900

Median List Price, May: $1,900,000 (+6%)

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But how we measure the sales prices went up more. The average sales price went up $177,753, and the median sales price went up $166,500 – which is a 9% INCREASE IN ONE MONTH!

NSDCC Pricing of Monthly Sales

Average Sales Price, April: $2,403,962

Average Sales Price, May: $2,581,715 (+7%)

Median Sales Price, April: $1,828,000

Median Sales Price, May: $1,994,500 (+9%)

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Percentage Who Paid Over List By Price Range:

Under $1.0M: 89% of all sales

$1.0M – $1.5M: 84%

$1.5M – $2.0M: 72%

$2.0M – $3.0M: 34%

Over $3.0M: 22%

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It is natural to have sales decline with rapid price increases. The buyers at the margins can get priced out in a week or two, and then we have others who give up and aren’t going to play this game any more – or not until it becomes more rational.

We could be in for a Frenzy Soft Landing, where fewer sellers get lucky as we coast into the pricing plateau that should be coming later this year.

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