We’re in the forecasting time of year!
The chart above is from Realtor.com. We are used to the ivory-tower types who don’t bother to get out of their office or even pick up a phone. They just shine up their previous guess with some current events, like lower mortgage rates, and tell everyone we’re going to be fine.
But their guess that sales will be up 11% in San Diego is preposterious, and giving credit to lower rates doesn’t address the ultra-low inventory that is so likely to persist:
For sales to increase by 11% means that inventory will have to increase by the same or higher amount. While an 11% to 20% increase in the number of homes for sale would be fantastic for the market, there is virtually no evidence to support that idea – other than I have three listings booked already.
https://www.realtor.com/research/top-housing-markets-2024/
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If you’d like to make your own predictions, here is some local data (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
NSDCC Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Nov 30
I’m guessing that sales will be flat/same in 2024, and the median sales price will be +4%.
Why? Because I think we’ll see mortgage rates in the sixes, which will help to energize the demand. The number of listings may grow slightly but not up by more than +10% and many will be wronger on price, which will cause the number of sales to be about the same as they were in 2023.
We know it will be hot during the selling season, it’s what happens in the second half of the year that will drag down the median sales price.
Here’s what I thought last December:
San Diego County Detached-Home Listings & Sales, Jan 1 to Nov 30:
I agree with your assessment.
There likely will be more inventory available next year unfortunately sellers won’t be under pressure to sell which means they’ll just stick with higher prices.
It will be interesting to see what happens with rentals. Specifically, the high-end rental market. I’d assume that people that don’t need to sell will try to rent out their properties before selling at a loss.
Thanks and I agree with yours.
The wild card is what the inheritees do with the homes they aren’t moving into.
Will they spruce them up and go for retail? Or dump and run?
Two or three dump-and-runs in a specific neighborhood will impact the values there.
Had a dump and run in our neighborhood here last month. You know the home well Jim. Sold at 1.8 and change and same exact model match is left standing listed at 2.25. Bad news for the current listing…
Our kids will dump and run if the property tax basis has to jump to market assessment per Prop 19 death tax law…can’t believe they would be the only ones.
Prop 19 death tax law
Thank the CAR for that one
As long as it results in more listings, they couldn’t care less about their clients
It backfired though as more kids decide to move into the parents house and live happily ever after….in the 70’s decor.