A former federal regulator who served when the 2006 housing bubble burst is concerned that today’s housing market is on an unsustainable path. The housing market’s affordability is worse than it’s been in decades as mortgage rates toy with 8%. The median price of a...
Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, believes mortgage rates could remain around 7 percent for most of 2024. However, he thinks rates have likely crested: “I believe we’ve already reached the peak in terms of interest rates.". Within two years, he says, the rate...
We're in the forecasting time of year! The chart above is from Realtor.com. We are used to the ivory-tower types who don't bother to get out of their office or even pick up a phone. They just shine up their previous guess with some current events, like lower mortgage...
Ok, ok - yesterday I said that we're at the highest pricing ever, but the San Diego non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index isn't quite there yet. But it feels like record pricing around the north county coastal region, doesn't it? The index dropped eight months in...
Morgan Stanley analysts previously expected national home prices to fall 4% in 2023, as the housing market continued to crater, and reaffirmed their pessimistic forecast in April of this year. But the analysts recently changed their tune in a big way: They now say...
Recently the president of the local association of realtors was asked what the real estate market will do in the future. His response: "Nobody knows what the market is going to do in the future". Of course, immediately after that comment he said, "Interest rates have...
The local real estate market between La Jolla and Carlsbad has been fairly healthy lately, and feels in better shape than it did last year at this time when we were still getting over the initial shock or higher rates. How will the rest of this year turn out? The...
The local index is about where it was last month AND last year at this time. It is 3% below the peak of last May, and +9.6% year-to-date. It wouldn't surprise me if it slides downward ~3% the rest of 2023, then up ~3% in the first half of 2024, then down ~3% in the...
The Fed paused alright - Jerome just talks up the rates now! Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analysis, it's not that the market is expecting the Fed to be...
We are back to peak pricing! But it sure doesn't seem like a good time to sell your house, and as a result, most potential sellers will pack it in and wait until The Home-Selling Season of 2024. Is there anything wrong with waiting until next year? Mortgage rates...
